Daily briefing: On wild CFP and Heisman races, Illinois’ surprising loss and the Big Ten West title chase

Ivan Maisel’s “Daily Briefing” for On3:

Four glorious weeks to go to get answers

Four weeks left in the season, and there are not a lot of clear-cut answers. That’s what fans have been clamoring for, isn’t it? It looks as if the eighth College Football Playoff will be the first without either Alabama or Clemson. After Georgia and the Michigan-Ohio State winner, you can make a case for pretty much anyone in the top 10, or to put a finer point on it, anyone ranked above wherever the Crimson Tide will drop. More exciting is the uncertainty in the Heisman race. Both Hendon Hooker of Tennessee and C.J. Stroud of Ohio State played well below the standard they have set. Three games are enough to wash the taste of Saturday out of voters’ mouths. But Hooker and Stroud opened the door wider for someone else. Bo Nix of Oregon? Max Duggan of TCU? Caleb Williams of USC? Does Stetson Bennett earn consideration for sheer results?

‘This is the definition of how to lose a game’

If you ran a computer simulation of the Illinois-Michigan State game 10,000 times, the Illini would have won 9,800 of them. The Spartans won 23-15 Saturday even though Illinois outgained them (441-294), had half the penalty yardage (39-77), the same number of turnovers (one) and didn’t miss a field goal. The bluster of 30-mph winds kept kickers on the bench. More important, Michigan State’s defense, which had eight players suspended last week after the tunnel brawl at Michigan, won the close battles, stopping Illinois three times on fourth-and-2 or fewer. Put another way: Out of 12 possessions, Illinois finished five drives in Michigan State territory without points – at the Spartans’ 2 (downs), 22 (fumble), 29 (downs), 20 (downs) and the 25 (time expired). Illinois coach Bret Bielema: “It seemed like every time we tried to get ahead, something would hold us back; a lot of them were self-inflicted. I told the guys in the locker room, ‘This is the definition of how to lose a game.’ ”

Could chaos reign in Big Ten West?

Illinois’s loss is a gift to chaos lovers everywhere. The Illini is 4-2 in the Big Ten West, with a one-game lead over Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin and Minnesota. If you’re looking for the Big Ten West to have the most convoluted tiebreak in recent memory, then you’re pulling for the Boilermakers to win at Illinois on Saturday. Those two, the Iowa-Wisconsin winner and Minnesota (playing Northwestern, which is 1-8) would be tied for the division lead at 4-3. In fact, of the teams chasing the Illini, Purdue has the easiest path to the Big Ten Championship Game. The Boilermakers close with Northwestern and at Indiana (3-6 overall, 1-5 in the Big Ten).