Joel Klatt breaks down Big Ten teams still alive in College Football Playoff race

The new-look Big Ten Conference has proven itself as one of the premier conferences in college football in 2024, so it’s no surprise they have multiple teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff heading into Week 10.

According to Joel Klatt, five teams have a realistic path to the playoff within the Big Ten alone. Four are obvious — and one that may surprise (or upset) a few fans across the country.

Oregon Ducks (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten)

The Ducks are the unquestioned No. 1 team in college football thanks to their victory at home against Ohio State in Week 7. They’ve looked every bit of the top team in the country having outscored their opponents 73-9 in the two games since.

“If you were to ask me to name one team that you are certain is going to go to the College Football Playoff, Oregon would be my top answer,” Klatt said. “They’ve got the cleanest path of anybody in the country.”

Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten)

We’ll get a better feel for the Nittany Lions by the end of the weekend as they play host to Ohio State during Week 10. Wisconsin gave Penn State a slight scare last week before breaking away in the fourth quarter to improve to 7-0 and remain undefeated on the season. Klatt said he cannot wait to be in Happy Valley this weekend.

“One loss and they’re in,” Klatt said. “An 11-1 Penn State, even if they weren’t to get to the Big Ten Championship game, they’re going to go because we think highly of them, and I think that the committee is going to think highly of them next week when it comes to their rankings.

“If you look at Penn State as a possible 10-2 team — they’re undefeated at this point — that would mean that they would have two losses in November, which would trend them in the wrong direction. … It’s questionable. I would probably argue for them to be in at 10-2 because of the way that they’ve played so far, but I don’t think it’s a guarantee.”

Indiana Hoosiers (8-0, 5-0, Big Ten)

Indiana‘s only issue is that it won’t play a ranked team until Nov. 23 when they take on Ohio State. Other than that, they’re 8-0 and have won all eight of those games convincingly. To Klatt, they’re the team he’s most interested to see where the playoff committee will ultimately rate the Hoosiers.

Klatt voiced his displeasure with the AP Poll, which currently lists Indiana as No. 13. While the Hoosiers have no wins over ranked opponents, they’ve remained farther back in the polls than a team like Miami, who started the season highly ranked and is in the top 10. Meanwhile, Indiana was unranked entering the year after winning just three games last season.

“Based on where they’re sitting right now, at No. 13, to me, I think that they have to go a minimum 11-1 in order to get in,” Klatt said. “You see, I don’t think that they would be afforded a 10-2 berth in the College Football Playoff, like some of these other teams that I think would absolutely make it at 10-2. So to me, Indiana can only lose one more.”

Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1, 3-1 Big Ten)

Ohio State’s date with Penn State on the road in Week 10 will answer many questions that are remaining about the hierarchy of the Big Ten Conference. While Oregon is the apparent top dog, No. 2 is a toss-up between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions to most. Either way, both programs are expected to be in the initial field of 12 at the end of the day.

“If they take care of business, then all they need to do is split Penn State and Indiana, and then they’re going to go [to the CFP],” Klatt said. “Now, what they would rather do is beat all of those teams and get a rematch with Oregon so that they can get a bye in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

“They want to go and win a Big Ten Championship and get a bye into that first round. That’s going to be their goal, and that’s why this weekend is going to be so huge.”

Michigan Wolverines (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten)

The reigning national champions still have the chance to surprise everyone by making it back to the College Football Playoff in 2024 after a rocky first nine weeks of the season offensively. Still, the path is there and Klatt isn’t counting the Wolverines out just yet.

“This is the only 9-3 team in the country that I believe actually has a realistic path to the playoff,” Klatt said. “And before you roll your eyes, just hear me out. I’ve said all year I don’t think 9-3 [teams] can get in. However, there are these two little caveats in there. And number one is that the CFP committee is supposed to take into consideration how you’re playing at the time and what’s happened previously in your season.

“And it’s pretty stark that Michigan has had to try to develop an identity during the course of the year. We’ve seen that play out. And they struggled early … but if the defending national champions win out and they’re 9-3, that would mean that they have wins in November over the No. 1 team in the country, Oregon, a top 10 team, at least in my estimation, Indiana and another Top 10 Team, Ohio State, two of those wins could be against teams that are undefeated at the time.”