Illinois vs Penn State point spread: Picking Fighting Illini vs Nittany Lions

Week 3 of the college football season will be the start of Big Ten conference play for the Penn State Nittany Lions and Illinois Fighting Illini. It’s been a while since these two programs have faced off, with their last matchup coming in 2021. And similar to that contest, Penn State enters as heavy favorites to pick up the win.

Ahead of this week’s three Big Ten matchup, On3’s Andy Staples brought Statsowar’s Parker Fleming on as a guest of the Andy Staples On3 podcast. And the two gave their thoughts on the Penn State-Illinois matchup, where the Nittany Lions are favored by 14.5 points.

“Penn states a 14.5-point favorite going into champagne. Most of us watched the Illinois vs. Kansas game on Friday,” said Staples. “Jalon Daniels just tore up Illinois’ defense, which was a little surprising to me because they have defensive line talent. Like, Johnny Newton is a dude in there in there. But Jalon Daniels made it look easy. And then I felt like Illinois, they weren’t doing with Luke Altmyer what you can do with him. I’m thinking you kinda gotta unleash this guy if you’re going to have a chance.”

Altmyer had some success against the Kansas Jayhawks defense, but it came when the game was all but decided. The sophomore quarterback who transferred to Illinois over the offseason from Ole Miss found the end zone three times against the Jayhawks — two rushing and one passing. But he also had his fair share of struggles as he turned the ball over twice in the game, throwing two interceptions.

“On the defensive side, we knew they were going to take a step back,” said Fleming. “Losing Ryan Walters, losing multiple NFL draft picks, they were going to take a step back. I’m not sure we really expected it to bottom out like it is — 124 in EPA for play this week. One, I’m looking at Jalon Daniels and his performance against him last week. 46.9 percent of his dropbacks were play-action, and he completed 78.6 percent of those with 8.4 yards per attempt and two touchdowns there.”

“You lose guys and the defensive backfield, it doesn’t matter if your defensive line is really, really good; if you don’t have guys back there, they’re still going to be able to find holes. So I think that that’s a really big issue. I am much less charitable to Illinois as a home dog.”

As the two continued, they turned their attention over to Penn State, revealing what their expectations are for the Nittany Lions entering into this Week 3 contest.

“I think Penn State is a very, very consistent team, very physical team. (They) run the ball well, pass the ball well. I wanna see a little bit stouter run defense. I think(Penn State) should win this one pretty handily,” said Fleming.

In their first two games of the season, Penn State has been nearly unstoppable on the ground. The Nittany Lions are averaging nearly five yards a carry as a team end; eight of their thirteen offensive touchdowns have come on the ground. But running the ball is not the only thing Penn State is good at.

With Allar’s arm talent, the Nittany Lions can bludgeon their opponents through the air, especially with all the talent that the program has at wide receiver. That fact is why Staples wants to use this game to focus on the offense, comparing this season’s unit to last season’s, which was led by Sean Clifford.

“So here’s my thing about Penn State in this one: I want to see how different Penn State with Drew Allar from Penn State with Sean Clifford,” said Staples. “I feel like this is the kind of game I feel like this is the kind of game that can reveal that. Because Sean Clifford’s Penn State offense, they probably win this game by six or seven points. If Drew Allar is what we think he is, then they blow Illinois off the field. That’s what I think is going to happen.”

Both Staples and Fleming see this game as a not-too-difficult road win for Penn State. However, the host did have a cautionary reminder for Penn State fans. As mentioned above, the last time these two teams played was in 2021. And similar to that matchup, the Nittany Lions entered the game ranked No. 7. Unfortunately, that game went nowhere near the way Penn State would have liked as they were upset at home by Illinois 19-17.

“Now, the last time they met, they did play nine overtimes, and Illinois won. But that was a while back.”