Jay Bilas, Seth Greenberg debate how Duke should defend NC State center DJ Burns

The old adage is that guards win in March, but when previewing the Duke vs. NC State game, the College GameDay crew circled the matchup down low as the key to victory one way or the other.

Wolfpack center DJ Burns is undoubtedly 2024’s biggest March darling, a behemoth post presence leading this magic carpet ride from down one point to Louisville at halftime in the first round of the ACC Tournament to five straight wins to take home that conference tourney title and now through three more victories in the NCAA Tournament to set up an Elite 8 battle with hated in-state rival Duke.

According to analyst Seth Greenberg, Burns has grown too powerful down low to merely be guarded by one man, and believes the Blue Devils can’t afford to leave their own center on an island against the NC State big man.

“If they’re going to play DJ Burns one on one, Kyle Filipowski can’t guard him. He guards him one on one, he’s going to get Kyle Filipowski in foul trouble,” asserted Greenberg. “If (Burns) stays in the game, there’s going to be a problem, because he can put people in foul trouble.”

Bilas wouldn’t rule out guarding him one on one, and believes Duke just has to play smart and not hand Burns easy points by fouling him. He may go for 20+ points, but Bilas wants those to be earned, not given for free.

“I think the whole game is how they’re going to guard Burns,” said Bilas. “Whether it’s Sean Stewart or Ryan Young comes into the game — I think Kyle Filipowski can guard him, just don’t foul him. He’s going to get to the rim, but just try to make him score over you. He’s not gonna score 60 points in the game. He’s going to score 2s and he’s not going to make all of them.”

The former Blue Devil player and ESPN analyst believes that an effort to double Burns would only lead to more defensive headaches, that’s why he likes the one on one approach more.

“That gives you the opportunity to limit everyone else and to guard the 3-point line a little bit better. That’s the key, you’re trying to limit. You’re not going to get a shutout in this game.”

Sure, Burns will feast down low in one on one coverage, but at least he’s having to put some blood, sweat and tears into each of those baskets, which could tire him out.

“When it’s Burns one on one in the post, he basically catches it out near the corner and backs you don’t like your dad in the driveway when you’re eight years old. There’s not much you can do to stop it. But those plays take about 20-25 seconds to run, and then he stays in the game longer. That means on the other end he’s got to guard somebody, and that’s an advantage for Duke. They need to make him guard.”

According to the GameDay crew, this Tobacco Road showdown will come down to how Duke guards DJ Burns and how effective Burns is in handling whatever the Blue Devils throw at him.