Intel on Oregon-Washington matchup from opposing coaches and NFL scouts

For just the third time this season and for the first time since Week 4, we’re set to get a matchup between two top-10 opponents.

This game between No. 8 Oregon and No. 7 Washington features not only two College Football Playoff contenders but also two of the top offenses in the nation and two teams that combined for 1,114 yards during the Huskies’ drama-filled 37-34 win over the then-No. 6 Ducks last November that essentially eliminated Oregon from Playoff contention and handed Dan Lanning his first conference loss as the Ducks’ head coach.

Now, it’s time for Round 2 with many of the key players from last year’s matchup back and set to be part of this game that Washington enters as a three-point favorite.

To help get you prepared for this showdown, On3 gathered insight on both teams from a combination of opposing team staffers and NFL scouting sources. Here’s a rundown of what they said:

Oregon offense vs. Washington defense

As fans and people in the media continue to speculate about the third-best quarterback prospect for next year’s draft behind Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, there are a couple QBs that aren’t being talked about anywhere near enough based on continued feedback from NFL scouts. One is LSU’s Jayden Daniels. The other? Oregon’s Bo Nix.

Nix’s first year at Oregon was so strong and impressive — and such a step forward from his up-and-down three-year run as the starting QB at Auburn — that at least some NFL scouts already viewed Nix as a potential first-round pick even before this season started. Nevertheless, his stock is even stronger now based on the continued growth that’s been on display while leading the Ducks to a 5-0 start.

“Bo made a significant jump from his last year at Auburn to his first year to Oregon, and he has gotten even better,” an NFL scouting source told On3. “He’s turned himself into a legitimate NFL draft prospect.”

Nix ranks first nationally in completion percentage (80.4) and is the only QB nationally aside from Caleb Williams with at least 15 touchdown passes and fewer than two interceptions. In Oregon’s last two games, Nix has almost as many touchdowns (eight) as incompletions (10 on 65 pass attempts). 

“There’s a lot to like with Bo,” Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy said. “I don’t think he gets enough credit for the athlete that he is. We saw it more at Auburn than we’ve seen it at Oregon, but when the guy needs to run around and make a play off script, he can do that. He’s really good that way. And now what you’ve seen at Oregon, which makes you feel really good about the prospect, is that he cleaned up a lot of bad habits quickly in like a year’s time and he’s playing more from the pocket. He’s demonstrated the ability to do both things. …

“I think that when he left Auburn, there was just a narrative out there ‘Good Bo, bad Bo,’ and I think he was an easy target for a lot of people in the media. But he’s an NFL starter. There’s no question in my mind. To what level? We’ll see how the rest of the year plays out. And then once you get to that level, future success is dependent upon the club that he goes to and the support and everything he gets. But does he have NFL starter tools? 100 percent.”

Behind Nix, Oregon has scored at least 38 points in each of its first five games. The Ducks ran second nationally in scoring with 51.6 points per game as well as eighth in rushing offense and 10th in passing offense. They have also allowed the second-fewest sacks nationally, just three through their first five games.

“Bo gets the ball out of his hands,” an opposing team staffer said. “The average quarterback in college football gets the ball out of their hands in like 2.6 seconds. Bo gets it out in like 2.4. Doesn’t sound like a big difference, but it’s a big difference. I think it’s like top five in the country. He’s getting the f——— ball out of his hands. You add that with guys like (left tackle) Josh Conerly — and people in the recruiting world know who Josh Conerly is but the average fan of college football doesn’t know who that is — but Josh Conerly’s going to be a first-round tackle after his junior year. Same thing with Ajani (Cornelius) at right tackle. So they have two of the best tackles in the country. And then Bo is getting the ball out of his hands every 2.4 seconds when they’re throwing the ball. You can’t get to the quarterback. 

“The defensive line has to beat the offensive line in 2.3 seconds to get a sack. So they’re never going to be behind the sticks. That’s a big thing that a lot of people don’t realize or whatever. People are like ‘f—-, man. Our d-ends can’t get home.’ If you can’t get home, the chances are slim of beating Oregon. But the way they have their system set up and the way he’s dialed in and getting the ball out of his hands and the way their tackles are gifted, s—-, man.”

It helps Nix too that he’s surrounded by some fellow NFL prospects at positions like wide receiver, most notably junior receiver Troy Franklin. The 6-foot-3, 187-pound Franklin ranks ninth nationally with 107 receiving yards per game and is tied for sixth with seven receiving touchdowns.

NFL scouts view Franklin as a possibility to go in the first two rounds of next year’s draft. One scout described him as not just fast but “fast fast.”

“Troy Franklin is one of the best wide receivers in college football,” an opposing team staffer said. “We have a guy that runs 21.5 miles per hour on the regular and Troy Franklin made him look like he was in quick sand on one play, like ‘catch me if you can, b——.’

While Washington does have at least a few defensive players that scouts project to be drafted next year, including early-round EDGE prospect Bralen Trice, the Huskies have allowed 56 points in their last two games against Cal and Arizona. Washington is seventh in the Pac-12 in run defense, eighth in pass defense and second-worst in the conference in sacks with an average of just 1.2 per game.

“Washington’s going to have to be physical in the middle, especially on the defensive front,” an opposing team staffer said. “They don’t have a ton of mass there. They have some young guys who are big, but those guys are young and haven’t played in a game like this. So I think they’re susceptible to the inside run. I think they’ll be able to handle the perimeter stuff with just the speed they have on defense, but Oregon does such a good job with their run game scheme and getting hats to hats and popping holes open.”

For what it’s worth though, the belief among coaches is that Washington’s defense is better than the current numbers may suggest. And although they did allow 592 yards during their 37-34 win over Oregon last year, the Huskies did rank third-best in the Pac-12 in total defense last season.

“Even though the production numbers haven’t backed it up pass rush-wise this year, I think those EDGEs have all the talent in the world,” an opposing team staffer said. “They rotate a lot defensively too. They rotate those inside ‘backers a ton so they’re fresh, flowing sideline-to-sideline. They’re a lot deeper on defense this year than they were last year. They were definitely a lot slimmer last year, but I think this year they’re able to rotate some guys.

“That pickup of No. 1 at corner, (Oklahoma State transfer) Jabbar Muhammad, he’s been huge for them because I think they’re able to trust him walking up in coverage and he allows them to do a lot of things off of that. So I think he’s been a really, really good pickup because they didn’t have a guy like him last year. And I think a lot of those guys have been in the program for a handful of years and I think a lot of them have taken the next step in their development. And now, this is their second year in that scheme plus their third or fourth year in the program as a whole, so not only have they developed physically but they’ve gotten more comfortable with the scheme. 

“So I think their defense has taken the next step. And obviously no one really talks about them because of the offense, but they’ve done a really solid job this year in my eyes.”

Washington offense vs. Oregon defense

Although the actual draft outlook for Washington star QB Michael Penix isn’t what some media mock drafts may lead you to believe, he’s still at the very least an excellent college quarterback who’s very much an early-season Heisman contender.

After throwing for 4,641 yards and 31 touchdowns in his first season at Washington last year, Penix leads the nation with an average of 399.8 passing yards per game and ranks second behind only Caleb Williams with an average of 3.2 touchdown passes per game.

Had Penix turned pro after last season, scouts believe he likely would have been a later-round draft pick. Now, the general consensus among scouts seems to be that he’s more of a mid-Day 3 type prospect.

“That arm is pretty dang special,” an NFL scouting source told On3. “Obviously the processing is going to have to be better at our level because of his stiffness, because he’s just an average athlete and because he’s not going to be able to escape and try to create. And I do think a lot of this production may be system-based. But he can throw the ball. There’s no denying that. And that offense, they take a lot of shots and show off the arm. And he’s got a bunch of dudes that he’s throwing the ball to and he can just chuck it up and let them go.”

Before being limited to 31 points during a 31-24 win over Arizona (in a game that Penix finished without any touchdowns), the Huskies had scored at least 41 points in each of their first four games. That includes 91 total points in their wins over Cal and Michigan State.

“They do a lot of shifts and window dressing from an offensive standpoint,” an opposing coach said. “They might come out in empty and shift to a bunch and then one attached. They might come out in a bunch and shift to empty. They might start a (running back) out wide and then motion him into the backfield to see if you’re in man or zone coverage. They have a lot of max pro sets where they might have a tight end off the ball, they might have a running back in motion and they’ll motion the running back into the backfield. And when you have a back and a tight end, it’s a max pro look to where they have seven guys blocking and three deep routes coming across the field and Michael Penix has the arm to make those throws. It’s a lot of max pro shots down the field.”

With Penix distributing the ball, three different Washington receivers have at least 311 yards and at least three touchdowns. That includes early-round draft prospect Rome Odunze, who ranks third nationally with an average of 121.6 receiving yards per game.

“I think those three receivers are probably the best core group of three receivers we’re going to face all year (in the Pac-12),” an opposing coach said. “These guys are productive. These guys have a lot of experience. These guys have chemistry with that quarterback. And their receivers are really good at making plays on the ball. He just provides a lot of opportunities for those guys to make plays versus someone like a Shedeur (Sanders), who might take the sack instead of throwing into tight coverage. Michael Penix is throwing the football into tight coverage. He trusts those guys to go make a play.

“And something that’s intriguing, if you watch the film, is that a lot of the time Penix is releasing the football before his receivers are open. He is throwing these guys open. He has sheer confidence in his arm and his receivers’ ability to go get the football.”

Washington also has some other players on its offense that don’t get the attention of guys like Penix and Odunze but that are big parts of the Huskies’ offensive success. One that an opposing team staffer singled out was Washington tight end Jack Westover, a former walk-on who had three touchdown catches during the Huskies’ win over Michigan State.

“If you watch where he goes on the field, whether he gets the ball or even if he doesn’t get the ball, that’s a lot of the time where the ball’s going,” that opposing team staffer said. “They love to use him on the perimeter in the blocking game with their quick game stuff. They’ll line him up everywhere. They’ll line him up in the backfield, H-back, in-line, out wide, in the slot. He’s like their glue that holds that entire offense together and makes it flow because he’s so versatile. They’ll use him in the red zone a lot, like slipping him across the formation. 

“When we were getting ready to play them, you watch him over and over and you’re just like, ‘Man, they motion him everywhere, they line him up everywhere and usually the ball follows not too far behind.’ That was a guy that we thought was really a key to kind of stopping them and figuring out if he could key off like anything they were doing specifically in the run or pass game.”

Nevertheless, Oregon’s defense will provide the biggest test yet for Washington’s offense. Although Penix did throw for 408 yards with two touchdowns against Oregon last year, this year’s Ducks defense has held Oregon’s last two Power Five opponents — Stanford and Colorado — to just 12 total points after giving up 30 points during an early-season 38-30 victory over Texas Tech.

“I feel like Oregon is really good on the outside (at cornerback), but it’s going to come down to the play of the nickel and the safeties because Washington is going to get those guys in conflict,” an opposing coach said. “Washington’s going to have receivers running across the formation that are going to draw the attention of safeties while throwing post routes behind them.”

One of the problems for the Ducks against Texas Tech was the quarterback run game as Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough ran for 101 yards. However, Penix hasn’t run for more than 34 yards in any single game the last two seasons at Washington.

“I think teams have had some success with drop eight type stuff and dropping seven (against Washington),” another opposing team staffer said. “And I think Oregon will too because they have those elite types of pass rushers in terms of like a (Jordan) Burch and they have the depth up front to be able to rotate guys and keep them fresh. So Washington will probably have to keep them honest with their ground game, and I do think a lot of the stuff they do in the pass game too almost mimics the type of things you see in the run game with the quick game type stuff, whether it be the inside tunnel screens or the swings, but I think they’ll have to keep them honest in the run game so Oregon doesn’t just drop eight and let the pass rushers go to work.”

Lesser-hyped players on the rise as draft prospects

Outside of the big names and the guys who are already well-known to be early-round draft prospects, here are five other players in this game that NFL scouting sources and/or Nagy mentioned as being on the rise as draft prospects based on their play through the first half of the season:

Oregon right tackle Ajani Cornelius

The Rhode Island transfer has emerged as a potential top-three round draft pick. He was on the Senior Bowl’s midseason All-American team.

“He’s played as well as any offensive lineman out West right now,” Nagy said.

Oregon defensive end Brandon Dorlus

After earning All-Pac recognition each of the last two years, Dorlus is now in his third season as a starter for the Ducks. He has posted sacks and pass break-ups in each of Oregon’s last two games against Colorado and Stanford.

“He’s shown a lot more versatility,” an NFL scouting source said. “He made a really good decision to come back to school this year. He can play inside. He can play outside. He’s got power. He’s got quickness. He’s got twitch. He’s just a versatile defensive lineman that’s a good athlete.”

Oregon cornerback Khyree Jackson

Like Cornelius, Jackson was selected to the Senior Bowl midseason All-American team and is emerging as a possible top-100 draft pick. The Alabama transfer had interceptions against Texas Tech and Hawaii as well as three pass deflections versus Colorado.

“You’re talking about a guy that he couldn’t even get on the field at Alabama and was basically just a special teams player,” Nagy said. “And in the limited snaps that we did see him at corner over the summer (from his Alabama tape), it was really inconsistent and he looked like a guy that could play on special teams at the next level but the corner stuff was shaky. And, man, he’s playing really well to this point. He’s moved up the board about as much as any senior in this class regardless of position from where we had him.”

Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson

Powers-Johnson is another Duck quietly emerging as a potential top-three round NFL draft prospect. He’s starting at center for Oregon after seeing time at four different spots along the line for the Ducks last season — right guard, center, right tackle and left guard. That came after he played both offense and defense as a freshman.

During that freshman season in 2021, he made three starts along the offensive line and then made the transition to defense for Oregon’s Alamo Bowl game against Oklahoma and started at defensive tackle.

“He’s really fun to watch,” an NFL scouting source said. “He’s played really well.”

Washington right tackle Roger Rosengarten

Rosengarten is in his second season as Washington’s right tackle. The fourth-year sophomore was a preseason All-Pac 12 honorable mention selection.

“He’s been building some buzz,” an NFL scouting source said. “He may or may not come out this year, but he’s possibly a Day 2 guy as a tackle.”