Lincoln Riley controls college football's biggest quarterback dominoes
There was a seismic development in college football on Sunday. On3’s Matt Zenitz breaking the news that Lincoln Riley will leave Oklahoma to become the new head coach at USC.
One of the sport’s best coaches leaving one top program for another blue blood naturally creates a ripple effect across the national landscape. That includes the fates of some of the most talented young quarterbacks in college football, namely Oklahoma true freshman Caleb Williams and USC true freshman Jaxson Dart.
Lincoln Riley has developed a reputation as the top quarterback developer in college football during his tenure at Oklahoma. Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray each won the Heisman Trophy and were the top pick in the NFL Draft under his tutelage. The 38-year-old coach also helped develop Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts into a Heisman finalist and second round pick. Mayfield, Murray and Hurts are all currently starting in the NFL.
As a result of his track record with signal callers, Riley has the cache to pick his quarterbacks, rather than vice versa. That leads us to Caleb Williams and Jaxson Dart.
Williams, Dart are two top talents
Caleb Williams (No. 1) and Jaxson Dart (No. 6) were both five-stars and top ten prospects in On3’s rankings for the 2021 cycle.
Caleb Williams took over as Riley’s starting quarterback at Oklahoma in the middle of the Sooners’ dramatic come-from-behind win over Texas in October. Hailing from Gonzaga Prep in Washington D.C., Williams turned in one of the better seasons we’ve seen from a true freshman signal caller. While it came with some ups and downs, Williams showed considerable talent as a passer and run threat with some dominant moments. Simply put, he looked the part of a former No. 1 overall prospect.
Jaxson Dart‘s path to being a five-star quarterback differed greatly from Williams. He entered his senior season as a three-star prospect with few offers. Dart had a revelatory final season of high school football, turning in one of the better years we’ve seen in several cycles. He accounted for 5,886 total yards and 67 touchdowns to just four interceptions in leading Draper (Utah) Corner Canyon to a state title.
Dart has started a handful of games for the Trojans this fall. He led the Trojans to their best offensive showing of the season in his first start, passing for 391 yards and four touchdowns in a 45-14 win at Washington State in week three. He returned to action after missing a few weeks with a knee injury and has started the last two games, including Saturday’s close loss to BYU.
Overall, Dart has showed the talent that had him as a five-star for On3. Under normal circumstances, he would be considered a foundational piece for the new coaching staff at USC.
Potential ripple effects
While it’s too early to definitively say, it’s logical to assume that Riley’s hire at USC could put one, if not both of Williams and Dart on the move.
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We’ve operated under the assumption that Ohio State’s two former five-star backups Kyle McCord and Quinn Ewers could be the top portal prizes should they elect to transfer after playing behind CJ Stroud this fall. While McCord and Ewers have considerable talent, neither has shown more than Williams or Dart on a college football field to date.
We already know Caleb Williams can thrive in Lincoln Riley’s scheme. Jaxson Dart‘s skill set seems to indicate he would, as well. While he doesn’t have quite the high-end athleticism of Williams, Dart is a more nuanced passer and still capable of presenting a run threat. The latter ran for nearly 1,200 yards as a high school senior.
Williams and Dart aren’t the only five-star quarterbacks in Riley’s orbit.
Former Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler‘s status remains in flux. Riley also has a commitment from 2023 five-star Malachi Nelson, the No. 3 overall prospect in the On3 Consensus. Of all the scenarios, Nelson following Riley to USC seems the most likely. The Five-Star Plus+ prospect is a native of the area, playing at Los Alamitos High. Nelson is also Riley’s lone quarterback offer in the 2023 cycle.
Many unknowns remain
Again, there’s still a lot to sort out. This news is just a few hours old. Oklahoma has to make a hire to replace Riley. ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter tweeted on Sunday afternoon that the Sooners are targeting Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury. While seemingly unlikely, that hire would certainly shake things up.
Of course, the biggest unknown is simply what Lincoln Riley wants to do with his immediate quarterback situation at USC.
Even after the coaching dust settles, some huge quarterback dominoes remain in play, with the potential of shifting power dynamics within the sport over the next few seasons.