Joel Klatt updates College Football Playoff bracket projection

With the calendar turning to November tomorrow, Joel Klatt released another update to his bracket for the College Football Playoff.

During the episode of his show this morning, Klatt picked the games for this weekend while also providing a new projection for the CFP. With it came plenty of excitement as he couldn’t wait for some of the matchups that his prediction would set up in the playoff, especially in the opening round of on-campus games.

“There is no way in the world that you can look at this college football season, look at these projections and think to yourself, ‘Man, I’m so pissed that we expanded the playoff!'” Klatt mocked. “It’s, like – that’s not a thing. That’s absolutely not a thing.”

Among the berths were the top-four seeds who would be getting byes with Oregon from the Big Ten, Georgia in the SEC, Clemson out of the ACC, and then BYU in the Big 12. From there, the SEC got three more berths, the Big Ten earned two, and the ACC received one along with one independent before that final seed out of the Group of Five.

Here’s how Klatt is projecting the College Football Playoff to look before this weekend’s kickoff to open the final month of the regular season:

1. Oregon Ducks

The Oregon Ducks became the No. 1 seed for Klatt coming out of October. That comes with improvement as they’ve entered conference play in the Big Ten, specifically with their win over Ohio State. Another win over the Buckeyes in Indianapolis would then complete what he has as an undefeated season for them in Eugene.

“I’ve got No. 1 Oregon,” said Klatt. “They would still be undefeated and they would still be No. 1.”

2. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia would be at No. 2 then after winning the remainder of their games, including another victory over Texas in the SEC Championship. That one loss, though, would be what would separate the ‘Dawgs and the Ducks for Klatt.

“Two would be Georgia with the one loss to Alabama but then coming back and beating Texas twice,” Klatt explained. “The only reason they wouldn’t be No. 1 is that Oregon would be undefeated.”

3. Clemson Tigers

Klatt has been high on Clemson, who has won six straight by an average margin of almost four scores, for some time now as the best team in the Atlantic Coast Conference to him. That continued with him having the Tigers as their conference champion out of the ACC.

“Clemson is still my ACC Champ. That’s going to remain the same,” said Klatt. “I’ve got them at No. 3.”

4. BYU Cougars

For the final bye, Klatt had BYU out of the Big 12. That comes with the Cougars reaching the point where they seem destined for a berth somehow as they’ve remained undefeated at 8-0.

“I’m just starting to really believe in this BYU team. This BYU team smells and feels a lot like two years ago with the TCU team. A similar rugged and competitive style quarterback, a veteran defense, some transfers in the right areas. Winning games in all sorts of fashions, whether it’s getting turnovers, winning with special teams, winning with offense, winning with defense. They’ve done it every single different way,” Klatt said. “I just think BYU is somewhat of a team of destiny.”

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State would be the first at-large team at No. 5 for Klatt. With that, the Buckeyes would have lost both matchups to Oregon both in the regular season and in the Big Ten Championship. Still, with those being their two losses and with what he still has them doing next month, it’d be enough for him to make them as his fifth seed.

“If Ohio State can get to that game against Oregon and their only two losses would be to Oregon? I think they would be the five seed,” said Klatt. “Remember, that would mean that they would go on the road and win against Penn State. That would mean that they would host Indiana and get that win. So, with those marquee wins and then just, like, let’s say a close loss in a neutral against Oregon, I think they would get the five seed.

6. Texas Longhorns

Similarly, Texas would be right after at No. 6 with them in a similar scenario with Georgia as Ohio State would be in with Oregon. However, with the Buckeyes having what he expects will be closer losses and a better overall resumé from the regular season, Klatt has the Longhorns just behind them at six.

“Texas would get the six seed in a loss in the SEC Championship. They just wouldn’t have those monster-style games like Penn State on the road. Now, maybe A&M is that style but, remember, I’ve got A&M losing to South Carolina, which loses some of the luster of that win if Texas were able to beat A&M to end the season,” Klatt explained. “That’s where I landed on the five and six matchup. Those could be flipped, certainly.

7. Penn State Nittany Lions

Regardless of if they win or lose to Ohio State or whether or not make the Big Ten Championship, Klatt has Penn State in the playoff. In this scenario, that’d mean a loss to the Buckeyes this weekend before winning out to still make the bracket for the first time.

“I think Penn State is likely to be 11-1 and they’re going to be No. 7 in my bracket,” Klatt said. “Again, even if they were to lose this weekend and they were to win out, I think Penn State at 11-1, with what they have done, the way that they play, and what they’ve done over the last few years? I think they would get that seven seed.”

8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame slots in at No. 8 as they’ve now won six straight and have their chance to finish at 11-1 too. However, when deciding between the Fighting Irish and the Nittany Lions, Klatt took their lone loss to Northern Illinois into account in comparison to Penn State who he has only losing to Ohio State.

“Then Notre Dame would get the eight seed. So, Notre Dame as an 11-1 team – only loss, I get it, to Northern Illinois,” said Klatt. “Remember, you know, this is part of the reason why Penn State would be seven and Notre Dame would be eight is that the losses would just be so dramatically different – both at home, one to Northern Illinois, the other to Ohio State. In theory, that’s an easy pick of Penn State over Notre Dame.”

9. Tennessee Volunteers

The next two are simple for Klatt with selections out of the SEC. Tennessee is his No. 9 seed at 10-2 with the only difference between them in ninth and tenth being what they did two weekends ago on The Third Saturday of October.

“I go No. 9 Tennessee. I’ve got Tennessee at nine,” said Klatt. “The reason that they’re at nine is because I’ve got ‘Bama at 10 and they would have the win over ‘Bama.”

10. Alabama Crimson Tide

With that, Alabama would be a spot behind the Volunteers at No. 10. Even so, as one of the final three teams for two spots, they’d win an argument amongst the other two for Klatt with their win over Georgia and what he predicts will be a win over LSU in Death Valley next weekend.

“So, Tennessee at nine, ‘Bama at 10. That’s how you land there,” said Klatt. “Remember, ‘Bama has the win over Georgia. In this case, I would have them winning at night at LSU. So they’re in. They’re absolutely in. You could claim that they would be a bit of a bubble team right there and they might be but, at this point, you’re coming down to kind of like 10, 11, 12. You’re debating between a lot of different teams.

11. Miami Hurricanes

The ‘U would then get the final at-large spot in the playoff after losing in the ACC Championship. Still, at 12, Klatt isn’t going to hold it against the Hurricanes for having earned a spot in their conference title but losing their first game of the season, including it being a loss to a team that he has among the four getting byes

“I see Miami as a 12-1, I see Indiana as an 11-1. At that point, Indiana just does not have the marquee win. Face it, Miami really doesn’t either but they do have the higher-end talent, which, unfortunately, is going to play into this,” Klatt explained. “One of the things that I’ve argued in the past is that you should not be penalized, punished for making it to your conference championship game and losing it. This would be punishing Miami if they were to be left out just because they got to a conference championship game and lost…I think Miami would get the eleven spot.”

12. Boise State Broncos

Finally, Boise State would be the highest-ranked conference champion out of the Group of Five. This comes after their win last week over UNLV to maintain their standing as a favorite out of the Mountain West. Include Navy’s loss with the Broncos still ahead of the Midshipmen along with Army, Tulane, and Memphis and it’d be them being the twelfth seed in the CFP for Klatt.

“Boise State would get the 12 spot,” said Klatt.

First Team Out: Indiana Hoosiers

Even with a record at 11-1 with the only loss being at Ohio State, Indiana would be the team left out according to Klatt. To him, they just won’t have a massive-enough win on their resumé to make the field unless they come out of Columbus with a victory.

“I’m just telling you right now, folks. Indiana is facing a very narrow road to the playoff,” said Klatt. “In fact, if you look at Indiana, let’s just say they finish at 11-1. It would be far better for Indiana to be an 11-1 team with an Ohio State win and a loss to a lesser team rather than winning all the games that they would be favored in and losing to Ohio State. At least then they could have a feather in their cap of a great win. I do believe that Indiana’s only path to the playoff, other than getting themselves into the Big Ten Championship, is beating Ohio State. I believe that they have to win in The Shoe against Ohio State.”