Joel Klatt explains how Alabama can still control its own destiny for College Football Playoff

Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt still sees Alabama controlling its own destiny to the College Football Playoff, but there is no room for error.

Right now, Alabama is 5-2 with five games remaining. The Crimson Tide must go 10-2 and they will make the CFP, according to Klatt. If there’s a third loss, well, kiss those playoff hopes goodbye.

Despite a loss to Tennessee, and Vanderbilt a few weeks ago, Alabama is still in the thick of the race.

“I think now, after losing to Tennessee, I think Alabama might control their own destiny to go the playoff, but only if they win out (and go) 10-2,” Klatt said on his podcast. “Alabama with a win over Georgia absolutely gets in … I think that’s 100% and I think everybody would agree with me. Now the more tricky question is, does Alabama go to the playoff if they’re 9-3?. 10-2 and 9-3. And let’s just say for the sake of argument that the loss is LSU.

“At LSU, that’s going to be a tough environment, like, let’s just say sake of argument. Okay, 9-3 Alabama with a win over Georgia, do they go to the playoff? I pause because I think a lot of people would be like, ‘Oh, well, yeah, of course they would. They would have a win over Georgia.’ I don’t think so. I think Alabama has to win out.” 

Next up is No. 21 Missouri at home, so a ranked win at home would go a long way to restoring some confidence. But a loss? Alabama might be thinking about next season.

“Think about the number of teams that could still be ahead of them, not just in the country, but even just in the SEC,” Klatt said. “So think about this, if they lose to LSU. Let’s just say it hypothetically, if they lose to LSU, and they’re 9-3, they lost to Vandy, they lost to Tennessee, they lose to LSU, but they have a win over Georgia. Well, you would at least play out a scenario where Georgia, Texas, probably Texas A&M, LSU, almost certainly, if you give LSU a win over Bama and likely Tennessee, all have better records than them. All of them have better records than them. That’s five SEC teams. (The) SEC is not getting six teams into the playoff. They’re just not. There’s just not enough spots.” 

Alabama isn’t just competing against the SEC, the rest of the country has a lot of teams that could get into the expanded bracket.

“Like we could easily get a 12-1 Ohio State and Oregon,” Klatt said. “We could easily get an 11-1 Penn State. We could get a 10-2 Indiana. We could get an 11-1 Notre Dame, we could get a 12-1 both Miami and Clemson. We could get an 11-2 Kansas State, we could get a 12-1 BYU, we could get a 12-1 Iowa State. 

“And all of that is totally outside of Alabama’s control. So you heard it here first, hopefully Alabama 100% in if they win out. And I’m going to say 99.999% sure they’re out of the playoff, of they lose one more game … They would need major chaos out there, and if chaos starts to unfold, then, yeah, maybe because they would have a win over Georgia. So, let’s back it down, let’s call it 95%.”