Jay Bilas breaks down key to Michigan State-North Carolina matchup in NCAA Tournament

No. 1 seed North Carolina and No. 9 seed Michigan State will face off in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday in a game that is expected to be close.

The Tar Heels are only favored by 3.5 points, despite being the much better seed on paper. ESPN analyst Jay Bilas joined SportsCenter Saturday morning to break down the matchup.

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Bilas believes North Carolina can win if it does one thing in particular.

“I think it’s North Carolina’s defensive intensity,” Jay Bilas said of the key to the game. “This has been a team this year that their defense has determined the height that they reach. And when they bring great defensive intensity, they’re a really good team.”

North Carolina is typically known more for its offense than defense, and while this UNC team is capable of scoring points in a hurry, it’s also a really good defensive squad.

UNC is No. 7 nationally in adjusted defense, according to KenPom.

“Usually when you talk about Carolina, you’re talking about their transition game, their offensive rebounds, trying to stop them. And they’re good at all of those things. They’re a good scoring team,” Bilas said. “But when they guard at the highest level, they are really hard to beat.”

That hasn’t always been the case this year, though. Most of the time, North Carolina plays sound defense, but there are times when the Tar Heels have struggled. They need to be at their best against Michigan State.

“They brought it against Florida State in the ACC Tournament, they brought it against Pittsburgh. They didn’t bring it at the same level in the championship game against NC State, and that was the difference between winning and losing,” Bilas said. “I think it goes similarly with Michigan State. Because Michigan State, if they play the way they did against Mississippi State, Michigan State can beat anybody.”

Michigan State beat the Bulldogs 69-51 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday.

The Spartans were one of the top teams in the country in the preseason but have been inconsistent all year. However, they appear to be playing their best down the stretch.

“They were a top 5 team to start the year. They had a bumpy ride, but they’re still an experienced team that has real talent, and really one of the great matchups is going to be how their 5 men do against Armando Bacot,” Bilas said. “They’ve struggled at the 5 position all year long, and Armando Bacot, who’s one of the great players in this tournament and one of the most accomplished, can he take advantage of that?”