Last-minute NCAA Tournament bracket advice? History says one of these schools wins title

Trying to win NCAA Tournament bracket pools can be maddening, and it’s even more difficult if you don’t pick the eventual national champion correctly. 

What’s the best way to predict winners? Lean on the highest-rated conferences, the best coaches, the most reliable point guards and the stingiest defenses? Or do you go chalk and stick with No. 1 seeds? Or perhaps choose teams with NBA-caliber talent who returned to campus for an extra year? Don’t dismiss those who choose the meanest mascots – that may be as good a strategy as any.

Spoiler alert: Winning bracket pools is hard.

The good news? You have a few more hours to revise your bracket. Consider this your March Madness cheat sheet. 

DON’T MISS OUT ON THE ON3 BRACKET CHALLENGE

That’s because if you want your decisions rooted in strong historical trends to accurately predict national champions, check this out. Ken Pomeroy’s analytical website – KenPom.com – is an invaluable treasure trove of data for college basketball fans/media/coaches/everybody. Following these trends will lead you to a short list of programs most likely to celebrate long into the night next month in Glendale, Arizona.

This is a four-pronged analytics test that has uncanny accuracy in correctly forecasting the men’s national champion.

A special thanks to Will Warren, a University of Tennessee graduate and self-described statistics-obsessed individual who dove deep into data in a blog post. Warren posted the statistical trends on March 10, 2020, mere days before the COVID-19 pandemic forced the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament.

History tells us who’ll win NCAA Tournament

After I updated the trends to include UConn’s run as a No. 4 seed to the national title last season – the Huskies did in fact meet all of the KenPom historical criteria in 2023 – here’s the deal on who history tells us will win the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

+Nineteen of the past 21 champions (exceptions were UConn in 2014 and Baylor in 2021) entered the tournament ranked in the top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Who fits that criteria this season?

Fourteen teams: Arizona, Auburn, Colorado, Colorado State, Creighton, Duke, Houston, Marquette, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Purdue, Tennessee and UConn.

+There’s more: 10 of the past 11 champions ranked in the top seven in offensive or defensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. Among the teams above, who fits that criteria? This eliminates a lot of teams, leaving us with squads that have compiled a robust body of work, including all four No. 1 seeds.

Six teams: Auburn, Duke, Houston, North Carolina, Purdue and UConn.

+ Now this: 18 of the past 21 champions ranked in the top six in the overall KenPom ratings entering the tournament. Among the six above, who also fits that criteria? Say goodbye to Tobacco Road schools.

Four teams: Auburn, Houston, Purdue, UConn.

+ So we’re left with teams from four different leagues – three No. 1 seeds and Auburn, a dangerous No. 4 seed. But wait, there’s more: The No. 1 team in KenPom’s pre-tournament rankings has won just three times in the last 21 tournaments. Given that trend, let’s cross off UConn. Yes, you read that correctly – no repeat championship run for the formidable Huskies. So, who’s left?

Three teams: Auburn, Houston and Purdue.

Good luck with your picks

Choose who you wish to win the NCAA Tournament. But if it’s not one of the three teams above, you’ll be defying a handful of important historic statistical trends. Amid the dizzying flurry of upsets and madness, history points to Auburn, Houston or Purdue winning the title. Something to keep in mind while filling out — or revising — your bracket before the first round tips off in a couple of hours.

Or you can always go back to the mascot strategy.