Georgia-Ole Miss, Alabama-LSU headline Week 11 games with greatest College Football Playoff implications

Were those not the results you expected Tuesday night? I’m talking about the initial College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings, where many were shocked to see Indiana, BYU and SMU badly mis-ranked. 

I can’t say I was surprised. Just disappointed. 

But since the CFP committee has spoken and given us one of six data points to consider between now and the rest of the season, we have a much clearer picture of where teams stand in regards to who could be in and who might get left out. 

We know that every game from here on out has playoff stakes. Obviously, pretty much every team needs to keep winning. But what game the Week 11 games with the greatest potential reverberations up and down the Top 25 rankings?

Here are my Week 11 games with the biggest 2024 College Football Playoff implications:

No. 4 Miami at Georgia Tech

The Hurricanes are 9-0 and continue to navigate ACC land mines each week. Now Can they avoid a letdown in Atlanta against a Yellow Jackets team likely without starting quarterback Haynes King? The Bees stung Mario Cristobal last season for his galactic failure to take a knee at the end of the game, so Miami will be seeking a bit of retribution. 

The Canes have bye week after Saturday, so if they get past Ga. Tech, they’ll be 10-0 and potentially a Top 3 team when they take the field again in two weeks. 

No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss

The Rebels’ season is on the line Saturday against Georgia, as Lane Kiffin’s team has a shaky resume as constituted — so it must win out to make the playoffs. A victory over the Bulldogs would give the Rebels a tie-breaker advantage for a potential spot in the SEC Championship, too. 

Georgia can afford a loss with its win at No. 5 Texas and a blowout over No. 23 Clemson. The Dawgs also have No. 7 Tennessee on deck next weekend. But a victory at Ole Miss would make UGA (which currently has around an 84% chance) a complete lock to make the field.

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana 

By slotting the Hoosiers at No. 8 — behind Miami, Texas, Penn State and Tennessee — the committee essentially told us, “We think Indiana is good but not that good.” Curt Cignetti’s team is probably safely in the field at 11-1 with a loss at Ohio State. But that’s not a guarantee. 

It would really behoove the Hoosiers to continue smashing teams, starting with Michigan this weekend. Texas has a 19-point win over the Wolverines earlier this season, so Indiana needs to best that to boost a resume that includes 103rd strength of schedule. 

No. 20 Colorado at Texas Tech

While BYU and Iowa State remain the favorites to win the Big 12, Colorado now at least has a potential path to Dallas after all the intra-conference carnage last weekend. But the Buffs have three straight toss-up games to end the season, starting this weekend at Texas Tech. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter should have a field day against a terrible Red Raiders’ secondary, but can the Buffs’ improved defense take care of business against Tahj Brooks, Behren Morton and a good TTU offense?

Deion Sanders’ team has around a 36% chance to make the Big 12 title, and an 11.6% chance to win the league — but they have to win out and get some help (an Iowa State loss). Oh, and Texas Tech can’t totally be counted out just yet, either! The Red Raiders might be the lone P4 team NOT in the initial Top 25 CFP Rankings could could conceivably make the 12-team with a Cinderella run over the last month. At 6-3 (4-2 in Big 12), Texas Tech needs to win out and have Kansas State and Iowa State lose, where it would hold the tie-breaker over the Cyclones. We’re talking around 3% odds all that happens. But in the words of Lloyd Christmas, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”

South Carolina at Vanderbilt 

How does a matchup between two unranked SEC teams impact the CFP Rankings? Let me explain. With apologies to Louisville, South Carolina might be the best 3-loss team in the country. If the Cocks beat a 6-3 Vandy team in Nashville, it’ll be ranked next week — which would mean another “quality win” for either winner of Alabama-LSU and maybe Ole Miss if the Rebels beat Georgia. 

For the ‘Dores, if they move to 7-3 they’ll probably be in the Top 25, which would give Texas another ranked win, and make Alabama’s loss look not as bad. After a bye week, Vandy finishes the season at LSU and vs. Tennessee — two other teams vying for playoff spots. 

Remember: The back-half of these rankings have one sole impact — to justify how teams are slotted at the top. 

No. 11 Alabama at No. 15 LSU

The showdown in Death Valley on Saturday night is a playoff elimination game — full-stop. Both teams have one quality win, two losses and SEC-profile that’s boosting their current rankings. 

The Crimson Tide are actually favored on the road, a win by Jalen Milroe & Co., would continue to spell bad news for the second-tier contenders in the ACC (SMU, Pitt) and Big 12 (Iowa State, Kansas State and Colorado) — all of whom are already ranked behind Alabama.

Oklahoma at No. 24 Missouri 

Why is this game on here when the Sooners are 5-4 and Missouri is lucky to be ranked at all? Because the lone reason the 6-2 Tigers — which are HOME UNDERDOGS to OU this weekend — are justifiably ranked at all is that is boosts Alabama’s and Texas A&M’s resumes with another “ranked win.” Both teams are very much rooting for Mizzou to stay in the Top 25 for optics’ sake. 

No. 9 BYU at Utah 

The Cougs got hosed in the initial CFP Rankings. For all the talk about Indiana, BYU has twice as many ranked wins (at SMU, Kansas State) as four of the teams (Indiana, Tennessee, Penn State and Texas) ahead of them have combined (Vols’ victory over Alabama). 

So Kalani Sitake’s team needs to win out at least until the Big 12 title game to have a chance at making the 12-team field — which means winning a second-straight Holy War for the first time since 2006-07.