Key matchups in Saturday showdowns between USC-Michigan, Utah-Oklahoma State, Tennessee-Oklahoma

Week 4 features a delightful slate of games as some teams are rounding out their non-conference slates, while others open league play with some ranked-on-ranked action. 

No. 24 Illinois goes to No. 22 Nebraska on Friday night. NC State is still licking its wounds from a beatdown at the hands of Tennessee two weeks ago, and now must face Clemson in Death Valley. 

Elsewhere, we get the What-Will-We-Learn-About-These-Teams featuring Rutgers at Virginia Tech, Kansas at West Virginia and TCU at SMU. 

Can South Florida put a scare in No. 8 Miami? Which sad, sorry, Sunshine State team will get off the mat Saturday: Florida State (vs. Cal) or Florida (at Mississippi State)?

But in analyzing the Week 4 slate, three games jump out as the most interesting, so with that, here’s a key matchup to watch in Top 25 affairs in the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. 

No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State

Can the Cowboys’ ground game find some firepower?

First things first, we think Utes quarterback Cam Rising is going to play, but that is no certainty with the way Kyle Whittingham has handled injuries in recent years. 

Rising is dealing with a laceration on his throwing hand, causing him to miss last week’s game against Utah State. If freshman Isaac Wilson is forced into a second-straight start, then the tenor of this game shifts dramatically — even in-spite of Oklahoma State’s defense being outright terrible (last in the Big 12). 

But if Rising is available and good to go, the question will be can the Cowboys muster enough offense against a Utah defense allowing just 4.2 yards per play?

The Cowboys are 3-0 and averaging just over 42.0 points per game, but Mike Gundy’s team is slogging through the mud offensively to start the 2024 season — particularly when it comes to running the football. Preseason Heisman hopeful Ollie Gordon has remained a workhorse tailback — his 62 carries are the third-most nationally. 

Unfortunately, his 2023 production has been M.I.A. Gordon is averaging merely 3.4 yards per carry. He has one run all season over 20 yards. 

Chalked with experienced sixth and seventh-year seniors, Oklahoma State returned the most veteran offensive line in the country, but the unit — which was just so-so in 2023 — has been awful at opening up running lanes for Gordon so far in 2024. 

The Pokes rank 127th nationally un rushing success rate (30%), and they have a negative EPA/play. Gordon is getting met at the LOS or in the backfield on the majority of his runs. 

Maybe Oklahoma State will opt to try to beat Utah with its passing game. The Cowboys do have one of the better well-rounded receiving corps in the Big 12, and the Utes are down a couple starters in the secondary (Karene Reid and Kenan Johnson).

But so far this season, Morgan Scalley’s unit has been better against the pass than the run. 

If Oklahoma State is going to continue to give Gordon a similar workload (21 carries per game), it has to find a way to become both more efficient and explosive. 

They’re slight underdogs at home (+3), and it’s hard to see them pulling off a key upset if Gordon is held in check for the fourth-straight game.

No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan 

Will Miller Moss, USC’s OL handle Michigan’s defense?

The preseason lookahead line on this game was Michigan -10.5, but after three weeks of the 2024 season, USC is now favored by 6-points.

That’s quite the dramatic swing!

The Trojans looked impressive in the upset over LSU, and then they pulverized a bad Utah State team before getting two weeks to prepare for their first Big Ten game. 

Meanwhile, Michigan has gone through an awkward game of quarterback musical chairs, which Sherrone Moore admitted was a mistake this week when he announced Alex Orji would be the full-time starter moving forward. 

I’ve written plenty about Michigan’s offense and quarterback situation, so I’m much more curious about the QB1 and offense for the road team. 

Dating back to last season’s bowl game, Miller Moss has been nails in three-career starts. He was terrific against the Tigers in the season-opener, and had a yeoman’s day against Utah State. On the season, the veteran is completing 73% of his passes at 9.2 yards per attempt. He’s yet to turn the ball over, either. 

Only now Moss will make his first-career road start in the Big House. 

Two weeks ago, Quinn Ewers had no issue carving up the Wolverines’ top-flight defense. But Ewers has also won at Alabama, and is protected by one of the best OLs in the country — one that handled Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant and Josiah Stewart.  

Can Moss & Co., find similar success at Michigan? Will this simply be a lesser version of the Texas game?

USC’s offensive line held up well enough against LSU, but the Trojans still allowed a pair of sacks and eight tackles for loss. Moss has been unflappable under pressure, but how will he fare against a much more talented front?

The line on this game has flipped with good reason — but for USC to make sure it wins its Big Ten debut, it needs its first-year starter to play well, be protected and take care of the football. 

No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma

Can the Sooners block the Vols?

Oklahoma’s SEC debut should be a spectacular spectacle. A night game in Norman ripe with narrative and star-power. 

Josh Heupel makes his return to his alma mater 10 years to the season he was fired as Bob Stoops’ offensive coordinator — paving the way for the Lincoln Riley show. Nico Iamaleava and Jackson Arnold are two former 5-star quarterbacks who are now running the show for their respective teams in Year 2. Brent Venables is looking to record his first signature win at home — and an upset over these testy Tennessee Vols (-7.5 favorites) would certainly qualify. 

The matchup to watch in this game is rather basic: Football is about blocking and tackling, and one team has proven they can do that and another is very iffy about the former. 

Oklahoma came into the 2024 season with offensive line concerns after having to replace all five starters off last season, and what was a preseason alert has become a five-alarm fire. 

The Sooners’ transfer-heavy offensive line has underwhelmed, and now a shorthanded group (center Branson Hickman is questionable against Tennessee, while left guard Geirean Hatchett is out for the season) must face off against one of the premier defensive lines in the country. 

The Vols roll eight-deep up front, and have a tenacious collection of defensive tackles and edge rushers. James Pearce gets all the attention, but the potential Top 5 pick doesn’t even have a sack this season (he does lead the team with six pressures). 

I’ve dubbed these Vols an avalanche because they’re just big ‘ole rocks barreling at you downhill. They don’t have to blitz much at all. 

With Pearce, plus Omari Thomas, Bryson Eason, Omarr Norman-Lott and Tyre West, who are all quality SEC defensive linemen, get pressure just rushing four. 

This group haunted Grayson McCall and NC State and has lived in opponents’ backfield all season (Vols have 20 tackles for loss) — which makes this a nightmarish matchup for the Sooners right now. 

Oklahoma’s offense has been extremely clunky through three games. 

The Sooners are down some key receivers, but Arnold is their leading rusher (not by design!), they can’t sustain drives, convert third downs or run the football on designed run due to piss-poor offensive line play. 

How bad has it been?

Oklahoma ranks…

122nd nationally in three-and-outs

110th nationally in third downs

117th nationally in sacks allowed (9.0)

116th nationally in offensive success rate (36.5%)

With Billy Bowman, Danny Stutsman and a group of ballhawks (OU has 10 takeaways this year, eight-most nationally), Venables has the defense to at least confuse and frustrate Iamleava in his first-career road start. 

But only so much. 

Dylan Sampson is going to is going to get his yards, and Heupel is going to dial up some shot plays. For the Sooners to have any hopes of engineering an upset, they have to get more from their offensive line. They have to extend drives (especially now that they’re playing at a higher tempo going up against Tennessee’s tempo). They must convert in the red zone. 

That’s a lot that must go right for Oklahoma. Can it?