Joel Klatt: Texas must ‘survive’ first quarter vs. Ohio State to win

As one-half of FOX Sports’ lead broadcast crew, Joel Klatt has been on hand for several of Ohio State‘s biggest games this season.

Given that wealth of experience, Klatt has some sage advice for the fifth-seeded Texas Longhorns ahead of their College Football Playoff national semifinal against No. 8 seeded Ohio State in Friday night’s Cotton Bowl from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas: Survive the first quarter.

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“I believe this game will be almost – almost – won and lost in the first quarter. In that, I believe Ohio State has the ability and mindset right now to go turn this into exactly what happened to Tennessee and Oregon. So, the No. 1 job Texas has in this one, among other jobs, but No. 1, you’ve got to survive the first quarter,” Klatt said Tuesday on the latest episode of The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast. “You have to survive what is inevitably going to be an offensive onslaught early of aggressive play-calling from the best offense in the country. They’ve got to survive. Texas has built big leads over the last two games in the Playoffs. Ohio State has as well. Texas, eh, after the big leads, didn’t play as well. Ohio State cruised to victory in both of those games.”

Despite backing into the CFP after losing a fourth-straight game to rival Michigan, the Buckeyes (12-2) famously opened up a commanding 21-0 advantage in the first quarter of their 42-17 drubbing of the Volunteers in their opening round Playoff game in Columbus. Nearly two weeks later, Ohio State did it again against No. 1 Oregon, building a 14-0 lead in the first quarter before pulling ahead 34-0 with under 3 minutes left in the first half of a 41-21 win in the Rose Bowl CFP quarterfinal.

“Texas has to survive the first quarter. Ohio State jumped out 21-0 on Tennessee then 34-0 on Oregon. Those are the leads in the first two playoff games. If that’s the case, it’s a wrap,” Klatt continued. “Both of those games were a wrap. Tennessee was not coming back from a 21-point deficit. Oregon was not coming back from a 34-point deficit. That is not happening, in particular against that Ohio State defense. So, survive the first quarter, that’s No. 1 (for Texas).”

Given their CFP dominance, the Buckeyes are currently a 5.5-point favorite over the Longhorns, according to FanDuel, which also has OSU an overwhelming national championship favorite at -140.

Joel Klatt: Cotton Bowl location keeping line ‘artificially low’

Klatt believes the betting line is so low because the Longhorns are playing in the state of Texas.

“This team is playing the best football in the country. Steve Sarkisian is absolutely right,” Klatt said of the Buckeyes on The Joel Klatt Show. “Ohio State’s favored by 5.5 in a game that’s going to be played right in the heart of Texas, which that should show everything, because let’s be honest – I feel like the line should be more. I think the idea that this is played in Dallas is keeping the line artificially low.”

Klatt believes the spread is too low for the way the Buckeyes have played as of late.

“I don’t look at lines right away. I always think of just like final scores. I look at the game, and then I look at the line and that kind of informs who I pick against the spread,” Klatt said. “And in this game, I can just tell you, I’m going to pick Ohio State, and I am absolutely going to take them to cover.”

Matt Connolly contributed to this report.