Greg McElroy predicts next football program to win first national championship

In the offseason one of the more interesting ways to interact with fans is by hosting online Q&As, giving them a chance to directly interact with the sport’s top analysts. Former Alabama quarterback and ESPN personality Greg McElroy recently did so and fielded a fascinating question about the national championship.

Which team is most likely to win its first national championship next?

“I think there’s layers to this question,” McElroy said. “Now are we talking the first-time champion that has never won a national championship? Or are we talking a first-time College Football Playoff national champion? I’ll go with the first one, and I’ll answer both questions.”

The distinction between the two is a matter of numbers. Many more programs have won a national championship than have won a championship during the College Football Playoff era, which dates back only to 2014.

In theory it’d be a bigger feat for a team to win its first-ever national title, regardless of era.

“For the first one I’m going to go with the Oregon Ducks,” McElroy said, revealing his pick. “Now this might actually be the year that they do it. Likely a top-5 team in the preseason, so they’ll be in great shape.”

If there’s a question, it’s about the move to the Big Ten Conference for the 2024 season.

“The Big Ten has such a heavy emphasis, though, on the line of scrimmage, I’m just really interested to see their athleticism coupled with how good they are along the line of scrimmage,” McElroy said. “Because I do think they’re much better in the trenches than people realize. I’m really really fascinated to see how Oregon handles what should be, I think, an upgrade in challenge with the teams they’re going to play week in and week out there in the Big Ten.

“So I’ll go with Oregon. They’ve never won a national championship, but I think of all the teams that haven’t won one they’re in the best shape to do so, hopefully in the near future under Dan Lanning.”

So what about the second feat, winning one in the College Football Playoff era for the first time? That opens up more teams for inclusion.

Like the second of McElroy’s picks.

“Now the answer to the second question, that’s a team that has not won a national championship in the College Football Playoff era,” McElroy explained. “So the list is pretty short amongst teams that have won one, that big gold trophy. Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Georgia and Michigan, that’s it. Those are the only teams that have won a national championship in the CFP era.

“So for that one I’m going to go with the Texas Longhorns. Now (Steve Sarkisian) has it cooking. You could make a case that they had the most complete team in the sport last year. Now, while it will be a significant step up in competition week to week in the SEC, I think Texas’ resources, understanding of NIL, an innovative coach that has been really excellent in the portal and the recruiting trail, it just feels like for Texas it’s only a matter of time before they win a national championship yet again.”

Who will win one first? That remains to be seen. But McElroy likes Oregon and Texas as the next due up to win a national championship among the newcomers.