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Loser of Alabama-LSU game 'leaves town' out of College Football Playoff race

Barkley-Truaxby:Barkley Truax11/03/24

BarkleyTruax

Alabama QB Jalen Milroe
(Gary Cosby Jr. / USA TODAY Sports)

The race for the College Football Playoff is drawing closer to the finish line, and the pool of potential programs vying for at-large bids into the bracket is growing smaller by the week.

Week 11’s headlining matchup — Alabama at LSU — will decide who’s in and who’s out between the two rivals, according to SEC analyst Paul Finebaum. The winner’s hopes stay alive, while the loser will be be forced out of the playoff picture.

“The loser of this game says, goodbye, adios to the season, not in a literal sense, but in terms of the CFP,” Finebaum said on SportsCenter on Sunday morning. “The loser will have three losses, and there’s just no way to get back in. There won’t be an SEC Championship game, and there really won’t be any hope. There are just too many schools competing for those at-large bids, and it’s hard to imagine Alabama being out that early.

“It hasn’t happened very often, but that game is high stakes. Loser leaves town.”

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Even though Alabama boasts one of the most impressive wins of the season — a 41-34 victory over Georgia at home — they’ve lost to both Vanderbilt and Tennessee already. While both teams are ranked, a third loss overall would push the Crimson Tide to the back half of the rankings, and likely not a factor in the inital College Football Playoff rankings when the committee’s first selections are released on Nov. 5.

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The same can be said about the Tigers, however. The season-opening loss to a now five-loss USC team will not be looked at fondly in the eyes of the playoff committee, and the two-score loss against Texas A&M looks worse after the Aggies lost to South Carolina 44-20 during Week 10.

Only one team’s dream of playing in the initial 12-team College Football Playoff will stay alive after Saturday night. Oddsmakers predict the Crimson Tide as slight favorites on the road in Week 11, but the outcome is anybody’s guess heading into a pivotal week in the CFP race.