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Joe Lunardi releases updated Bubble Watch breakdowns for SEC, ACC, Big 12

ns_headshot_2024-clearby:Nick Schultz•about 9 hours•

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March Madness logo on a basketball in 2024
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As conference play continues around college basketball, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released his updated Bubble Watch for three conferences. He put out new breakdowns for the SEC, ACC and Big 12 on Wednesday.

In his breakdowns by conference, Lunardi listed teams that are “locks” for the NCAA Tournament and those “likely” to make the field. He also had updated seeding projections for other teams from each league, as well as First Four Out and Next Four Out projections.

Additionally, Lunardi listed teams “considered” for the field. The update comes ahead of some pivotal games around the country through the early part of league play.

Bubble Watch: ACC

Joe Lunardi has one team as a “lock” to make the NCAA Tournament. He has Duke as the No. 2 overall seed and a No. 1 seed in its region. From there, he has four other teams in the field.

Louisville comes in as a No. 7 seed – No. 25 overall – and Clemson is up to a No. 8 seed. Pitt dropped to the No. 34 seed and North Carolina is the No. 36 overall seed, putting them both at the No. 9 level. From there, SMU comes in as the No. 75 overall seed to come in as one of the Next Four Out, and Wake Forest is “considered” at No. 88 overall.

SEC

Auburn coach Bruce Pearl was proud of his team's defensive effort against Missouri.
Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

The SEC continues to cement itself as the top conference in college basketball, and Joe Lunardi’s projections show why. Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama and Florida all come in as No. 1 and No. 2 seeds while Kentucky, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Mississippi State sit on the 3-, 4- and 5-seed lines.

Georgia, Missouri and Oklahoma check in as 7-8 seeds, while Vanderbilt and Texas are two of the First Four Out. Arkansas is in the Next Four out and LSU is “considered” as the No. 89 overall seed.

Big 12

Iowa State and Kansas are the only two “locks” from the Big 12, according to Joe Lunardi, while Houston dropped into the 80% category as the No. 13 overall seed. Arizona is the projected automatic qualifier as a No. 6 seed, and Baylor is also on the 6-seed line.

West Virginia and Texas Tech are both in the projected field as No. 7 and No. 10 seeds, while UCF and Arizona State are two of the First Four Out. Cincinnati is among the Next Four Out and as the No. 77 seed, BYU is “considered.”