Greg McElroy predicts surprise contenders in 2024 CFP conversation

With an expanded College Football Playoff, more teams than ever are going to have a shot at the national title. Still, 12 spots will keep some on the outside looking in depending on how things unfold this fall and in the future.

Greg McElroy took a look at some of potentially surprising playoff teams who could force their way in in this upcoming season on ‘Always College Football’ on Tuesday. He began by explaining what he was looking for in his choices before sharing his four selections.

“I’ll give you a couple, alright? A few. I always kind of like to look at returning production and teams that were close but not quite there just yet and had some ups and downs,” McElroy said. “If you can find consistency? Then you have a chance in every game. But these teams were drastic. They had great performances, they had awful performances.”

To start, McElroy’s first choice was Virginia Tech. The Hokies are set to bring back more production from last year’s team than anyone else in the country. That stat paired with a fairly open race in the ACC might come together for one of their best seasons in some time and certainly their best under Brent Pry.

“I’m going to start with Virginia Tech. They’re returning, according to ESPN, 86% of their production from a year ago. They were at 7-6. They also return 95% of their offensive production on the offensive side and scored at least 30 points seven times last year,” McElroy said. “If their offense is as good as I think they can be? Then they have a real chance to make some noise in a conference that feels, at times, a little bit gettable.”

“When you think about this and you think about the ACC? We know the pecking order. We know it’s going to be some order of Clemson, Miami, and Florida State however you stack them up. I think they’ll all be really, really good. I think two of the three? Wouldn’t be shocked at all if they were within striking distance of the playoff. But, I look at the ACC and, beyond those three, Virginia Tech becomes extremely dangerous,” said McElroy. “NC State will be good, North Carolina, I still think, will be good. Virginia will be improved, I think Syracuse will be improved. I think there’ll be a bunch of teams in the league, like Georgia Tech, that are very, very dangerous. I think Virginia Tech is absolutely one of those teams.”

McElroy’s second selection came out of the SEC in Texas A&M. The Aggies will enter year one of Mike Elko’s tenure after a somewhat disappointing six-year stretch, specifically so in the past two. Still, even for what all that they lost in the transfer portal, McElroy still sees plenty for Elko to work with in hopes of better competing for the playoff down in College Station.

“We’ll go next to Texas A&M. Now, Texas A&M is actually 18th in returning production in 2024, which is surprising too. When I’m thinking about when Jimbo Fisher was fired and they had some turnover? Man, it felt like they lost a lot of guys in the portal, didn’t it?” McElroy asked. “It felt like they had so many guys jump into the portal – Walter Nolen, a few others, Evan Stewart. I mean a bunch of guys that decided to jump in the portal. It’s like, well, man, shoot, who’s going to be on the field for the Aggies? Well, yeah, they lost 20 transfers in the portal but a lot of those guys were backups.”

“They did have some impact players that decided to go. But they still bring back some guys that are legit difference makers. I also think too that the guys that they added in the portal might be pretty good,” McElroy said. “Now, think about what Mike Elko did in his first year at Duke? And the roster that he’s inheriting at Texas A&M is far more talented than the roster he inherited at Duke. You think combination of a really, really strong schedule last year? They were also 0-4 in one-score finishes. Meaning you look at the 7-6 record? They were probably even a little bit better when you take into account some of the metrics that you would use when considering a jump up the following year. So I think Texas A&M has a chance to be very dangerous this year.”

The third team for McElroy was his first of two picks out of the Big 12. He went with Iowa State considering what they’re bringing back and adding to a team that went 7-6 last fall. Combine that with a new void in their conference and there could be a spot for them to make a move toward the top.

“Iowa State would be another one that I think has a chance to be really good,” McElroy opined. “Think about the Big 12 in general. The other team that I’m going to mention is also a Big 12 team. The big, bad Oklahoma Sooners, Texas Longhorns? They’re not there anymore. So, now, how is it all going to stack up? I think Iowa State is in a really good position.”

“They really only have two offensive starters to replace on a team that rebounded pretty well from 2022. 2022 was awful. They had to replace a couple pieces on defense but they’re actually number two in returning production in 2024. Matt Campbell? Look, he’s not going to be a guy that does a lot in the portal. That’s just not really who he is. But he did go to Louisiana-Monroe and get a legit difference maker off the edge defensively in Kenard Snyder,” noted McElroy. “This is the most experienced team in the country in 2024 and one that could definitely be a factor in the Big 12 knowing that we’re not sure exactly how this new-look Big 12 is exactly going to shake itself out.”

Finally, McElroy’s last choice was one that has been quite successful for some time now but will enter this season in a new conference. That pick was Utah based on the return of their starting quarterback, their overall roster, and their notoriety under Kyle Whittingham. That might be enough to make the Utes a new contender in the Big 12 and possibly give them a chance at a playoff appearance.

“The other one that I would take into account are the Utah Utes. They’re 16th in returning production this year. You think too about bringing back Cam Rising. Missed all of ’23. He is a guy that has thrown for 3,000 yards in 2022,” McElroy said. “Ton of experience on both lines, really good linebacker corps, plus a couple of difference-making transfers in the backend in Alaka’i Gilman and Georgia Tech’s Kenan Johnson to replace some outgoing starters in the secondary.”

“They could be loaded in their first year there in the Big 12. People thought they were a fringe playoff team last year but that was because they had so much faith in Cam Rising and the program that Kyle Whittingham has built,” said McElroy. “Now they move into the Big 12 and I think there might even be a little bit more upward mobility in the Big 12 than there was in the Pac-12 last year.”

The College Football Playoff is as available as its ever been but will take plenty of work to earn a berth in its dozen slots. That’s why this quartet is worth watching to McElroy as they, in his opinion, have a chance to crash in and take one for themselves come kickoff.