Greg McElroy breaks down path to lock in College Football Playoff spot for teams above cut line

The College Football Playoff is rapidly approaching and, in a year where the Playoff is expanding to 12 teams, the field is going to have a new look and there are more teams that can make it than ever before.

With plenty of teams still in the race, analyst Greg McElroy sees a handful of teams pulling away from the field. So, on Always College Football, McElroy broke down the path for several teams above the cut line to lock in their spot in the Playoff.

“They’re not locks just yet but they’re a game or two from becoming a lock and let’s start with the Georgia Bulldogs,” Greg McElroy said. “They are currently -1200, according to ESPN BET, to get into the field. They’re a healthy favorite against Georgia Tech and Florida. They’re about a seven-point favorite at home against Tennessee. This is a line that surprised me, right now, they’re a very narrow favorite against Ole Miss. That game is in Oxford, Mississippi against what may be a desperate Ole Miss team. So, that is a very narrow margin to have two games inside of a touchdown is pretty intriguing.”

While Georgia has some excellent wins against teams like Clemson and Texas, the Bulldogs do have a loss and a challenging upcoming schedule. That keeps the Bulldogs from already being a lock but they’re clearly getting closer.

“Their spot, right now, is far from a guarantee. Their spot in a Playoff is far from a guarantee, but they do hold the head-to-head against Clemson and they currently hold the head-to-head against the Texas Longhorns. So, they’re sitting pretty right now but still some work to be done. I think a win against Tennessee would all but assure their spot in the College Football Playoff.”

From there, Greg McElroy turned his attention to Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a loss to an excellent Oregon team but, as McElroy dove into, a win over Penn State would all but clinch a spot in the Playoff. Even with a loss, the CFP is on the table.

“Currently, -900 to make the Playoff. They’re a slight favorite on the road at Penn State this weekend. It’s a pivotal game in the Big Ten, but it’s also critically important when it comes to seeding purposes for the CFP because if Penn State wins that would give Ohio State their second loss and at that point, they become far from a lock to get into the Playoff,” McElroy said.

“But, if they go on the road and beat Penn State, then Ohio State is sitting there with one loss and they would own the head-to-head against the Nittany Lions. Ohio State, then, has to take on Indiana where they’re about a 10 to 14-point favorite depending on where you look. Massive favorite against Purdue. Massive favorite at Northwestern. Right now, a shocking 14+ point favorite at home against Michigan. They win this week and I think they go from sitting pretty to lock, if they can get it done here on the road, barring a complete meltdown against some of the teams they might face down the stretch.”

The third team that McElroy grouped here was Miami. The Hurricanes are unbeaten this season but their resume isn’t as strong as some other teams. Still, they’re in a good spot.

“They are currently -600. They’re a three-touchdown favorite against Duke,” McElroy said. “They’re a four-touchdown favorite against Wake Forest. They’re a double-digit favorite on the road against Georgia Tech and they’re a 17-point favorite, thereabouts, against Syracuse on the road at the end of the year. Even at 11-1 with one gigantic upset, they’re still going to be in the ACC title game. If they’re in the ACC title game at 11-1, if they lose, at 11-2 are they still in a pretty good position to get in? I think they probably are. Now, their record and their resume and all this other stuff is not great, but they’re still in a really good spot. So, I think Miami, they’re along Georgia and Ohio State as teams sitting pretty.”

Previously, McElroy had listed Oregon, Penn State, and Texas as being virtual locks to make the College Football this season. That makes six teams who have spots and all of a sudden it’s a crowded field for plenty of teams competing for a spot.

“So, I’ve listed off six teams right now that I think are, teams one through six, that I think are in a really good position to lock down Playoff spots here in the next couple of weeks. So, if you’re sitting there thinking, ‘I haven’t heard my team yet,’ I know. It should feel uncomfortable for you because 12 feels like a lot and then you start getting down to it and you’re like, ‘Hang on a second, there’s not enough spots to go around for teams that are indecipherable.’ Because I’ve got six teams that I just listed that I think are sitting pretty near locks or locks,” McElroy said.

“And yet I may not have listed a team that only has one loss on the season or, in some cases, they’re undefeated. Gonna be wild. I’m telling you, this Playoff gets small in a hurry.”

The first College Football Playoff rankings are going to come out on Tuesday, November 5th. Once those come out, the status of all these teams in the race will become more clear.