Dear Andy: Is Penn State QB Drew Allar or Clemson QB Cade Klubnik under more pressure?

We’re two days away from the kickoff of the 2024 season, and you, the listeners of Andy Staples On3, have questions. Let’s dive into the latest edition of Dear Andy to answer your college football questions.

From Dan:
Who is under more pressure as a former highly ranked recruit who could be considered to be underwhelming so far: Drew Allar or Cade Klubnik?

They’re both under intense pressure. Allar’s Penn State team and Klubnik’s Clemson team are both expected (by their schools’ fanbases) to make a College Football Playoff run, but each of those teams seems to lack a certain element that would make them a higher confidence pick for the CFP. In the case of both teams, the passing game is the area that needs to improve the most.

Whether that’s the fault of the receivers, the QB or both remains to be seen. Clemson, for example, delivered an epic run of great receivers that ran from DeAndre Hopkins through Tee Higgins with Adam Humphries, Sammy Watkins, Artavis Scott, Mike Williams and Hunter Renfrow all assaulting defenses. But Clemson hasn’t had a dominant receiver since Higgins.

Is that because Clemson has failed to develop receivers? Or is it because Clemson hasn’t had a quarterback like Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence since Lawrence left following the 2020 season? 

It’s probably some of column A and some of column B. DJ Uiagalelei replaced Lawrence in 2021 and ultimately lost his job to Klubnik late in the 2022 season. 

Clemson has high hopes for freshman receivers T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco, but what if the offense doesn’t seem any more dynamic than it did last season? Would Clemson coach Dabo Swinney try redshirt freshman Christopher Vizzina instead? 

That would seem less likely than Penn State coach James Franklin and new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki turning to backup QB Beau Pribula if Allar struggles. We already know Pribula — who has primarly been used as a runner as if Franklin was trying to give Penn State fans Sean Clifford–Will Levis flashbacks — might have a role in the offense as-is. We also know Kotelnicki is adept at crafting roles for different QBs after doing it for Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean at Kansas.

Allar is in a tough spot going into this season because KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Penn State’s most productive receiver from last season, transferred to Auburn. Penn State’s prize pickup in the transfer portal was Julian Fleming, a former five-star recruit who didn’t quite live up to that hype at Ohio State. This doesn’t mean Fleming will be bad. Jameson Williams looked at an Ohio State receiver room that included Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave and decided to transfer to Alabama, where he became a first-rounder. Perhaps Fleming considered the possibility of playing alongside Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate and realized that the fourth-best of that group could be the best elsewhere.

When On3’s Clark Brooks covered Allar in his QB deep dive this summer, he noticed a QB who is great at taking care of the ball in part because he rarely takes any risks down the field. We don’t know if that’s a personality trait or because of orders from the 2023 coaching staff. If it’s the latter, a new OC might help unlock a different version of Allar who might throw a few more interceptions but who also might hit more big plays.

But if Allar is exactly the same as the 2023 version, would Penn State try Pribula just to see what happens? It’s certainly possible, especially given that Penn State’s defense should be good enough for the Nittany Lions to win just about any game before the at USC-at Wisconsin-Ohio State trio in October and early November. (The season-opener at West Virginia would be the diciest of the early games.) If Kotelnicki already has a package designed for Pribula, then presumably we’ll get a look at what he looks like with the No. 1 offense anyway.

At Clemson, it feels like more of an either-or. Not to keep beating the Deshaun Watson-Trevor Lawrence point, but it’s important to remember that those QBs made clear from the moment they set foot on campus that they were elite. It was only out of an abundance of caution by Swinney that neither started day one as a true freshman. (Though each eventually took over the job mid-season.) Klubnik eventually did take the job at the end of his true freshman season, but by that point of that year Uiagalelei wasn’t making the choice as difficult as it was when Swinney swapped Lawrence for Kelly Bryant in 2018.

From Sammy:
How many wins would define the Miami Hurricanes’ year as a successful one?

The magic number has at least two digits, Sammy. Miami has loaded its roster through the transfer portal and through high school recruiting. It has been gifted one of the easiest schedules in the ACC. It has to open on the road at Florida, but neither Steve Spurrier nor Urban Meyer is walking through that door.

In short, there is no excuse for Miami not to win at least 10 games and at least play for the ACC title.

This roster should be able to make the College Football Playoff. I’m not sure Washington State transfer Cam Ward was the best quarterback in the portal this offseason, but I do think adding Ward — an effective Air Raid QB at Incarnate Word and Washington State — to Shannon Dawson’s offense should give Miami reliable QB play. Oregon State transfer Damien Martinez averaged 6.1 yards a carry in an offense that frequently ran into heavy boxes. Theoretically, he should have more room to run with Ward and Xavier Restrepo threatening to stretch the field and with a line that features returning tackles Jalen Rivers and Francis Mauigoa. 

On defense, homegrown talent like edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. should mix with imports such as former Washington safety Mishael Powell to limit opposing offenses. 

Coach Mario Cristobal has to avoid brain cramps like the one that lost Miami the Georgia Tech game last year, and he also needs to challenge the conservative streak that always seemed to hold back his Oregon teams — which like this Miami team had better line-of-scrimmage talent than most opponents on the schedule.

Everything sets up nicely for Miami. But the Hurricanes, who have broken double-digit wins just once since 2003, still have to prove they can take advantage of their circumstances.

These next two questions were spawned by my Bracketology column from Wednesday…

From T-Mac:
Just as an example... Would a 13-0 or 12-1 Boise State or Memphis get a top-four spot over a 10-3 or 9-4 Big 12 champion?

This is a great question. We assume that the top four spots will go to the champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC in some order, but the College Football Playoff rules don’t specify which conferences get automatic bids or where those teams must be seeded. They state only that the five highest ranked conference champs receive automatic bids, and the four highest ranked of those five will receive the top four seeds.

So let’s look at T-Mac’s example. 

A 13-0 Boise State probably would just have a shot to be the No. 4 seed. It might wind up at No. 3 or No. 2. To go 13-0, Boise State would have to win at Oregon on Sept. 7. If that happened and the Ducks went on to be one of the best teams in the Big Ten or won the Big Ten title, Boise State would get a huge bump. 

A 13-0 Memphis might be in a similar boat. To go undefeated, Memphis would have to win at Florida State on Sept. 14. If the Seminoles lost to the Tigers and then won the ACC, American Athletic Conference champ Memphis likely would be ranked ahead of Florida State and ahead of T-Mac’s theoretical 10-3 Big 12 champ.

I don’t know if a 12-1 Boise State or Memphis with losses in those marquee games would get the same benefit of the doubt. They probably would have squandered their one chance to catapult themselves to a bye.

The Group of 5 team with the best opportunity to test this theory is USF. The Bulls play at Alabama on Sept. 7 and host Miami on Sept. 21. If they could beat one of these (assuming both have good seasons), then a 12-1 American champ USF would have a great case to be ranked ahead of a 10-3 (or maybe even 11-2) Big 12 champ. 

From Nick:
In this scenario, would Alabama have the best draw? They play one extra game, but at home against a G5, then the next against Kansas State which they would also be a heavy favorite. These auto-bids will be interesting.

We’ve discussed multiple times how No. 5 might have the best draw. Here’s the bracket to which Nick refers:

No. 8 Ole Miss hosts No. 9 Michigan
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in Rose Bowl

No. 5 Alabama hosts No. 12 Boise State
Winner faces No. 4 Kansas State in Fiesta Bowl

No. 7 Texas hosts No. 10 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in Sugar Bowl

No. 6 Oregon hosts No. 11 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 3 Florida State in Peach Bowl

In that situation, Alabama is the actual No. 3 team forced into a No. 5 seed by the CFP rules. If this scenario played out in real life, the Crimson Tide might be double-digit favorites against Boise State and Kansas State. Top-seeded Ohio State, meanwhile, might only be a single-digit favorite against the Michigan-Ole Miss winner. 

The way I ranked the teams assumes Alabama lost to Georgia in the SEC title game — and I remain hopeful the selection committee doesn’t drop championship game losers beneath teams that didn’t play in title games. If that’s the case, then Alabama would have had to play an extremely difficult game No. 13 and would be facing Ohio State which would be on game No. 14) in game No. 15. That likely negates some of the ease of the path.

But if the SEC title game was Georgia-Texas and Alabama — which doesn’t play the Longhorns — simply vaulted over Texas after the title game, then Alabama got a sweetheart deal compared to the actual champs of the Big Ten and SEC.

A Random Ranking

Rear Justin wants me to rank the best food prepared with tortillas. This proved more difficult than I had anticipated.

1. Tacos
2. Chips and salsa
3. Fajitas
4. Quesadillas
5. Burritos
6. Enchiladas
7. Chilaquiles
8. Chicken Tortilla Soup
9. Tostadas
10. Tortilla pizza