Kentucky vs. Louisville odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Wildcats, Cardinals

One of college basketball’s best rivalries tips off on Thursday night as the Kentucky Wildcats will travel just 79 miles to take on the Louisville Cardinals in the KFC Yum! Center.

The No. 9 ranked Wildcats lead the all-time series between the two teams 38–17, winning four of the last five matchups under head coach John Calipari. Kentucky has had a strong start to the season, most recently defeating a ranked North Carolina squad in the CBS Sports Classic to secure their eighth win of the season.

Louisville on the other hand has lost three of their last four games, with reports circulating about potentially going separate ways with head coach Kenny Payne.

Odds for Kentucky vs. Louisville

Entering this matchup, Kentucky is a 14.5-point favorite over Louisville according to FanDuel. The Wildcats are also listed at -1250 odds for the money line, with the Cardinals sitting at +740 if you wanted to bet Louisville outright to win.

The betting line for the point total in this matchup sits at 155.5. Kentucky will likely hold up their end of the scoring bargain, as they’re one of six teams in the nation averaging 90 or more points per game at the moment. But Louisville hasn’t been as fortunate, averaging 74.5 points per contest so far this season.

Final score predictions for Kentucky vs. Louisville

BPI Predicted winner: Kentucky
BPI Predicted point differential: 13.3
BPI Win probability (for Kentucky): 86.9 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 58.1

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success, and just like Vegas, it predicts that the Wildcats will come out on top. The model projects that Kentucky has a 86.9% chance of leaving Louisville with a victory, predicting a win margin around 13 points.

ESPN also gave the game a 58.1 matchup quality score, tabbing the game as the 18th-best matchup on Thursday’s slate of college basketball action.

KenPom Predicted final score: Kentucky 86, Louisville 73
KenPom Win probability (for Kentucky): 88 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball, designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account.

KenPom aligns with the betting odds and ESPN’s BPI in this matchup, giving the Wildcats an 88% chance to defeat Louisville while also predicting a 13-point margin of victory for Calipari’s squad.

How to watch Kentucky vs. Louisville

Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Louisville (KY)

Louisville is the home team in this year’s matchup, which is significant in this rivalry as all three of the Cardinals’ latest victories against the Wildcats have come at home in KFC Yum! Center.

Cardinals forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield has led Louisville in scoring and rebounding in their last two matchups, posting back-to-back double-double performances with 20 points in each of the team’s last two games along with 11 and 12 rebounds on Sunday and Wednesday.

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The Wildcats on the other hand have seen significant contributions from their freshman class this season. Freshmen Robert Dillingham, Aaron Bradshaw, Reed Sheppard, and DJ Wagner have led Kentucky in scoring in seven of their 10 games as they’ve started the season strong with an 8-2 record.