Kentucky vs. Florida point spread: Picking Wildcats vs. Gators

Kentucky is looking to secure its third consecutive victory over Florida at home this weekend, while the Gators are trying to avoid facing the same streak that hasn’t been handed to the university in over 70 years.

Both teams figure to be in the mix for the SEC East’s No. 2 spot behind Georgia, and Week 5’s matchup will be very telling on who could be the biggest threat to the Bulldogs this season. Still, Kentucky heads into the matchup as a 1.5-point betting favorite at home.

AP’s Ralph Russo joined On3’s Andy Staples to discuss what he’s seen out of the Wildcats in particular, and how they’ve peaked his interest despite playing one of the easiest schedules out of any SEC team to this point

“I’m wondering if Kentucky is similar to Michigan. Hear me out,” Russo told Staples. “They haven’t really played anybody, they’re playing at an incredibly slow place. Go look at Kentucky’s play per game — they’re barely averaging 60 plays per game. The had one game against Eastern Kentucky where you’re likely, ‘Wait, what’s going on here?’ But realistically, how much have either of us watched Kentucky this year? They’ve been so far under the radar.”

The 28-17 EKU scare saw Kentucky’s offense fail to get the engine going. EKU punched UK in the mouth out of the gates, scored on the opening drive of the game before keeping the game knotted at seven at halftime.

Kentucky eventually outscored the Colonels 21-10 in the second half to stave off their in-state opponents and avoid any bid at an upset in the process. Still, offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s offense has played overall uninspired for the first quarter of the season. Whether that has been predicated by the Wildcats’ strength of schedule out of the gates remains to be seen.

“What I’ve seen out of Kentucky is that they run very few plays, so clearly they’re trying to play the game at a certain pace,” Russo said. “And I’m just looking at numbers here — they’re averaging the third-best in yards per play in the SEC. They’re gaining yards. Their playmakers look good. I’m seeing some good things here, but Devin Leary has five interceptions. What’s going on there?

“I don’t know whether Kentucky is starting off slow, or they’re deciding to play at a slow pace in these guys where Kentucky knows they can win. We don’t know about Kentucky, we will learn a lot about them. My guess to what we will learn about them is that they’re pretty good.”

On the flip side, Florida also have a new identity under center with transfer QB Graham Mertz, and after the season started out with a 24-11 loss against Utah, Florida has bounced back with three-straight victories over McNeese State, Tennessee and Charlotte, and has outscored their opponents by 70 points (100-30) over that span.

The biggest factor that Staples is factoring into his ultimate decision is that center Kingsley Eguakun will be suiting up against the Wildcats. He’s played in one game this season, which came against Tennessee — the Gators’ most impressive overall team performance of their season.

Because of that alone, Staples is taking Florida to cover. Russo has Kentucky winning a close, low-scoring affair inside Kroger Field.

Kickoff between Kentucky and Florida is set for Noon ET with ESPN carrying the national broadcast. The over/under total is set at 46.5 as the Gators look to attempt to cover the 1.5-point spread.