Game of the week: 5 things to know about Baylor-Oklahoma

Each Friday, we spotlight the best game that weekend. This week, it’s No. 8 Oklahoma (9-0) at No. 13 Baylor (7-2) in a Big 12 showdown.

Oklahoma, which is 9-0 for the first time since 2004, has the nation’s longest winning streak, at 17 games; the Sooners’ last loss was to Iowa State on October 3, 2020. And winning on the road is old hat for the Sooners, who are 17-2 (.895) in true road games under Lincoln Riley. In addition, OU has scored at least 30 points in 35 consecutive true road games.

The contest kicks off at noon ET on Fox; Gus Johnson will handle the play-by-play and Joel Klatt is the analyst.

Here are five things to know about the Baylor-Oklahoma game, plus the predicted final score from the On3 national staff.

1. Oklahoma QB Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams was a consensus five-star recruit and the No. 1 prospect in the On3 2021 rankings. He didn’t play his senior season of high school football because COVID canceled the season in Washington, D.C., and barely played in the Sooners’ first five games. But he started the second half against Texas, rallying OU from an 18-point halftime deficit to a 55-48 victory, and has been the guy ever since. In the past 14 quarters (the second half vs. the Longhorns and ensuing games against TCU, Kansas and Texas Tech), he has accounted for 1,307 yards of total offense (93.4 per quarter!) and 18 TDs. Now, none of those teams are the defensive equal of Baylor, but the numbers obviously are impressive and his strong arm and running ability have opened up OU’s offense. In those 14 quarters, the Sooners scored 174 points (12.4 per quarter). For whatever reason, the Sooners’ offense looks more fully formed with Williams, with RB Kennedy Brooks re-emerging and more receivers getting involved. It’s a testament to Williams’ talent and productivity that he is a legit Heisman candidate entering the final three weeks of the regular season even though he basically has played just those 14 quarters.

2. Baylor RB Abram Smith

Abram Smith (5 feet 11, 221 pounds) is one of the most physical running backs nationally, not surprising when you consider he started four games at linebacker last season. He returned to running back — the position he played from 2017-19 — in the spring, and has been a revelation. Smith is ninth nationally in rushing yards (1,055) and first in yards per carry (7.33) among the 65 backs nationally with at least 125 carries. He has rushed for 11 TDs and has six 100-yard games. His emergence has sparked a Baylor offensive turnaround. The Bears averaged 90.3 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry last season; this season, those numbers are 231.6 (seventh nationally) and 5.9 (third). Oklahoma has been solid against the run, allowing 110.9 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry. Worth noting, though, is that Kansas and TCU made it a priority to run against the Sooners; those two teams combined to run for 349 yards and average 4.4 yards per carry.

3. Baylor’s defense

There are a lot of different defense stats, but limiting points is the object of playing defense and Baylor has done a good job of that. The Bears have held all nine opponents below their scoring averages; indeed, Baylor foes are scoring 8.5 points below their average in other games when facing the Bears. (Oklahoma averages 42.9 points, and Baylor has not allowed more than 30 this season.) NT Siaki Ika, a transfer from LSU, is a 350-pounder in the middle of the line who requires a lot of attention from opposing offensive lines; in turn, that helps LBs Terrel Bernard and Dillon Doyle (an Iowa transfer) not have to wade through a lot of bodies to get to the ball. Ika also provides a pass rush right up the gut, as he leads the Bears with 3.5 sacks. S Jalen Pitre is the guy to watch; he is a big-play machine, with an astounding 12.5 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles, two picks, five pass breakups, a fumble return and three quarterback hurries. Pitre, a fifth-year senior, is part of a veteran secondary: All five starters are seniors and there is a combined 23 years of college experience. OU’s offense will be the best Baylor has seen. Will the Bears hold up?

4. Big 12 race

Oklahoma is the only team unbeaten in the league; it owns a one-game lead over Oklahoma State and a two-game advantage over Baylor and Iowa State. Coincidentally, those are OU’s final three regular-season opponents: Baylor on Saturday, Iowa State on November 20 and Oklahoma State on November 27. There will be some sort of rematch in the Big 12 championship game (there has to be because of the league’s round-robin schedule), and this game could eliminate Baylor from the discussion. The Bears beat Iowa State but lost to Oklahoma State. In turn, Iowa State beat Oklahoma State. Baylor also lost to TCU last week, while Iowa State also has lost to West Virginia.

5. Recent history

This will be the 32^nd meeting, and all but five have happened since the formation of the Big 12 in 1996. The teams have played annually since ’96, and OU owns a commanding 28-3 series lead. OU won the first 15 meetings in the Big 12, and currently owns a seven-game winning streak over the Bears. OU won 27-14 last season, the first time since 1998 that the winning team didn’t score at least 30 points. Fourteen times this century, the winning team has scored at least 40.

On3 predictions

Mike Huguenin: Baylor 31-28
Ivan Maisel: Oklahoma 34-28
Charles Power: Oklahoma 41-28
Matt Zenitz: Oklahoma 38-27