If Mel Tucker is indeed fired, how good of a job is Michigan State, what candidates might the Spartans target?

Due process must play out, but Mel Tucker might have fumbled the bag with the most expensive phone call in sport’s history. Despite $85 million guaranteed at stake, Michigan State’s head coach allegedly sexually harassed Brenda Tracy, a sexual assault survivor whose entire life’s work since has been crusading against such actions with her Set the Expectation non-profit, in a 2022 phone conversation.

It’s a bombshell story and an all-time blunder by Tucker if the allegations are true.

The Spartans now have potential ‘cause’ to terminate Tucker and avoid paying out the ridiculous contract extension they handed him after the 2021 season. He could’ve lost every game he coached at MSU and they would’ve had to give him his money. 

Now, potentially, they don’t. 

Tucker has maintained his innocence and believes the phone sex was consensual. Again, he will receive due process, and while he was suspended without pay Sunday by the university, there will be no resolution on this standing at Michigan State until the Title IX hearing on Oct. 5th or 6th. 

But barring a turnabout, Mel Tucker won’t coach another game for the Spartans. Even if they don’t have enough ’cause’ to completely void the buyout, the optics here make it difficult to see Tucker combating the negative recruiting from this. 

So let’s spin this forward. Michigan State looks likely to join Northwestern as the second opening in the Big Ten in 2023. 

How attractive of a job is MSU? Who could the Spartans target? 

Back in 2007, Michigan State was a mess when Mark Dantonio took over for John L. Smith. Within three years, Dantonio had cleaned up the program, and he went on the best six-year run the school has ever had — winning 11+ games in five years including a pair of Big Ten Championships. 

The run isn’t happening again.

Dantonio, who is returning to the program in an advisory role due to Tucker’s suspension, couldn’t sustain such success and he eventually burned out, going 7-6 his last two seasons in East Lansing before retiring abruptly in March of 2020. 

Still, Michigan State is a good job. It might be an especially attractive opening in 2023 considering the rest of the field. West Virginia, Boston College, Indiana, etc. all pale in comparison. If Texas A&M opens, then that’s another conversation, but as it stands, Michigan State could be the — or one of — the best jobs available in the 2023 cycle.

Despite Dantonio’s success, Michigan State doesn’t have annual championship expectations. The Spartans want to go to bowl games annually (Dantonio went 12 times in 13 seasons), and perhaps compete for a conference title every 4-5 years. 

Michigan State will pay and be patient.

Those are two of the most attractive attributes of these jobs for potential coaches. Tucker was paid like a Top 10 coach without Top 10 expectations. Even if the Spartans recede more toward the Top 25 in terms of salary structure, we’re talking generational wealth here. 

Ryan Walters had never been a head coach and received a five-year contract worth over $20 million from Purdue. It cost Nebraska $75 million to land Matt Rhule. Luke Fickell can earn close to $60 million from Wisconsin. 

Financially, Michigan State is swimming in the same waters as Nebraska and Wisconsin. This is where is pays to be in the Big Ten or SEC. Schools have cash to burn.

My back-of-the-napkin-math has Michigan State around the 7-10th best job in the new Big Ten. The Spartans absolutely rank behind Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC, Oregon, and Wisconsin, and then it’s a debate with Washington, Iowa, Nebraska, etc. 

Originally, divisions were to be scrapped next fall — potentially balancing the schedules for teams like Michigan State in the Big Ten East, which recently has been chasing Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. But with another round of realignment, the league is back at the drawing board figuring out its future scheduling model. So there is uncertainty about how difficult the Spartans’ future slates will be. 

This is definitely a rebuild, too. The bones of the roster aren’t great.

Whoever MSU targets must be aggressive in recruiting — both in high school ranks and the transfer portal. Mel Tucker went on a portal shopping spree in 2021, landing Kenneth Walker and a host of transfers that won 11 games. But it wasn’t sustainable because he was unable to consistently land all the 4- and 5-stars visiting East Lansing. 

Tucker did get back on track last cycle, signing as many blue-chip prospects (eight) as Michigan, so the potential is there for State to land Top 25-ish classes. 

Ideally, the candidates have a background inside the Big Ten footprint. Head coaching experience certainly seems like a top priority, too. 

Among those who make sense for Michigan State are veteran coaches like Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi, who was the Spartans’ DC under Dantonio from 2007-14, Kentucky’s Mark Stoops, who would be an ideal fit but seems unlikely to leave for any job sans his alma mater Iowa, or Iowa State’s Matt Campbell, who might be ready for a fresh start and a pay raise. 

Mike Elko might emerge as the most sought-after coach on the market come December, and Michigan State absolutely can pay more and is a better job, than Duke. 

Sean Lewis has absolutely raised his profile since leaving as Kent State’s head coach to be Deion Sanders’ offensive coordinator at Colorado. By season’s end, his resume (especially if Shedeur Sanders keeps playing so well) could be very attractive to a Big Ten program like Michigan State. I’d be surprised — considering the cleanup that’s needed in East Lansing coupled with the job requirements of a head coach in today’s college football — if MSU targeted coordinators with zero head coaching experience, but the industry is certainly high on guys like Sherrone Moore (who likely is the next-man-up at Michigan), FSU OC Alex Adkins and Ohio State’s Brian Hartline. 

However this plays out, the Spartans should have solid options. Mel Tucker might’ve handed the program the greatest get-out-of-jail-free card, and now they can hit a hard reset in advance of a very different-looking Big Ten a year from now.