Kirk Herbstreit, ESPN panel pick between Georgia, Michigan as most likely to win national title

The College Football Playoff rankings will officially be unveiled on a weekly basis beginning next week, and ESPN’s crew is getting a head start on breaking down some of the key topics of interest.

On Tuesday night they tackled who should be regarded as the nation’s most likely team to win the national title, between Georgia and Michigan.

Michigan was the overwhelming favorite.

“I would say Michigan as we sit here. Now we’re looking at a team that hasn’t been challenged the way they will be against Penn State, of course, and against Ohio State at the end of the year,” ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit said. “But up to this point they’ve been the most consistent team offense, defense, special teams. Now they’ve got to block out the distractions about everything going on off the field, and they seem so far to be OK based on what we saw and the way they played against Michigan State. Got to give them credit.

“The big thing is they’ve got a quarterback that, you’ve always got to have that guy and know what you’re going to get. This is a team that came close last year. The bulk of that team came back this year. You knew going in that they had a shot to get back, and now based on what we’ve seen at the halfway point it’s hard to deny them. So between those two teams as we sit there right now for me, I think Michigan has the best shot.”

Fellow ESPN analyst Greg McElroy also took Michigan, though for slightly different reasons than Herbstreit.

McElroy’s been flat-out impressed by Michigan’s dominance.

“I lean Michigan and it’s not necessarily about who they’ve played, but how they’ve played and the standard that they’re currently playing to,” McElroy said. “They’ve outscored their opponents 325-47. It’s the first team in 30 years to be that dominant in the first eight games of the season. And it’s amazing because every time you watch them it’s as if somebody else emerges that’s a legitimate difference-maker. The receivers all season long have been amazing. The run game has been terrific. But now just last week in comes tight ends, Colston Loveland and AJ Barner, 12 receptions for 178 and three touchdowns was the performance against Sparty.

“And the other thing that’s also different about Michigan this year, guys, is it felt like for a while they had to stay on schedule, they had to be methodical offensively. Now even when they get behind the sticks they have the firepower to overcome some of those difficult down-and-distance situations: third-and-14, third-and-13, third-and-8, second-and-18. They overcame all of those against Sparty, and I think this is a team that will weather the storm and ultimately beat you in a bunch of different ways.”

The third analyst to chime in on the question had the same ultimate takeaway but got there by quite a different route. In fact, it was scheduling that stuck out to Joey Galloway.

“I’m actually going to go with Michigan also, and it has absolutely nothing to do with what has happened up to this point,” Galloway said. “All those things you guys are saying about Michigan I agree with, but at the same time they hadn’t gone against anybody that can stop any of those great things that you’ve said about them.

“But I think it’s Michigan simply because their road is easier to get there. Georgia has Missouri, they still got to go to Tennessee, they have Ole Miss, then they have to go to the SEC Championship Game where they may see Alabama, maybe an LSU. So their road to get there is a little tougher. We don’t know the health of Brock Bowers right now. If Brock Bowers comes back healthy that may change my pick in this question, but right now with an injured Brock Bowers, with a tougher road for Georgia — Michigan has Penn State on the road, which will be a tough test at Penn State, then they have Ohio State in Michigan. So that road is easier because the Big Ten West hasn’t looked great, so getting to the Big Ten Championship Game should be a cakewalk if they get there. So their road is easier, so I’ll take Michigan.”

The only analyst to take Georgia was Booger McFarland.

He delved into his thinking, while admitting he was with the other three analysts in thinking Michigan is the better of the two teams.

So why pick Georgia as the favorite to win the national title?

“I think you guys make a lot of great points about Michigan, and if this were just about Michigan being the better team, I would choose Michigan because defensively, offensively I think they’re the better team,” McFarland said. “You look at JJ McCarthy, the quarterback, what he can do. You look at the defense, their weapons. Everything points toward Michigan.

“But somehow, and I know we’re not supposed to do this, but somehow I just can’t get out of my mind the last couple times we’ve seen this team on a big stage, in a college football Playoff against TCU, Michigan against Georgia. So if we’re trying to win a title, I’ve got to trust a coaching staff. I’ve got to trust your coach in a big game, in a big moment. So I’m going to lean toward Georgia. Even though Michigan has the better team, I feel like I know what I’m going to get out of Kirby Smart and his staff. They know who they are. They know their identity. And it doesn’t matter the magnitude of the game. It doesn’t matter the opponent.

“I feel like I can trust Kirby Smart and Georgia’s staff even more. And Carson Beck is not a slouch. He had one of his best games against Kentucky. I think he’s coming on. That defense is still led by Kirby Smart and we know what they can do. So even though Michigan has the better team, which we’ve all stated, I still would pick Georgia most likely to win the title.”