How will realignment and an expanded CFP affect college football viewership?

From the expansion of power conferences and the College Football Playoff to the virtual vanishing of one power league altogether, you’re not the only one who may feel a little disoriented with the radically new terrain of the college football world.

But fresh off the most-watched season across all networks, it’s an open question how realignment and CFP expansion will affect viewership?

Last season served as a perfect storm to maximize eyeballs.

The phenomenon of Coach Prime was ratings gold during the first half of the season. The sign-stealing Michigan scandal and incessant speculation surrounding Jim Harbaugh created a level of intrigue, in his lingo, unknown to mankind. And the now virtually defunct Pac-12 was appointment viewing, with stars galore along the West Coast.

“College Football is the No. 2 sport in our country, but I expect ratings to be slightly down this season heading into the CFP,” John Kosner, who led digital media at ESPN from 2003-2017 and is president of media consulting firm Kosner Media, told On3.

His rationale? Pac-12 audiences could feel somewhat diminished even as the biggest West Coast brands compete in new leagues. The buzz around Deion Sanders’ Colorado team isn’t quite the same. And it’s hard to rival Michigan’s drama-rich journey to the national championship.

Michigan played in four of the eight games last season that averaged at least ten million viewers, more than any other team, according to Sports Media Watch.

Also, while there will be more games than ever on streaming platforms, including ESPN+ and Peacock, “that’s great for fan choice but likely will impact ratings for games in the same windows,” Kosner said.

Will expanded College Football Playoff enhance season?

The expanded 12-team CFP will undoubtedly affect regular-season viewership as well, but precisely how is subject to debate. 

It is possible that the addition of eight more teams in the college football tournament field will dilute some interest in the regular season, at least early on. That said, marque games like Ohio State-Michigan will always attract enormous interest — and could have first-round bye implications – even if it is not a quasi-playoff game, as it has been in the past.

More to that point, some 15-20 teams could still harbor hopes for a playoff berth in the regular season’s final weeks, stirring interest in more markets much like what occurs toward the end of the parity-laden NFL season.

This season, we’ll also see Fox Sports broadcasting Friday night games from the Big Ten, Big 12 and Mountain West. Fox will televise nine Friday night Big Ten games in particular, with highly ranked Oregon making two appearances. 

“That used to be sacrosanct,” Neal Pilson, who served two stints as CBS Sports president, told On3. “When we had college football [at CBS], you couldn’t play on Friday nights because it screwed the high schools.”

Times are indeed changing. And then there is this element, which is not insignificant: 

“On the plus side, the EA College Football game is back and that will certainly aid interest among younger fans,” Kosner said.