Greg McElroy considers whether SEC could miss CFP after slow start

After the SEC’s rough start to non-conference play, ESPN’s Greg McElroy is asking: is it really possible for the conference to miss out on the College Football Playoff?

On his show, Always College Football, this week, he wondered if the poor performances in marquee out-of-conference games could ultimately cost the SEC a playoff spot. “What would have to continue to go wrong for there to be no SEC team in the Playoff?” he asked, and then answered himself.

First, he explained that even if the league is lesser in 2023 compared to the last decade-plus, CFB committee members may still give the SEC the benefit of the doubt.

“Well, it’s an interesting thought, because I really wish that the College Football Playoff committee could go into the meeting room starting on Halloween without any preconceived notions,” McElroy said. “I wish they could really truly go in and evaluate every league, every team throughout that seven or eight game sample size, without anything that happened in 2022, ’21, ’20, what have you. But they’re human.”

Any human who’s watched a team like Georgia the last couple years knows the type of respect they command. Even with a weaker campaign than the last couple, Greg McElroy still believes the Bulldogs have an inside track at one of the four playoff spots.

“I think if any of us were in the College Football Playoff committee meeting room, too, we’d probably look at a Georgia that is undefeated at that time, 7-0 with seven wins against very average competition, at least up to that point,” McElroy continued, “and we’re probably still going to sit there and say, ‘yeah, you know what, Georgia, based on the eye test, the fact that they’ve won consecutive national championships, they’re a top team in the country, right.’ Even though their resume up to that point for this year might not necessarily reflect that.”

That principle applies to the whole SEC, too, not just Georgia, per McElroy.

“So I think the SEC has built up a ton of goodwill over the last 15 seasons,” he continued. “Dating back to 2006, the run that they’ve been on with all the different champions — Georgia, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, all those different teams that have won championships, teams that have played well in the playoffs, teams that have fared well in big games. I think they’re naturally going to be given the benefit of the doubt.”

Circling back to McElroy’s original question of whether the SEC could miss the playoff — he thinks not, unless pandemonium ensues in conference play and the league cannibalizes itself.

“The only way the SEC doesn’t get a team in is if the SEC completely implodes, meaning the SEC has to have a two-loss champion and Georgia has to lose a game in the regular season. That’s the only way I can see it happening,” McElroy said.

“Even at that point, the SEC would probably still be in a pretty good position to potentially get in even though a lot of their teams, if that scenario plays out, would clearly be flawed. So I don’t think there’s a scenario where that happens. It would basically be up to the SEC to play their way out of the College Football Playoff.”

Sure, the early season losses in these non-conference matchups are concerning. But by no means are they a sign that the SEC won’t have its top dogs in the mix come January, according to Greg McElroy.