Intel on Ohio State-Penn State matchup from opposing coaches

Here’s a good trivia question for you: Who was the last Penn State head coach to beat Ohio State in Columbus?

It wasn’t James Franklin, Bill O’Brien or Joe Paterno. It was actually Tom Bradley during his run as the Nittany Lions’ interim head coach. That was 12 years ago.

Since then, Penn State is 0-5 in Columbus and 1-10 overall against the Buckeyes (with the last win coming in 2016).

Could this year be different? Could this massive upcoming showdown between the No. 7 Nittany Lions and No. 3 Ohio State end up being a huge next step for Penn State within its quest for a first College Football Playoff appearance? 

To help answer those questions, On3 gathered insight on both teams from a combination of head coaches, assistants and personnel staffers whose teams have faced either Penn State or Ohio State this season. Here’s a rundown of what they said:

Penn State’s defense

Despite losing two defensive backs that went in the first three rounds of this year’s NFL draft (Joey Porter Jr. and Ji’Ayir Brown), Penn State’s defense looked so good during the spring and preseason that people around the Nittany Lions program fully expected this year’s defense to not only be better than last year’s unit that ranked in the top-20 nationally but to be one of the truly elite defenses in the nation. Through six games, the group has been as advertised.

Although the defense hasn’t faced an offense with anywhere near the talent of Ohio State (with the first six opponents being a combination of West Virginia, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern and UMass), this Manny Diaz-led group ranks No. 2 nationally in scoring defense and has yet to allow more than 15 points in any single game. Only one of those first six opponents even reached the double-digit point mark if you exclude garbage time touchdowns that came in the final four minutes.

“The thing that you can’t prepare for is the speed of their defense,” an opposing coach said. “They’re so freaking athletic. Now, Manny’s very exotic with what he does and they do end up being out of place a lot, but they’re so athletic that they make up for it.”

Diaz, who is in his second season with the Nittany Lions after three years as the head coach at Miami, is a highly-respected defensive mind and a legitimate midseason candidate for the Broyles Award. In addition, he has a unit that features at least five players that NFL scouts expect to be selected in next year’s NFL draft, including at least a couple in position to go in the first round (cornerback Kalen King and EDGE Chop Robinson) as well as other potential early-round selections like linebacker Curtis Jacobs and EDGE Adisa Isaac.

Led by Robinson and Isaac, Penn State ranks No. 1 nationally in sacks with an average of 4.5 per game. Isaac and Robinson have combined totals of 12.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks. In total, 15 different Nittany Lions defenders have tallied at least one sack. 

The pass rush has contributed to Penn State being tied for third among Power Five teams in takeaways with an average of 2.17 per game.

“What Manny Diaz does on defense, for a young quarterback (like Ohio State’s Kyle McCord), creates issues,” an opposing coach said. “Now the thing I’ll say is, with Manny and all that blitz from everywhere s—, is it’s feast or famine. So if they can protect up all the s—, Manny can be reckless with the type of blitzes and stuff he does, being super- and hyper-aggressive. But for a young quarterback, it could be a problem.”

Even though it’s easy to forget because of Ohio State finishing with 44 points, the Nittany Lions did hold star QB CJ Stroud and the Buckeyes to just 16 points through the game’s first 51 minutes last year prior to two turnovers and a defensive score allowing Ohio State to pull away late.

However, in addition to points off turnovers, Penn State did also give up a 41-yard TD run to running back TreVeyon Henderson that gave the Buckeyes a 23-21 lead with 8:51 remaining.

“They slant and move so much that there’s going to be some creases,” an opposing coach said. “Now, you’re going to have some runs that are going to be a no-yard gain, but you’ve got to stay consistent with it. The biggest thing is you have to find a way to muscle three- or four-yard runs because if you continue to do that, they will mis-fit. And if they mis-fit, you’ve got to make them pay. I don’t think they’re as good inside as they are on the edges, but those d-ends are really legit. You can’t make it a drop-back war against them. You’ve got to find a way to move the quarterback out of the pocket some. You’ve got to find a way to take some pressure off of him with some play-action passes so those guys aren’t just straight coming, ears pinned back on drop-backs. 

“If you can be efficient running the ball and stay ahead of the sticks, it keeps them from being as exotic as they want to be and doing all those crazy things. And then another thing that we didn’t do as much because we were trying to shorten the game was tempo. With tempo, they still can do some exotic things but it makes them be a little bit more vanilla because they don’t have time to kind of get it all in and call it.”

Another important factor for Ohio State’s offense will be the availability of some key players who have been dealing with injuries. Henderson and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka both missed last week’s win over Purdue and are questionable for this matchup against Penn State.

Getting back Henderson, who has missed the last two games, would help with establishing a running threat. Although he’s been limited by injuries the last two years, Henderson had a 61-yard touchdown run during the Buckeyes’ 17-14 win over Notre Dame Sept. 23.

“That TreVeyon Henderson dude is legit,” an opposing coach said. “He’s the missing piece if they can get him going. He’s hard to tackle. He’s special special.”

The young quarterbacks

Unlike last year when the two quarterbacks were both veteran, multi-year starters (Stroud for Ohio State and Sean Clifford for Penn State), this matchup will feature two first-year starters in McCord for the Buckeyes and Drew Allar for the Nittany Lions.

McCord, a Class of 2021 five-star recruit, opened the season with just 239 yards, no touchdowns and an interception in a 23-3 win over Indiana but has since accumulated 11 touchdown passes with no interceptions in Ohio State’s last five games. His progression has contributed to star wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. posting at least 105 yards and at least one touchdown in four of the Buckeyes’ last five games.

“You’ve got to have the guys that can match up (with their receivers),” an opposing team staffer said. “There were often times when we went (man-to-man) and you have to win those matchups for four to five seconds. We tried to switch up as much as we could for the QB, disguise stuff, showing different looks with him being a younger guy and trying to get pressure, but we weren’t able to get home as much as we wanted to. 

“We would have liked to get more pressure on Kyle. But I know Penn State’s got some good rushers, some guys that can get after it. I think their best bet is to try to create pressure, try to limit the quick throws and hope that their (defensive backs) are good enough to win in that early two, three second interval right at the snap and get home.”

Although McCord was a modest 21 of 37 for 240 yards with no touchdowns during the Buckeyes’ victory over Notre Dame, he was responsible for three third- or fourth-down conversions on Ohio State’s game-winning touchdown drive. 

During the Buckeyes’ 37-17 win over Maryland Oct. 7, McCord was 17 of 22 for 306 yards with two touchdowns during the final three quarters after finishing the first quarter 2 of 7 for 14 yards. Then, during Ohio State’s 41-7 victory over Purdue last week, McCord completed only 57 percent of his passes (16 of 28) but threw for 276 yards and three touchdowns.

“He manages the game well, didn’t put the ball in any danger (against us) and made the throws he needed to make,” an opposing coach said. “They had a good game-plan for him to get the ball in and out of his hands quick and not make any throws that could have put the ball in our hands as far as interceptions.”

As for Allar, he has 15 total touchdown passes (12 passing and three rushing) with no interceptions, but he’s been limited to 208 passing yards or fewer in each of Penn State’s last five games. The Class of 2022 five-star recruit has also completed 55 percent of his passes or fewer in two of the Nittany Lions’ last three games against Power Five opponents (wins over Northwestern and Illinois).

Penn State is also one of just five Power Five teams yet with less than two passing plays of 40 or more yards. The only others: Nebraska, Texas A&M, Iowa and Minnesota.

“The QB was off early against us,” an opposing coach said of Allar. “He had some guys open, especially the tight end on certain plays, and he just didn’t connect. And him and the receivers, there were a couple comebacks and things like that on timing routes where they just didn’t seem in sync yet.”

Nevertheless, Allar did open the season with 325 yards and three touchdowns during a 38-15 season-opening win over West Virginia. He also had four touchdown passes during the the Nittany Lions’ 31-0 victory over Iowa Sept. 23.

“The plan was to bring pressure in his face and we did, but we thought he was going to make more rookie mistakes and he didn’t,” an opposing coach said. “He was not afraid of the rush and he made a couple big, sweet throws on the run. He got better as the game went on and played with a really calm demeanor. He didn’t look frazzled at all.”

Added another opposing coach: “He made a few throws in our game that were elite throws that we did not think he could make. And to me, if he’ll continue to progress, he’s kind of the catalyst to where they can take the next step because they’ve got all the other pieces.”

Question marks for Penn State

While Penn State is elite defensively, it’s very much fair to have questions about the Nittany Lions’ offense heading into this matchup against Ohio State and a defense that’s yet to allow more than 17 points in any single game.

It isn’t just limited to Allar either. While left tackle Olu Fashanu continues to position himself to be one of the first offensive linemen taken in next year’s NFL draft, multiple opposing coaches mentioned that they don’t think Penn State’s offensive line has lived up to its billing thus far as one of the nation’s top offensive line units.

The line has only allowed four sacks, but some issues with that group have contributed to the standout running back tandem of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen being limited to just 3.9 yards per carry in the Nittany Lions’ four games against Power Five opponents.

“Their play did not match their size,” an opposing coach said. “We thought they were going to really be able to move us around, but I thought we actually got after them. And when they were put on islands, they actually struggled against us. We did get some hits on the quarterback in some one-on-one situations. We were surprised with some of the success that we had against them. 

“And I think you can pressure the run game. I think you can use the second-level players, your linebackers and your edge guys, to bring pressure in early downs to manipulate the run game and keep those talented running backs from getting started. I think if you stay in (a base defense), I think they can find holes, and that’s when you’re kind of feeding into the offensive line. I think if you pressure them early, I think you can get them behind the chains and get them in some third-and-long situations.”

Another opposing coach pointed out Penn State tight ends Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren as being big keys for the Nittany Lions heading into the matchup with Ohio State. NFL scouts expect both to be drafted next year, potentially even in the first few rounds.

“The tight ends are an undervalued group as far as the blocking game and the pass game,” that coach said. “I think the game will go how those kids go because Ohio State has really good edge players and I think the tight ends will be a big factor in the pass game protection-wise and the run game.”

Question marks for Ohio State

Lou Holtz may appreciate this part.

Even though Ohio State is ranked in the top-three and has only had one game decided by fewer than 20 points, opposing coaches do see this Buckeyes squad being a step below some other recent Ohio State teams from a talent standpoint.

“If you look at Ohio State’s roster and the starters, they’ve got a lot of fourth- and fifth-year players playing,” an opposing coach said. “Places like Ohio State very rarely have fourth- or fifth-year players starting because their good players leave after three years. They rarely stay for fourth and fifth years. And then the quarterback, he’ll develop and be a good player but isn’t a dynamic guy (at the QB position) like what Ohio State’s had. This is not one of their best teams in my opinion.”

Although multiple coaches felt the Buckeyes’ offensive line group did a solid job against Notre Dame, multiple other coaches singled out the offensive line group as an area on Ohio State’s offense that’s clearly weaker compared to previous years. The Buckeyes lost three starters from last year’s group, including first-round offensive tackle Paris Johnson.

“The o-line is not very good,” one coach said.

Defensively, opposing coaches view Ohio State’s defensive back group as being vulnerable despite the Buckeyes currently ranking fourth-best nationally in pass defense.

Each of the five FBS QBs Ohio State has faced have finished with 209 yards or fewer, including Notre Dame star Sam Hartman, Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa, Western Kentucky NFL prospect Austin Reed and Purdue’s Hudson Card. Last week, Card was 13 of 32 for 126 yards. Still, opposing coaches believe the Buckeyes’ defensive backs can be exploited.

“The secondary is average as hell,” one coach said. 

While Ohio State does have several defensive players that NFL scouts view as early-round prospects, including EDGE J.T. Tuimoloau, defensive lineman Michael Hall, linebacker Tommy Eichenberg and safety Lathan Ransom, the Buckeyes don’t have that sure-fire first-round talent at cornerback that they’ve had in recent years.

It doesn’t help either that Denzel Burke, whom scouts now view as an ascending early-round player based on his play this season, may not play against Penn State after sustaining an injury last week against Purdue. That could leave the Buckeyes having to start someone like freshman Jermaine Mathews.

“Ohio State had that run of first-round corners and they’re not quite up there to that level,” an opposing team staffer said. “I think the transfer they got (Davison Igbinosun from Ole Miss) is solid, but I think if you have receivers that can that can win, you can use that to your advantage.”