College Football Playoff insider forecasts which team will top the first ranking of the season

With the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2022 set to be released Tuesday, ESPN’s Heather Dinich has a few ideas about who will come in at No. 1.

Dinich joined the Paul Finebaum Show on Monday from Grapevine, Texas, where she was on the scene as the CFP committee carefully deliberated the rankings. There she made the case that Tennessee has the best resume of any team thanks to its win against Alabama, but added that whether it comes in ahead of Georgia and Ohio State will depend on what the committee values most.

“I think this ranking is really going to test the selection committee in terms of what they value more, whether it’s eye test or resume,” Dinich said. “Because if we’re being honest here, there’s really only one team in the country that’s got the resume and it’s Tennessee. They’re No. 1 in the country in strength of record, and that measures what the average top 25 team, the chances that they would have to achieve the same 8-0 record against the Vols’ schedule. It’s 8%. That’s the odds that a regular top 25 team (could match Tennessee).

“They’ve got the best win in the country against Alabama, but it wasn’t until Kentucky that we saw the defense become the story for the Vols. So, the committee, they’re going to be talking a lot about who’s No. 1, where you can raise the question is it Tennessee, Georgia, Ohio State? Who’s No. 4? Is Michigan? Clemson? Does TCU have a shot? A lot to talk about for them.”

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After laying out the case for the Volunteers, Dinich also listed the reasons why the Bulldogs or Buckeyes could claim the No. 1 spot. Although both teams have several convincing wins this season, their strength of schedule is where they fall short when it comes to Tennessee. However, history could be on their side.

The Volunteers have never made the College Football Playoff, while Georgia and Ohio State have a combined six appearances and the Bulldogs won the title last season.

“I think Georgia has a great chance too because nobody’s playing better defense than Georgia,” Dinich said. “They’re allowing just 10-and-a-half points per game right now. Michigan is right behind them, but you also have to ask of question of: Does the ‘wow’ factor matter with convincing wins? That’s where Ohio State has the edge. Nobody is beating teams more soundly right now than the Buckeyes. But, against who? That’s a question that they ask. ‘Well, who did you beat?’ Quite frankly, it’s not very impressive for Ohio State or Michigan. Their best wins, Ohio State, are against Notre Dame and 6-2 Penn State on Saturday.”

Ultimately, the College Football Playoff rankings will see plenty of change throughout the season, and the final version will likely look much different from the first. That will be true especially after this week, as Tennessee and Georgia are set to play each other on Saturday. Heather Dinich believes whoever wins that game will undoubtedly top the next College Football Playoff rankings.

But for now, it could be any one of Tennessee, Georgia or Ohio State.

“If Tennessee beats Georgia, and they beat Alabama and Georgia, how are they not No. 1?” Dinich asked. “If Georgia beats Tennessee, I think they do, too. But as we sit here right now, the selection committee will remind you it’s what they see to date. If you look at Georgia’s schedule beyond Oregon, their opponents are 22-26 and the best win is against South Carolina. So, how much does the committee value that win against Oregon?”