Heather Dinich claims future of AP poll, College Football Playoff rankings is headed for 'a divorce'

These days, the AP poll is really only a placeholder until the College Football Playoff rankings are released in November. Those then take priority as they are what determines which 12 teams will get a chance to compete for a national title.

The first CFP rankings of 2024 will be announced on Nov. 5, and ESPN analyst Heather Dinich expects them to be different in terms of what they value. While the AP poll is more reactive to wins and losses on a week-to-week basis, the Playoff committee looks at things like strength of schedule and head-to-head results.

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“This is not a marriage, this is a divorce from the AP poll,” Dinich said on the College GameDay Podcast. “This relationship is going to be over on Nov. 5 when the first ranking comes out. The selection committee does not do it this old school way where you win, you move up. You lose, you move down. Head-to-head results matter in the committee meeting room.”

Dinich used the example of Alabama, which fell from No. 1 to No. 7 in the AP poll after suffering an upset loss to Vanderbilt this past week. Georgia, which the Crimson Tide beat in Week 5, rose to No. 5.

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She believes that doesn’t make much sense considering the win for Alabama against the Bulldogs and that the College Football Playoff committee would likely have kept the Crimson Tide in front in its rankings.

“Alabama as we sit here right this minute has the best win in the country against Georgia,” she said. “…The AP poll did not honor that obviously. Alabama sank like a rock behind Georgia and then you have Oregon and Penn State skyrocket. Why? What did they do this week to jump up ahead of Georgia?

“So if you keep Penn State and Oregon behind Georgia, which I think the selection committee would do at this point, then it’s a safety net for Alabama in that committee meeting room because I think they would honor that head-to-head.”

That certainly has to make Alabama fans feel good about their chances in the initial College Football Playoff rankings despite the disappointing loss last week. It’s also some interesting insight into the thought process of the committee, and we’ll likely have many more cases like it as conference play continues.

For example, Ohio State and Oregon play this weekend with both in the Playoff discussion through the first half of the season. Whichever team wins that game would likely remain above the other even if it were to go on to lose another game later in the year.

Of course, a lot more can happen to complicate things, but it at least gives an idea how decision will be made for the first 12-team Playoff this season.