Dear Andy: Is Brian Kelly or Lane Kiffin under more pressure when LSU plays Ole Miss?

We’ve already reached the stage in the season where some matchups feel like College Football Playoff elimination games, and you, the listeners of Andy & Ari On3, have questions. Let’s dive into the latest edition of Dear Andy to answer your college football questions.

From David:
Dear Andy,
After listening to you and Ari on Monday, I’m convinced Saturday’s game in Death Valley is both a “Loser Leaves Town” AND “Kitchen Sink” game for both Ole Miss and LSU. To make the playoff, neither team can lose it, and both fan bases are critically aware of it. My question is, which coach, Brian Kelly or Lane Kiffin, will feel more heat from the loss? 

Also, I have started making a list of all the local restaurants around campuses that you and Ari mentioned. In the off-season (if there is such a thing), can you guys make a list of your favorite local spots by school? We need this! For LSU, I’ll nominate Parrain’s for gumbo, jambalaya & po boys, and Fiery Crab for a boil.

We can work on a dining guide in the offseason, David. But the more pressing issue definitely is the question of who is getting cooked Saturday night in Baton Rouge. I think whichever coach loses this game will face fire from his fanbase, because the loser of this game probably isn’t running the table and making the College Football Playoff.

For Kiffin, a loss wouldn’t make anyone question whether he should be the Ole Miss coach. But this team is supposed to take the next step and make the 12-team CFP. If it loses Saturday, the chances of that happening dwindle to near zero. So Kiffin would get saddled with more “can’t win the big game” criticism.

For Kelly, a loss on Saturday might produce some questions about whether he can get LSU where it expects to go. Unlike Ole Miss, just making the CFP isn’t enough. LSU is supposed to win national titles. Kelly’s three immediate predecessors did that. So if in year three he can’t even get LSU into a 12-team playoff, that will generate some angst. (Though LSU’s 2025 recruiting class should grant Kelly some grace.) 

The downside of a loss seems more extreme for Kelly, but the pressure to survive this weekend feels pretty similar for Kelly and Kiffin. Unfortunately for them, only one will. 

Tiger Stadium should be unhinged, which will be spectacular. The Rebels haven’t won in Baton Rouge since the Jevan Snead/Greg Hardy/Houston Nutt team did it 2008. There have been occasions when Ole Miss has been the better team but wilted in the blazing cauldron that is Death Valley. It should be noted that so far, Kelly is 12-0 in night games at Tiger Stadium as LSU’s coach.

But this Ole Miss team should be experienced enough to handle the atmosphere. The Rebels just have to beat the Tigers.

If receiver Tre Harris — who has 52(!) catches through six games — can’t play because of the injury he suffered in the first half at South Carolina, Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart will have to show he can operate without his security blanket. It will be up to Juice Wells and tight end Caden Prieskorn to pick up the slack.

USC, South Carolina and UCLA all outpaced their season averages for yards per pass attempt against LSU’s defense, and two of those games came before the loss of linebacker Harold Perkins for the season. Ole Miss averages 11.3 yards per pass attempt. A team that averages more than that in a game usually wins that game.

So Ole Miss, which raced up and down the field on LSU last season, should be able to score. The question is whether LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier can channel his inner Jayden Daniels and try to match the Rebels score for score. LSU’s offense is better than any offense Ole Miss has played so far, so we could be in for another shootout.

Coming into the season, we assumed Ole Miss had the easier schedule draw of these two. Now, the remaining schedules for both teams look hard. Both play at Arkansas, where Tennessee just went down. LSU still must face Alabama, but Texas A&M is playing like it might be the SEC’s third-best team. The Tigers end the season with a visit from Oklahoma. Ole Miss, meanwhile, still must host Oklahoma and Georgia.

Neither slate is something a coach wants to face with no room for error. So the best bet is to win Saturday and leave a little wiggle room.

From Jon in Dallas:
Which teams currently ranked outside the top 12 would present the worst matchup for the top squads?

Vanderbilt, clearly. I’m only sort-of kidding. Quarterback Diego Pavia just led the Commodores to a win against Alabama, and there was nothing fluky about it. If Vandy can go blow-for-blow against the Crimson Tide and win, the Commodores could do the same to several other teams near the top of the rankings.

But there are a few other options as well.

Boise State: We watched the Broncos push Oregon to the limit in Eugene in week two, and tailback Ashton Jeanty makes Boise State a threat against anyone.

Arkansas: We just saw the Razorbacks beat Tennessee, and they’ll have several other opportunities (LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, Missouri) to beat currently ranked teams. Coordinator Travis Williams’ defense has been stingy, and the combination of quarterback Taylen Green and tailback Ja’Quinden Jackson forces defenses to load the box and allow for one-on-one matchups on the outside. 

Texas A&M: If the Aggies keep winning, they’ll be among those top-ranked teams we suspect they can beat. Texas A&M is ranked No. 15 with games against LSU and Texas remaining. The Nic Scourton-led defensive line is nasty, and the return of a healthy Conner Weigman last week against Missouri made the offense more dynamic. 

From Jake:
While this may be a bit reductive, it seems like one of the main issues Clemson is having in this new world of college football is their lack of money for NIL funding. It seems like Clemson is missing on more and more top recruits each cycle, and the roster is broadly starting to reflect that drop in talent. It’s not a precipitous drop, but a gradual one. Clemson can’t compete on the same level as these SEC and Big Ten programs when it comes to sourcing funding for their roster. It also explains Dabo Swinney‘s reluctance to throw himself headlong into the portal. 

If you read between the lines on Dabo’s comments on the portal, it seems like the only type of player he would be going after would be ones that Clemson would lose bidding wars for to other large programs. He believes players in the portal are either not good enough for Clemson, have a DNC tag, or Clemson can’t afford. 

When the long awaited revenue sharing model comes out (hopefully next year), would Clemson’s ability to keep its roster and direct excess funds outward put it back in a position to return to the top of the sport? In a leveled playing field with revenue sharing, Dabo’s “character building” pitch may sell better to potential recruits (and parents). Do you think revenue sharing could fix Dabo’s problems?

This isn’t reductive at all. It’s spot on. I said on the show last week that revenue sharing absolutely would get Clemson involved in taking players out of the transfer portal. This is what Swinney has been waiting for before trying to recruit more accomplished portal players. Will it suddenly make Clemson a program that puts a national-title contending roster on the field annually again? That remains to be seen.

Jake has perfectly interpreted Swinney’s previous statements on the portal. Let’s go back to Swinney’s interview last May with Roddy Jones at the ACC’s spring meetings. Swinney explained that in terms of evaluating transfers for Clemson, there were three types of players.

• Players who aren’t good enough to play at Clemson. This is most of the players in the portal, because Clemson recruits out of high school at a very high level.

• Players who could help Clemson but are already earmarked to go somewhere else because they were tampered with while at their previous school. Usually, a “Do Not Contact” tag means the player already knows where he’s going before he enters the portal.

• Players who could help Clemson but are out of reach because Clemson’s collective either can’t afford their asking price or because paying the asking price would create disruption with the veteran players Clemson paid to retain. Those are still probably the most valuable players on the team, so paying a newcomer more could be problematic unless the newcomer is a bona fide star.

Clemson doesn’t have the largest donor base compared to other programs that compete at a similar level, so raising money for NIL isn’t as easy for the Tigers as it is at Georgia or Alabama or Ohio State. But if Clemson can use some of its TV or ticket sales money to give to players — which is what will happen if revenue sharing starts next year as expected — then it suddenly becomes much more competitive on the transfer market.

Remember, Clemson isn’t going to need to overhaul its roster. Because the Tigers still recruit well out of high school and tend to have a higher-than-usual retention rate, they would only need to plug in players at a few key spots each year to field a roster that should be able to go toe-to-toe with anyone. Even if Alabama and Ohio State can amass a bigger war chest because of a combination of revenue sharing and NIL — let’s be real; whatever enforcement arm the schools are going to create to police NIL is going to be toothless — the gap will be significantly smaller. Clemson will have the money to get in on the players it needs.

It will be up to Swinney and his staff to close those players, but if Clemson is in a similar financial ballpark, the chance for on-field success and the track record of developing players for the NFL should allow the Tigers to grab a few transfers who can contribute. And that’s all they need.

But Clemson won’t be the only school that benefits. This could be huge for a school like Wake Forest as well. Prior to the NIL/unlimited transfer era, Dave Clawson could out-evaluate and out-develop rivals. Now, any player who plays well for the Demon Deacons is being recruited like crazy to transfer. Give Clawson $15 million or so to build a roster and he’s going to keep a lot of those players and find some gems in the portal who might not be as expensive as the ones being recruited by annual College Football Playoff contenders.

The math is going to change for a lot of schools, and the better evaluator/developers (like Swinney and Clawson) are about to have a much better situation.

A Random Ranking

Jon in Dallas had a great suggestion: 

“I recently discovered that bananas in grilled cheese is a thing that’s out there. How about a ranking of foods that surprisingly taste great together?”

Let’s do it. Though maybe it’s just me, but bananas on grilled cheese (much like peanut butter-and-banana sandwiches) don’t sound that weird …

1. Peanut butter on a burger
2. Chile mango
3. Chocolate cake made with mayonnaise
4. Chili and cinnamon rolls 
5. Cheddar cheese on apple pie