Joel Klatt predicts Alabama to beat Texas in close game
Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt desperately wants to pick Texas to beat Alabama on Saturday, but he just can’t ignore the overwhelming statistical evidence that it probably won’t happen.
On this week’s edition of the Joel Klatt Show, he admitted that it “sounds crazy,” but he believes that Texas “has the team that should win this game.” Personnel-wise, he loves the Longhorns and how they matchup with the Tide.
“Ewers, this is all over him. Like if if they can put this game on the arm of Jalen Milroe, they’ll be in a great spot. Texas will be,” Klatt said.
So, what’s stopping Klatt from jumping aboard the Texas bandwagon and picking them to do the impossible in Tuscaloosa? Well, just that. Looking at the numbers, it is nearly impossible for college football teams to beat top five programs on the road.
“Do you guys know how difficult it is to beat a top five team on the road in their building? It’s almost impossible,” says Klatt, who came prepared with plenty of figures to back that notion up.
“Here’s some numbers. First of all, Alabama has won their last 52 home games when they didn’t have to face Joe Burrow. So if you throw Burrow in there, it’s 52-1. Joe Burrow is one of the best players on the planet, okay. Ask everybody in the NFL. And he had the greatest single quarterback season I’ve ever seen. That’s the only home game that team has lost in the last 53 games. That’s staggering.”
Klatt then posed the question: “Is Ewers as good as Joe Burrow? I’m not sure.” Of course, Ewers doesn’t need to be Burrow because he’s not going against a superstar Alabama QB like they’ve had in recent years.
“Now, he’s not going against Tua Tagovailoa, he’s not going against Jalen Hurts, he’s not going against Mac Jones, he’s not going against Bryce Young, alright,” Klatt said. “So this is a little bit different Alabama team. But 53 games and only one loss is staggering.”
Klatt then noted that top five teams are 24-3 at home against top-15 teams in college football since 2019. With that figure, plus the 52-1 ‘Bama record at home, he just can’t get there with picking the Longhorns to come out on top.
“That’s where we’re at,” he continued. “I want to pick Texas. You don’t overcome that. I think that the line is too much. I think Bama wins a close one, maybe by three.”