Ken Pomeroy reveals why 2024-25 SEC dominance could end in NCAA Tournament collapse

Renowned college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy believes the Southeastern Conference’s historic dominance this season could end in NCAA Tournament disaster. And he’s got the numbers to back it up.

In making this assessment, Pomeroy — the creator of the famous KenPom.com statistical archive that college basketball fans, media and teams alike cite like their personal bible — pointed to the past NCAA Tournament results of previous historically-dominant leagues in a blog post on his personal Substack with the title “Why hasn’t anyone said ‘the SEC is overrated’?”

But don’t mistake Pomeroy’s point for SEC criticism.

Pomeroy’s own analytics has 15 SEC teams currently ranked within his Top 70 teams — including four (Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Alabama) ranked in the Top 6. In fact, the SEC appears destined to once again receive double-digit bids into the 2025 NCAA Tournament. ESPN’s own bracketologist Joe Lunardi currently has the SEC leading the country with 12 teams making the 68-team field.

Instead, just based on the SEC’s non-conference success during the 2024-25 season, Pomeroy acknowledged “the SEC has been one of the best leagues of the internet era, and therefore, possibly ever,” citing the SEC’s .889 non-conference winning percentage (185-23 record). The SEC’s 18-point margin of victory in non-conference play ranks second all-time behind the 1996-97 ACC, which posted a modern era-record 18.2 victory margin after going 90-14 in non-conference play.

But it’s in those season-to-season comparisons where Pomeroy finds reason for concern.

The ACC had six teams make the 1997 NCAA Tournament, with only two making it out of the first weekend of games as No. 1 seeded North Carolina lost in the Final Four and fourth-seeded Clemson lost in the Sweet Sixteen that season.

But more recently, last season’s Big 12 made its own case for conference supremacy after going 145-34 (.810 win percentage) in non-conference play with a 16.3 margin-of-victory for third all-time. But after advancing eight teams to the NCAA Tournament, the Big 12 infamously fell flat with only No. 1 seeded Houston and No. 2 seeded Iowa State advancing beyond the first weekend before losing in the Sweet Sixteen last season.

“One takeaway is that it’s not unusual for historically great conferences to fail in the tournament. So maybe it’s time to sell the SEC,” Pomeroy wrote. “Before Greg Sankey throws a fit, it’s important to note I’m not disputing the SEC’s conference supremacy this season. Just that it’s likely the SEC’s tournament performance will not be entirely consistent with being the best conference of all-time.”

Pomeroy explained his assessment by first citing two non-data points. First, he acknowleded the reality that any league that generally exceeds expectations in November and December is bound to show signs of regression once league play begins. Secondly, Pomeroy cited the obvious talent discrepency between certain leagues, which obviously adds to the wear-and-tear on teams in the stronger leagues.

Pomeroy then punched the numbers, comparing the pre-conference rating of every power league dating back to 1997 and plotted it against their pre- and post-tournament ratings, with a clear downward trend developing.

“Among power conferences, the better the league, the more likely their rating will drop during the tournament,” Pomeroy wrote. “I’ve added the linear trend, but it’s not certain that the trend is linear. The very best conferences have underperformed even more than the linear trend would indicate.”

Pomeroy did acknowledge, given no team is playing out-of-conference games after January 1, it’s difficult to accurately assess how entire leagues will matchup in postseason play after three months of intraconference games. But if history is any indication, the SEC may be in for heartache in March Madness.