LSU vs. Florida point spread: Picking Tigers vs. Gators

There is one major question mark as LSU enters as a 13.5-point favorite against Florida in Week 11. Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels is considered day-to-day after taking a shot in last week’s loss to Alabama that landed him in the concussion protocol.

Daniels has been the unequivocal leader of LSU’s offense all season long, helping them to rank third in the country with 45.2 points per game with both his arm and legs. If he is unable to go, the Tigers would likely turn to Garrett Nussmeier, who brings experience from last season in both the SEC Championship and bowl game.

Max Olson of The Athletic joined On3‘s Andy Staples to discuss the matchup between LSU and Florida, as well as pose the question of whether this feels like a must-win for the Gators.

“Let’s just say theoretically Jayden Daniels does not play in this game,” he said. “You look at this final stretch for Florida and it is so rough. You’ve got LSU, Missouri and Florida State. Does Florida have to steal this game if Jayden Daniels doesn’t play?

“That’s not knocking Nussmeier at all. Nussmeier’s a player. He will move the ball on Florida. There’s no question. But does that turn into, man, you need to steal this game if you’re Florida?”

Given Florida’s schedule to close out the season, Staples tended to lean toward yes in response to Olson’s question. He doesn’t see the Gators being able to go on the road and win against a Missouri team that has looked impressive this season, and believes Florida State will have too much to play for in the annual rivalry game.

“I don’t think they get bowl eligible any other way,” he said. “At Missouri’s gonna be really rough. Especially at night, potentially cold. They’ve gotta steal this one. A lot of people have said, ‘Florida State, they’re just playing ACC competition.’ No. Florida State at that point is probably going to be trying to make sure it’s in the national title picture. You don’t wanna deal with that trying to get bowl eligible.”

Staples also brought up an interesting angle if Nussmeier does end up having to start the game. The quarterback is the son of former Gators offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, and Gators fans aren’t likely to take kindly to a loss.

Nussmeier was impressive in the second half of last year’s SEC title game against Georgia to finish with 294 yards passing, four touchdowns and an interception. So far this season, he has managed to go 17-of-33 for 196 yards and a TD while backing up Daniels.

So the LSU offense should continue to put up big numbers with Nussmier, especially against a Gators defense that ranks 10th in the SEC in points allowed per game.

“As Nick de la Torre pointed out yesterday, the psychological damage of losing to Doug Nussmeier’s kid,” Staples explained. “Doug Nussmeier was the OC at Florida under Jim McElwain. I actually think Doug Nussmeier was a pretty good OC. His career took some weird turns. He had to go to Michigan when Brady Hoke was on the way down because of the whole Alabama thing. It’s all messy. But that’s one where I think the Florida fans would be like, ‘come on.’

“But Garrett Nussmeier’s a good quarterback Most SEC teams would love to have Garrett Nussmeier as their starter.”

Even so, the Gators should also have no trouble moving the ball through the air against a porous LSU secondary. The Tigers are 11th in the SEC in passing defense and Gators quarterback Graham Mertz has looked much better over the past three weeks.

Staples pointed to several weapons in the Florida passing attack, saying he likes this game to reach the over on a 63.5-point total for that reason.

“You look at Florida and you look at how well Eugene Wilson’s playing,” he said. “Ricky Pearsall’s a very good receiver. Arlis Boardingham, their tight end, has become a more reliable target. Against this LSU secondary? We could conceivably see a 40-something-to-20-something game.”

Kickoff between LSU and Florida is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Bato Rouge.