Joel Klatt considers whether SEC champion could miss CFP

Only one conference has played in every single iteration of the College Football Playoff: the SEC. For almost all of those seasons, it was a given that at least one SEC team would be in the playoff by the start of October.

But as Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt explained on a recent episode of the The Joel Klatt Show, the SEC could be shut out of the playoff this year.

“If you’re an SEC fan, you’re rooting for Georgia because the chaos that ensues if the Bulldogs lose is pretty wild,” Klatt said. “The SEC is not the strongest conference this year. We know that. It’s not a given that the SEC champ is going to go. Now, if Georgia is undefeated, do they go to the playoff? Absolutely. And I’m not suggesting that they don’t. But here’s where it gets interesting. What happens if even Georgia were to lose a game and still win the conference? What happens then? What happens if a one-loss Georgia is compared to a one-loss Pac-12 team?”

Georgia, winners of the past two national titles, is currently 5-0 but has struggled to start the season against SEC opponents. Kentucky and Missouri are the only two other undefeated teams in the conference.

Even the one-loss teams in the conference are far on the outside of the College Football Playoff race right now.

“What was normally reserved for the SEC champ was that they weren’t going to go through a gauntlet so regardless of like, hey, you lost the game,” Klatt said. “But hey, look at all your top 10 wins. That’s what was always in the back pocket of the SEC champ over the last few years. And rightly so. Rightly so. We’ve seen non-division winners end up getting the chance to go to the playoffs. Alabama has had that opportunity. Why? Quality top end wins because of the depth of the conference. And again, rightly so. Now, all of a sudden, you have to kind of shift in your mindset. That’s what can and probably will and should be afforded to the Pac-12. Not the SEC.”

The Pac-12 currently has six teams ranked in the top 20 of the AP Poll. Three of those teams in Washington, USC and Oregon are ranked in the top 10. The SEC has only three teams — Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss— in the top 20 of the AP Poll.

“If Georgia were to lose one of these games, let’s just say against one of the ranked opponents Let’s just say it’s like to a West team like Ole Miss, which, by the way, Ole Miss right now currently is the highest ranked team on Georgia’s schedule,” Klatt said. “Let’s just say, sake of argument, they lose to Ole Miss. Still win the East. Still go and they win the SEC Championship. They would be a one-loss SEC champ. And likely their best win, they would hope, is against an Alabama team that they hope is crawling back into the top 10 by winning the West and representing that side in the SEC Championship Game. Again hoping that Alabama can continue to win again.

“That’s why Georgia fans, if I’m you, I’m rooting for Alabama this weekend in Kyle Field. Why? Because you need more ammunition on the resume. The resume all of a sudden in the SEC is going to be wildly thin as compared to the other conferences — in particular when you’re looking at the Big Ten and in particular when you’re looking at the Pac-12.”

With Alabama already having a defeat on its resume and LSU seemingly out of contention after two losses over the first five weeks, the number of contenders and very strong teams in the conference is much fewer than in recent years.

The other conferences will have muddy waters, too, as more upsets happen and top teams face each. But losing a top-10 game to a Penn State or Oregon will hold much different weight than an unranked Florida or Texas A&M.

“Again, it’s kind of blowing my mind right now,” Klatt said. “The SEC West is a mess and could continue to be a mess if A&M were to win. The end of the season, here’s the thing, everybody always thinks that it’s going to play out and it’s going to be this this nice, crisp we’ve got two undefeated and we’ve got two more one-loss teams and they’re all champs and it’s going to be clear because the fifth place team is going to be a two-loss team. That never happens. It’s never clear.”

Klatt then went over some of the scenarios he can see happening that could put the SEC at risk for a playoff spot if the conference doesn’t have an undefeated team.

There’s the potential that the three Big Ten East Division powerhouses — Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State — all finished the regular season with an 11-1 record. There’s the potential of multiple one-loss teams in the Pac-12. There’s the potential of an undefeated team in the Pac-12 title game losing — like TCU last season — except there opponent had just one loss.

“There are so many scenarios right now that you can play out plausibly in your mind that put the SEC in a real precarious situation, so long as they’re champion isn’t undefeated,” Klatt said. “Georgia, I think you’re the best chance, obviously, for the SEC. You’ve got the route that you can continue to win games and you’ve got to play better at the line of scrimmage to do so. Then if I’m a Georgia fan, I’m rooting for Alabama every chance I get because it really is the the lone team, potentially on the schedule later — this one would be an SEC Championship Game — that could actually be a top-10 caliber win. If they were to get to that point with only a Texas loss, speaking of the Crimson Tide, then Georgia would feel a lot better about their resume.”

Now, Klatt does conclude the argument by saying he thinks the SEC will have a team in the College Football Playoff. But even if they get a team in, it might not be a case where it’s an obvious choice.

“Do I think the SEC is gonna get left out? No. But imagine a scenario — just imagine a scenario — where Georgia has to make an argument as a one-loss team against a one loss Pac-12 team or a one-loss Big Ten team,” Klatt added. “You’re talking about the two-time defending national champion that’s gonna have a worst resume.”