Greg McElroy believes Oregon, Penn State are College Football Playoff locks

The expanded College Football Playoff is here and, with that, a new era of college football started in 2024. That means more teams in the Playoff race than before and questions about how the selection committee is going to approach ranking teams.

For college football analyst Greg McElroy, there are already a couple of teams that are already locks to make the College Football Playoff, Oregon and Penn State.

“There are a couple locks right now in college football,” Greg McElroy said. “There are two that I think are without question are going to the Playoff, just two, and there’s a few that I think are close, but there’s just two that I think are in just based on historical precedent.”

The Oregon Ducks are currently the top-ranked team in the country, according to the current AP Poll. With a massive win over Ohio State already and a manageable schedule, McElroy sees the Ducks as a lock for the Playoff.

“Number one, the Oregon Ducks. Right now, to make the Playoff, according to Vegas, you gotta lay $6,000 to make $100. So, I would say that Vegas believes that they’re a lock as well. They are a healthy double-digit favorite in every single game. They’re at Michigan. They have Maryland at their place. They’re at Wisconsin. Then, they have Washington coming to them,” McElroy said.

“They have a 96 percent chance to have two or fewer losses, which means, let’s be real, if they get one loss, they’re still going to the Big Ten title game. If they get two they might even still get there. It’s certainly a possibility… so barring multiple shocking upsets they’re going to be at worst the five seed with how things have kind of lined up for Oregon. So, I think Oregon at this point is a lock. Duck fans punch your tickets.”

From there, McElroy transitioned to talking about Penn State. The third-ranked team in the country, the Nittany Lions still have a marquee matchup with Ohio State. However, win or lose that game, McElroy thinks that Penn State is going to be in the Playoff.

“You’re gonna say this is a little crazy. You’re also going to say this is a little dangerous. That’s Penn State. Penn State right now is currently -600 to make the field. That’s according to ESPN Bet…They’re currently a slight dog this weekend against the Ohio State Buckeyes. That’s at home. Well, they win this weekend, they are at worst going to be the five seed or the six seed. At worst. That’s, of course, if they win. They’re also a super healthy favorite against Washington, against Maryland, and at Purdue. They’re also a double-digit favorite or thereabouts when looking ahead to their road trip against Minnesota,” McElroy said.

“Here’s the thing, James Franklin doesn’t really lose to teams not named Ohio State and Michigan. So, do you think, all of a sudden, he’s gonna revert to the mean? They’re gonna lose against Maryland at home, Washington at home, or at Purdue and at Minnesota? I don’t know. I think he could lose this weekend but it’s highly unlikely he loses another of the aforementioned games. So, I think you’re looking at a team that is 10-2 at worst and I think at that point they can punch their ticket.”

Both coming out of the Big Ten, Oregon and Penn State won’t play in the regular season. However, there is still a chance that they meet in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Ducks already have the inside track on that game while the Nittany Lions likely need to beat Ohio State this weekend to get there.