Greg McElroy picks Indiana at Ohio State, other top Week 13 games

The penultimate weekend of the regular season doesn’t normally have a ton of marquee matchups, as many teams have big rivalry games the following week and prefer to lighten the schedule ahead of that key contest. This year is a little different, and ESPN’s Greg McElroy breaks down the slate.

Indiana‘s stunning success has set up a monster showdown with Ohio State, one that will come with significant playoff implications.

But there are also a handful of other contests that will be very important, potentially carrying conference championship game implications. McElroy has broken down the slate for some of the top games from a betting standpoint to tell you what he likes.

Let’s get into his picks for the week below.

Indiana at Ohio State (-13.5)

In the marquee game of the week, Indiana is looking to prove it belongs in the College Football Playoff field. It might not necessarily take a win, but it will take a competent, competitive effort. McElroy believes you’ll get that this weekend.

Greg McElroy: “I’m taking Ohio State. I would lay the points, but I don’t think this is going to be a run-out-of-the-gym scenario. Ohio State doesn’t feel like a team that’s going to just rev their engine and dust the opposition and leave them behind by 30 points. I don’t see that version of Ohio State, or at least I haven’t seen that version of Ohio State.”

Colorado (-3) vs. Kansas

Colorado is firmly in the running for the Big 12 title, which would presumably — barring something truly strange happening down the stretch — carry with it a College Football Playoff berth. But Kansas has been on a roll lately and could certainly make things interesting on Saturday.

Greg McElroy: “I’ll take Colorado in the game. I think they’re playing better right now. And last week, albeit in victory, Kansas left a little to be desired with their own offensive performance. So I think Colorado, in a game that could become a track meet, has an advantage against the Jayhawks.”

Army at Notre Dame (-14.5)

Notre Dame was left for dead by many following an early season loss to Northern Illinois. All the Fighting Irish have done since is win. But they have to. Another loss almost certainly knocks them out of the playoff picture. Army, on the other hand, is scrapping to climb the rankings to potentially steal an automatic berth for a Group of Five champion from Boise State. High stakes game.

Greg McElroy: “I think Notre Dame rolls in this game. I don’t expect it to be super competitive. I think they’ll run away at the end. And I just, unless this game goes completely perfect to script for the Army Black Knights, I don’t see how they keep this thing close.”

Alabama (-13.5) at Oklahoma

As of now, Alabama is in the College Football Playoff field. But it can’t afford any slip-ups. Oklahoma has been all over the place this season, with quarterback concerns among the biggest issues. This one looks fairly straightforward on paper to McElroy, the former Alabama quarterback.

Greg McElroy: “I’m taking ‘Bama, I think they win the game comfortably. I think they’ll play smart. And their continued ascension is noticeable. They are better on defense, they’re better on offense, the offensive line is gelling. There’s a lot to like about the way the team has played the last few weeks.”

Wake Forest at Miami (-24.5)

Miami certainly can’t afford another loss if it hopes to remain on the right side of the College Football Playoff bubble. The schedule is too weak to gamble with trying to get in with two losses. Wake Forest should not represent a significant threat. Vegas sure doesn’t think so, anyway.

Greg McElroy: “I’ll take Miami big here. I don’t think Wake can stop them. I think Wake might be able to move the ball, create some confusion with the slow mesh stuff, but I don’t think they’re going to be able to stop them.”

SMU (-9.5) at Virginia

SMU has had a terrific year, with its lone loss at this point to a quality BYU squad. An ACC title game berth is right around the corner, and one more win would lock it up for the Mustangs. With that in mind, there’s little reason to think SMU won’t be ready to roll on Saturday.

Greg McElroy: “I will take SMU, but I will take Virginia and the points in this game. I’m expecting a bounce-back performance from Virginia. It’s a big opportunity. SMU has been playing great. But I think Virginia’s going to hang in there in this game.”

Penn State (-12) at Minnesota

Penn State remains alive in the Big Ten title race, but it needs a certain set of circumstances to unfold to get in. All the Nittany Lions can control is how they play. Of the two remaining games, Minnesota (on the road) certainly seems the more difficult. Still, Penn State is favored by a reasonably large margin.

Greg McElroy: “I’ll take Penn State here and lay the points. I’m not super impressed with Minnesota and I do think Penn State’s defense is going to make it very difficult on the Gophers.”

Kentucky at Texas (-20.5)

The danger here is the look-ahead potential for Texas, with a massive rivalry game showdown with Texas A&M that carries major SEC title game implications coming up next. Kentucky is coming off an easy win over Murray State and might have found a little renewed confidence. Still, Texas enters as a huge favorite.

Greg McElroy: “I don’t think Kentucky’s going to be able to manufacture hardly any points in this game. I think Kentucky will try to slow the game down, make it a physical bloodbath. There’s only so much you can do. I think Texas wins this game comfortably. I would not lay the points, but I don’t think there’s ever going to be a scenario where Texas is going to feel threatened in this ballgame.”

Texas A&M (-2.5) at Auburn

In one of the tightest lines McElroy picked against this weekend, Texas A&M will travel to Auburn. The Aggies have everything to play for, hoping to power their way up into the playoff positions. You can’t get there without taking care of this weekend’s game. So what does McElroy see?

Greg McElroy: “Give me Auburn. I think Auburn’s going to somehow find a way to get this game. A&M, I’m not saying they’re looking ahead, I’m just saying it would be human nature if they were. Looking at this game I think it’s a terrible spot for A&M. I think this has a chance to be a game that’s circled on Senior Day for Auburn. I think you’re going to get Auburn’s best punch, and I don’t think Auburn’s record is reflective of how they’re playing at the moment. I think they play well this weekend, I think they knock off the Aggies in Jordan-Hare.”