If USC continues showing signs of life defensively, watch out for Trojans in 2023

“Lincoln Riley finally has a defense” might be the scariest sentence for every other head coach in America. 

It’s too soon to know if that statement is true just yet, but through a quarter of their season, the USC Trojans are showing signs of a pulse defensively. Through three games, Alex Grinch’s unit has progressively improved, and while the competition will get ratcheted up here soon, the early returns from a unit that was shredded a season ago look promising. 

In 2022, USC was feast — 28 takeaways, tops in the Pac-12 — or total famine — 100s nationally in total defense, yards per play allowed, rushing yards per play and passing defense. USC’s advanced metrics were even uglier, ranking No. 127 (last among Power 5) in success rate and EPA.

The Trojans lacked physicality and couldn’t tackle. Caleb Williams’ brilliance masked the defense’s deficiencies for most of the fall before the Trojans were embarrassingly exposed by Utah in the Pac-12 Championship (533 yards, 47 points and 24 missed tackles!) and Tulane in the Cotton Bowl (Green Wave averaged 9.0 yards per rush).

Many pinned for Grinch to be fired, but Riley loyally stuck by his right-hand man, believing better results would come in Year 2 with new personnel and more familiarity with the scheme and expectations. 

So far, he’s mostly been right. 

Fight On actually is fighting more on defense. They look different. Bigger. Faster. Dare I say it? Tougher?

“USC’s defense is better than last year,” Fox analyst Joel Klatt said on The Joel Klatt Show podcast Monday. 

“They’re playing better than okay on defense. I would venture into the good territory. They’re more physical up front. They cause more disruption up front. They’re winning upfront because they’re better. They’re not completely reliant on turnovers like they were a year ago in order to get extra possessions.”

I can’t get on board with “good” yet, but serviceable? Absolutely.

USC’s SIGNS OF DEFENSIVE IMPROVEMENT

USC is a Top 50 defense in SP+ right now. The Trojans’ success rate ranks 62nd — more than a 60-team jump from a year ago. Against Nevada and Stanford, they had 10 TFLs apiece — something that never happened twice all of 2022. 

They’re not relying on turnovers (just four takeaways), and they’re getting contributions from a deeper pool of players (15 guys have at least one TFL). Safety Calen Bullock is a budding star and a guy like senior edge Solomon Byrd, a transfer from Wyoming last year, looks more comfortable in his second season playing for Grinch (team-high 4.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks). The additions of Bear Alexander and Anthony Lucas have helped improve the pass rush, with PFF crediting USC with 57 pressures the last two games. 

Run fits and tackling (22 misses in the last two games combined) remain real red flags. The Trojans need to get better on first downs (Stanford averaged 7.5 yards per first-down play), too. 

But when you look under the hood, there’s clearly the potential for Alex Grinch’s unit to finish somewhere between 50-70th nationally in a slew of metrics. 

Which would make USC the clear Pac-12 favorite and a legitimate College Football Playoff contender and 

With Caleb Williams rubber-stamping last season’s Heisman Trophy will an even more impressive start in 2023 (13 total touchdowns, zero turnovers, 79% completion), USC is capable of dropping 50-burgers on most teams on its schedule. The Trojans are going to put up points against the likes of Notre Dame, Washington and Oregon. Can they get enough stops? 

Three weeks ago, I wasn’t so sure. But now we’ve seen three games from USC, and the result make one wonder, “Hmm?” After this weekend’s idle date (one of two on the season), the schedule will start to really stiffen (at Colorado to end September will be their first test). We’ll know come Halloween if the early season signs were a mirage or a harbinger of what’s to come. 

Lincoln Riley’s teams have always had the same fatal flaw. If that’s been fixed enough? Watch out.