Kansas vs. Iowa State odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Jayhawks, Cyclones

No. 7 Kansas travels up north for an afternoon Big 12 Conference matchup against No. 24 Iowa State in Ames on Saturday. By all accounts — the top-10 ranked Jayhawks are underdogs on the road.

The lines may look surprising on paper, but both of Kansas’ conference losses this year have come on the road. Heading into hostile territory against a Cyclone team that has won for of its last five games, including a home win against Houston, the Jayhawks may have their work cut out for them on Saturday.

Both Kansas and Iowa State are tied for second place in the Big 12 Conference with dueling 4-2 records. One will move ahead of the other by the time the final buzzer sounds.

Odds for Kansas vs. Iowa State

Coming into the game, Iowa State is a 4.5-point favorite over Kansas, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Cyclones are currently listed at -205 for the moneyline as of Saturday morning, while the Jayhawks are sitting at +168. 

The point total for the game is set at 141.5 points. Iowa State comes into the game averaging 68.2 points per game, which ranked No. 12 out of 14 in the conference. Meanwhile. Kansas averages 78.3 — tops in the Big 12 heading into Saturday.

Final score predictions for Kansas vs. Iowa State

BPI Predicted winner: Iowa State
BPI Predicted point differential: 7.8
BPI Win probability (for Iowa State): 76.5 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 85.8

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 7.8 points in Iowa State’s favor. It also gives the Cyclones a 79.7 percent chance to win the game over the Bulldogs at home.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 85.8, which ranks outside seventh in quality scores predicted for the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Iowa State 75, Kansas 70
KenPom Win probability (for Iowa State): 66 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For Saturday’s game between Iowa State and Kansas, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas’ consensus, projecting the Jayhawks to lose by roughly a five points.

How to watch Kansas vs. Iowa State

Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: James H. Hilton Coliseum — Ames, Iowa

The opening tip between the Cycles and Jayhawks is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. ET and will air live on CBS. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which has an option for a free trial.