Hugh Freeze has only done less with more at Auburn

The text came from someone who works in college football just as Vanderbilt iced its 17-7 win at Auburn on Saturday.

If Hugh Freeze only gets you seven points, what’s the use?

This is the question Auburn’s administration must ask these next few weeks as Freeze’s record slips well below the one predecessor Bryan Harsin had when he was fired. Harsin went 9-12 in a little less than two seasons at Auburn. After losing to a Vanderbilt team having a magical season with a roster that isn’t as talented as Auburn’s, Freeze is now 9-13. But that isn’t the only question. Freeze is hoping Auburn’s leadership also asks this one: Will it get better when more talent arrives?

The difference between Harsin and Freeze is that Harsin wasn’t recruiting in a way that promised better days in the future. He was getting lapped by Alabama’s Nick Saban and Georgia’s Kirby Smart on the recruiting trail. The 9-12 record probably was going to get worse. Freeze, meanwhile, signed the nation’s No. 8 recruiting class in 2024 and currently has the No. 5 class for 2025. It’s a key difference, but is it a crucial one at this point?

The reason Auburn hired Freeze from Liberty is because of Freeze’s on-field and recruiting-trail track record at Ole Miss. He did more with less in games, and he also punched above his weight in recruiting. Freeze got fired for an off-field scandal — he was caught calling escorts on his school-issued phone — but Auburn was willing to let bygones be bygones if it got the guy who beat Alabama with Bo Wallace and Chad Kelly at quarterback. 

But Freeze hasn’t been that guy at Auburn. He has repeatedly lost games to less talented teams. Last year, the Tigers lost 31-10 at home to New Mexico State (and quarterback Diego Pavia, who also led the Aggies to a win against Freeze’s Liberty team in 2022). Then Freeze almost pulled one of his signature shockers, but the Tigers rushed only two and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe hit Isaiah Bond on fourth-and-goal from the 31 to win the Iron Bowl. Then came a blowout bowl loss to Maryland. This year got worse. The Tigers lost to the Cal team that is 2-4 since. Then Auburn lost at home to Arkansas and to an Oklahoma team that can’t block anyone else except Maine. A loss to Georgia was expected. The fourth-quarter collapse on the road against Missouri probably counts as an even matchup. But Saturday’s loss to Vandy — which also has beaten Alabama this season — was an utter failure from Auburn’s offense. Pavia, now playing for the Commodores, notched his third career win against Freeze.

Freeze declined to pay for a QB out of the portal this season and has blamed this season’s failures on the quarterbacks on his roster (most of whom Freeze acquired) and on the roster Harsin left him (most of which Freeze has flipped). A week after running for 326 yards against Kentucky, Auburn ran for 88 yards on 29 carries. Vanderbilt lined up often in a Bear front and dared Auburn to throw. Quarterback Payton Thorne, whose interceptions have been a source of frustration all year, didn’t turn the ball over. He completed 20 of 29 passes for 239 yards and a touchdown, but Auburn converted only two of 13 third downs. “Offensively, we’re not able to create explosive runs,” Freeze said. “It seems we really struggle to protect the passer and to throw and catch some. And we’re not playing very well on special teams. That’s a bad combination.”

Are Freeze and Auburn a bad combination? That’s what has to be decided with games against Louisiana-Monroe, Texas A&M and Alabama remaining. With the recruiting class Freeze has coming, even a little positive momentum would help. But the vultures will come for the class if Auburn keeps spiraling.

Freeze’s buyout if fired after this season is expensive at a little more than $20 million but not unmanageable because of its structure. Unlike a lot of coaching contracts that require a large lump sum within a month or two of the firing, Freeze’s is payable in even installments over the remaining four years of the deal.

If Auburn wants to pull the ripcord it will cost about $400,000 a month for the next four years. That’s essentially like a homeowner who really wants to move buying a new house without selling the old one. If the old mortgage payment is manageable, the homeowner makes two mortgage payments until a good enough deal comes along to unload the old place. In this case, the second payment would be a sunk cost, but losing consistently might be more expensive for Auburn than that monthly payment.

What Freeze needs to show these next few weeks is that he can coach the Tigers well enough on the field so that they’ll get the results they want when that talent infusion does arrive. Because right now, Auburn looks like a team that plays below its talent level. The job of Auburn’s coach is to accumulate the kind of talent to compete with Alabama and Georgia and then beat those teams on the field. Given the way Alabama and Georgia recruit — higher ranked classes than Auburn in 2024 and 2025 — Auburn probably isn’t going to be more talented than those teams. Freeze will still need to out-scheme them. This seems unlikely if he can’t scheme ways to win against less talented teams. 

Auburn gets one more game against such a team when ULM comes to Jordan-Stadium on Nov. 16. Then it’s two against more talented teams (Texas A&M and Alabama). That’s when Freeze will need to make his stand. He’s done less with more so far, but he needs to show he remembers how to do more with less. He needs to score more than seven measly points. Otherwise Auburn leaders will have to decide whether it’s worth paying that other mortgage.