Reclassifying Five-Star Plus+ DL Lebbeus Overton in 2022 rankings

Five-star defensive lineman Lebbeus Overton made news on Thursday morning by announcing his intent to reclassify from the 2023 to 2022 class and cutting his list to five schools.

As a result, Overton must be moved into the 2022 rankings – both in the On300 and in the industry-generated On3 Consensus.

Overton now slots in at No. 31 overall and as the No. 5 defensive lineman in the On300. His spot in the On3 Consensus is currently No. 8 as other services still lock in his final 2022 slot. Overton is the eighth Five-Star Plus+ prospect in the 2022 cycle.

Reclassifying to the 2022 cycle means Overton will have to make a college choice in the near future.

On3’s Chad Simmons breaks down his final five schools of Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Texas A&M in this On3+ story. On3’s Jeremy Johnson goes in-depth with Overton about those schools and his plans to enroll in May in this On3+ story.

Texas A&M is currently trending in the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine RPM. Overton would only bolster Texas A&M’s No. 1 class and would be the fourth five-star defensive lineman from the cycle to join the Aggies.

Overton currently has an On3 NIL Valuation of $61,000. The NIL valuation does not act as a tracker of the value of NIL deals an athlete has completed to date. It rather signifies an athlete’s value at a certain moment in time. Overton ranks No. 31 in the High School Football NIL Rankings.

Overton is advanced for his age

Lebbeus Overton burst on the national scene prior to his sophomore season at Alpharetta (Ga.) Milton. He played his freshman season at Bessemer Academy in Alabama prior to his family moving to the Atlanta area.

Overton finished the year at Bessemer Academy with 19 sacks and 18 additional tackles for loss. I was working at 247Sports at the time and spearheaded the initial 2023 rankings that made Overton the then-No. 1 prospect in the cycle.

Overton backed up that lofty status with a breakout sophomore season at Milton. He was disruptive on a snap-to-snap basis while playing in Georgia’s highest classification.

When the dust settled, Overton had racked up 21.5 sacks and 38 tackles for loss in 12 games. The play strength, length, athleticism and effort level looked to be that of a five-star prospect.

Over the past year, Overton has continued to fill out his frame. The most recent official measurements are 6-foot-2.5 and around 270 pounds. He is trending towards more of a defensive line prospect than a true EDGE at this point.

Overton reminds us a bit of former Florida State and current Chicago Bears defensive lineman Mario Edwards, who was a five-star prospect in the 2012 cycle.

He also elicits some memories of former Alabama defensive lineman and current Washington Commander Jonathan Allen – though Overton has begun to fill out a bit earlier than Allen did at the same stage.

Overton missed a chunk of his junior year after breaking two bones in his foot. He worked on a bit of a pitch count and ramped things up late in the playoffs. While his junior season was not as dominant as the sophomore campaign, the talent level and skills are still evident.

Moving forward

Re-ranking football prospects in older cycles is inherently difficult. It requires projecting the perceived trajectory of the prospect’s development.

Football is a highly developmental sport, both from a physical and skill perspective. Prospects develop at different rates, especially as nascent high school players. Evaluations are typically the most accurate when they trend towards being more evidence-based.

A jump in cycles and subsequent skipping of the senior season certainly muddies the waters in that regard. Those factors and unknowns may bring about some variance among differing ranges as prospects jump cycles. Based on what we know about development, it is likely prospects we view as having room for growth and untapped upside will tend to rank higher upon reclassifying.

Overton is not the first high-profile prospect we’ve seen reclassify. Former USC and Georgia quarterback JT Daniels reclassified to enroll at USC back in 2018. Quinn Ewers skipped his senior season to enroll at Ohio State and has since transferred to Texas. Sonny Styles, who like Overton was a five-star in the 2023 cycle, reclassified and signed with Ohio State in December.

That is to say that Overton is very likely not the last five-star underclassman to make the jump.