Jack Swarbrick makes dark prediction for future of NCAA

NIL and the transfer portal are two of the most polarizing topics in college sports. It’s led many to question the future of Division I — and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick made quite a prediction about that in an interview with Sports Illustrated.

Speaking with SI’s Pat Forde, Swarbrick said the end of Division I is “inevitable” as the landscape begins a dramatic shift. He went so far as to put a timeline on it, as well.

“Absent a national standard, which I don’t see coming, I think it’s inevitable,” Swarbrick told Forde. “Mid-30s would be the logical time.”

It’s been a transformative offseason for not only college football, but college sports on the whole. The transfer portal was very active, and NIL deals became the forefront of recruiting. Last year, Quinn Ewers famously de-committed from Texas to re-classify to the Class of 2021 to enroll at Ohio State and sign a landmark NIL deal. Ewers ended up transferring from Ohio State to Texas this offseason.

NIL’s role in recruiting has become a hot-button issue this offseason, notably as Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher landed the nation’s top recruiting class and has gone back and forth with Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin about NIL’s role in that success.

Jack Swarbrick: ‘There’s always been sort of a spectrum’ in college sports

But Swarbrick’s issues run deeper than NIL and the portal. He pointed to teams leaving their current conferences, possibly alluding to Oklahoma and Texas leaving the Big 12 for the SEC, as an area of concern. The timing of the move could line up with the end of the Big 12’s TV contract in 2025, hence Swarbrick’s timeline of the 2030s for the end of Division I.

But Swarbrick said he’s more worried about why students will choose to go to certain schools and how the “spectrum” will change amid the changes in college sports.

“There’s always been sort of a spectrum — and I want to stress that everything along the spectrum is valid; it’s not a criticism,” Swarbrick said. “On one end of the spectrum, you license the school name and run an independent business that’s engaged in sports. The other end of the spectrum, you’re integrated into the university in terms of decision making and requirements, and some follow that.

“I think both can produce great athletic competition. But it’s really hard to get there given the contractual obligations that already exist.”