Is the ACC staring at a potential chaos season?

There are just 11 undefeated Power 5 teams remaining in college football this season — three apiece in both the Pac-12 and ACC. 

Starting with Saturday’s monster matchup between Oregon and Washington, the logjam out west will be sorted out on the field in the next six weeks. 

But are we staring at potential chaos this season in the ACC?

The conference that had some of its chief members loudly wanting to leave the league this summer suddenly might have the most compelling championship race in 2023. 

Florida State, North Carolina and Louisville are all undefeated. But unlike USC, Oregon and Washington, none play each other. The ACC ditched divisions this season, pivoting to a more sensible scheduling model where the teams simply with the top two records would play in the conference title game. 

Well, it was supposed to be simple. Best laid plans and all. 

Establishing a tie-break was simple when teams within a division play a round-robin schedule. But with the schools now playing each other twice within a four-year span, it left open the possibility of potential outlier results. 

Like what’s happening in 2023. 

The ACC’s new tie-breaker policy — specifically for three teams — requires the math skills of John Nash in a Beautiful Mind. It’s complicated and includes a seven-point system where the sixth tie-breaker is determined by the teams with the best SportsSource analytical rating and No. 7 has the winners decided by a draw.

But will the Seminoles, Tar Heels and Cardinals all finish ACC play unscathed?

ESPN’s FPI gives UNC, which has an FCS opponent and six conference games left, just a 6% chance to run the table. Louisville’s odds are even lower at 4%. The Seminoles, which were expected to be among the nation’s best, still has much better odds to lose a conference game than go undefeated. 

So even though the Cardinals, which I wrote about during the preseason were a darkhorse ACC contender because of its cake schedule, will be favored in the majority of their games down the stretch, don’t bet on chalk. 

As we saw down at Miami (which would have been included in this chaos had Mario Cristobal not committed a crime against the Football Gods) on Saturday, wild results can — and will — happen. 

And yet, that doesn’t mean the ACC isn’t in store for a chaotic final six weeks.

While it is very unlikely (anywhere between 1-3% depending on the model) that FSU, UNC and Louisville all go undefeated, there’s a potential outcome where all three teams go 7-1 in conference play. Also probably not happening, but you can’t rule it out. 

Another school factors into the equation, too. Duke is also undefeated in ACC play. The Blue Devils will be without starting quarterback Riley Leonard for a couple of weeks, so they’re in a tough spot, but they do play all three ACC contenders and could factor into the tie-breaker scenarios — as a common opponent or perhaps a contender themselves. 

Florida State could go undefeated and North Carolina, Louisville and Duke could easily all finish 6-2. Then the same crazy tie-breaker scenarios would still be in play. 

In terms of scheduling, FSU still has to play Duke and Miami. North Carolina hosts the Hurricanes this weekend, and has a tough November stretch that includes Duke and at Clemson. Louisville also plays Duke and Miami. 

The ACC is in for a wild, furious finish. It will probably all sort itself out and we have two clear-cut teams at season’s end. 

But most folks watching Georgia Tech-Miami probably thought the Hurricanes would just take a knee to win the game, too.