How Mario Cristobal, Billy Napier’s situations differ ahead of Week 1 matchup

Miami visiting The Swap to take on Florida in Week 1 is one of the most anticipated matchups to start the college football season. A game featuring two head coaches in the same state entering their third season at the helm for their respective programs.

For the past two seasons Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier both have disappointing 3-5 records in conference play. But despite having similar resumes in recent history, CaneSport‘s Gary Ferman recently told me that Cristobal and Napier do not have a lot in common regarding their futures with their teams.

“People might think I’m biased because we do cover Miami, but I don’t really see an enormous amount of comparison at all between the situation Billy Napier’s in at Florida and the situation that Mario Cristobal is in at Miami,” Ferman said at the On3 Roundtable. “Napier came into a little bit of a different deal at Florida and they’re very impatient up there and the tea leaves are not very good. They have a very tough schedule this year, their probability of having a winning season at Gainesville this year is not very high in my opinion.”

Florida’s schedule is regarded as one of, if not the, toughest schedule in the nation this upcoming season. Paired with an 11–14 record at the helm and the high expectations of the program, many believe that Napier’s seat is already quite hot ahead of the upcoming season.

Cristobal has led the Hurricanes to a 12–13 record in the past two seasons at a program desperate to return to their glory days of the early 2000s. But Ferman believes that he has a long leash and more time to build up the Miami program compared to Napier.

“Miami on the flip side knew from day one when they hired Mario Cristobal what a bad place that the program was in and it was way worse than anybody really imagined. Including ourselves to be honest with you who cover it every day,” Ferman admitted. “It was worse than I thought Kaiden and I think that anybody connected here in Miami, the power structure of the university is not harboring any illusions of Mario Cristobal being on any kind of hot seat this year. He signed the 10 year contract for a reason. It was because there was an understanding of how big this job was.”

At Cristobal’s previous stop at Oregon, he led the Ducks to two double-digit win seasons and two conference titles. Heights that some believe the Hurricanes are primed for as early as this season thanks to a revamped roster.

“I’m expecting Miami to be massively better this year, I’m expecting the forward progress to be great. Does that mean eight wins, nine wins, 10 wins, 11 wins, maybe even 12 wins?” Ferman asked. “I mean we don’t know that yet, it’s a whole new deal here. Like I said, you have 41 new players, but I think that you are going to see forward progress for sure.”

Napier leads all head coaches as the most likely to be the first fired at +400, with Cristobal trailing just two spots behind him at No. 3 with +600 odds. A bet that Ferman suggests avoiding in regards to Cristobal ahead of a Week 1 matchup where the stakes are undoubtedly high for both head coaches

“I don’t think that there’s any scenario whatsoever that Mario Cristobal’s job is in jeopardy and I think people that are suggesting that around college football just don’t understand,” Ferman said. “Including the oddsmakers out in Vegas, which suggest that he is the third highest coach in the country with the probability of being fired this year and there’s just no accuracy to that.”

“Tell everybody to save their money Kaiden, do not run to the sportsbook and take that +600 on Mario Cristobal. I don’t see it happening.”