Losing Colorado likely just the beginning for next wave of realignment, Pac-12 movement

All seemed quiet on the conference realignment front with the 2023 season fast approaching. Then, it got loud again as Colorado announced its plans to join the Big 12 in 2024 — dealing another blow to the Pac-12.

By bringing in the Buffs, the Big 12 will now be at 13 teams next season. The sense was Brett Yormark isn’t done, and On3’s J.D. PicKell picked up those vibes, as well.

On3’s Eric Prisbell reported Arizona is a prime target for the Big 12, but PicKell pointed to two other Pac-12 programs who could leave. Perhaps the two biggest fishes in the pond are Oregon and Washington, and PicKell argued they might have to shoulder the load on multiple fronts without Colorado, USC and UCLA. That’s why he thinks they could be the next dominoes to fall.

“For the Pac-12, this is not the last team they’re going to lose, in my humble opinion,” PicKell said on The Hard Count. “I mean, Oregon — if you look behind yourself and you’re Oregon and you say, ‘Okay, we’re carrying a lot of the weight in this conference from a TV standpoint, from a revenue standpoint. Do we really want to tie ourselves to a conference that’s going to have Washington State and Oregon State? There’s no more USC and UCLA. There’s no more Colorado market. Like, are we sure we want to stick around here and continue to pay rent for everybody else in this conference?’

“Or, if you have a chance to collect millions of more dollars and go to the Big Ten or go to, shoot, maybe the Big 12. Who knows where they head? But I think Oregon and Washington have to be the next dominoes that you look at falling within the Pac-12 Conference. They’re very much unstable right now. … “So for Oregon and Washington, those the next two I would watch for the Pac-12. I don’t think these tectonic plates are done shifting. In fact, I guarantee they’re not done shifting. We’ll see if it happens before the season. But before 2024, I can almost guarantee that there will be another team joining the Big 12 Conference and if the Big 12 has their way, it’ll be one of those corner schools.”

Why the Pac-12 is in danger of falling off the Power Five level

It’s clear the Pac-12 isn’t stable at the moment, looking more like a game of Jenga as it works out its next media rights deal. That was part of the reason Colorado left so quickly after Pac-12 Media Day, PicKell said. Some teams to come up as possible additions are San Diego State — which has made its interest in joining the Pac-12 quite clear — at SMU. Some wildcards, though, include UNLV and Colorado State in the Mountain West.

But even with some additions, PicKell doesn’t know if the Pac-12’s outlook is what fans want it to be.

“The Pac-12, I think, is very much so in danger of drifting into the background of relevancy and looking a lot more like a Mountain West Conference than a Power Five conference that they have been historically,” PicKell said. “You don’t love it if you’re a Pac-12 fan, but that’s just the reality. It is a game of musical chairs. And the music started with Oklahoma and Texas saying we’re going to the SEC. They got their chairs in a Power Five conference or in a power whatever conference you want to call it. And then, USC and UCLA. Music still playing, they get their chair in the Big Ten Conference.

“Good for Colorado, saying we’re sitting down before the music stops. We’re going to find a chair in the Big 12 Conference and right now, the Pac-12 and a lot of teams in the Pac-12 are sort of circling all the chairs. And I’ll tell you what, man, I don’t think there’s going to be nearly enough chairs for everybody in that conference — for the Pac-12 as a whole — to be able to stay in this game how they have stayed in the game in the past.”