Iowa vs. Illinois point spread: Picking Hawkeyes vs. Fighting Illini

Week 12 of the college football season is filled with several season-defining matchups. One of those matchups features the Illinois Fighting Illini taking on the top team in the Big Ten West division, the Iowa Hawkeyes. And On3’s Andy Staples and recruiting guru Josh Newberg broke down the line for this game while picking their winners in the process.

Matchups involving the Hawkeyes this season are not known for their scoring, to put it gently. But on Saturday, Iowa will take on an Illinois squad fresh from a high-octane 48-45 victory over Indiana. And that victory was courtesy of the stellar play from quarterback John Paddock. Still, Staples is weary of Iowa’s record against the under this season.

“John Paddock was excellent; John Paddock was 24-36 for 507 yards and four touchdowns,” said Staples. “…the under in Iowa games this year is 8-2. And you see, Vegas can’t make it low enough; they went down to 28.5. Their computers can’t handle it. It’s just like their computers can’t handle LSU. They keep setting the number too low for LSU, and they keep setting it too high for Iowa. I think this is the one.”

While Iowa’s record against the under mirrors their record on the season, 8-2, the On3 college football expert sees a shift coming this week. And he’s riding on Hawkeyes quarterback Deacon Hill to be one of the catalysts for a barrage of points on Saturday. He is also a fan of what Paddock has done for Illinois this season.

“He helped them beat Minnesota. Like, they may have found their guy. I don’t know. Iowa’s defense tends to make every quarterback, not the guy, but Illinois’s defense may help cause remember they just gave up a bunch of points to Indiana. And Deacon Hill just had a fairly effective game against a good Rutgers defense… So, I’m going to take the over.”

While Staples conjures a tangible reason to take the over in this Iowa matchup, Newberg is not as convinced as his counterpart. According to the On3 recruiting expert, there is enough film on Paddock for the Iowa defense to figure out a solution on how to neutralize him.

“That’s not as nuts as me taking the under. Look, there’s film out on Paddock now,” said Newberg. “He can be solved. He might not throw for 550 yards in this one. I’m taking the under.”

The line is currently sitting at 30.5 points; most will be tempted to take the over until they realize it is a game involving Iowa. For much of this season, Iowa’s defense has suffocated opposing offenses, holding opponents an average of 12.3 points per game while at the same time putting up an average of 18.8 points per contest. The averages suggest that the under is the best bet to make her. Still, Staples sees this contest as the exception to the rule.