MAILBAG: Coach of the Year at midway point, Why the polls are so bad, can DJ Lagway save Billy Napier?

The Week 7 mailbag wonders who is the Coach of the Year so far in 2024? Why are the polls so bad? Can DJ Lagway save Billy Napier’s job and more.

As always, you can hit me up on X with a DM or tweet @JesseReSimonton or you can email me at [email protected] for all future questions.

From Marc in Indiana: Who is your coach of the year? Curt Cignetti or the field?

Mercy. Right now, this is an impossible question to answer at the halfway point on the 2024 football calendar — there have been that many impressive head coaching jobs this year. 

Curt Cignetti could be an excellent choice for the 2024 Coach of the Year Award. The former James Madison head coach is a stunning 6-0 with Indiana and has the Hoosiers (who had a preseason win-total of 5.5) in position to seriously contend for a spot in the Big Ten title game or a potential College Football Playoff berth. 

But there might be another dozen head coaches who also have midseason resumes to win Coach of the Year. With a reminder that the Bear Bryant Coach of the Year Award is largely narrative-driven (per example: Nick Saban had five more national title rings than COY honors), here’s a host of other candidates (in no particular order) who I think deserve mention: 

Bryant Vincent, Louisiana-Monroe — Snubbed out of taking over for Bill Clark at UAB, Vincent is 5-1 (and 3-0 in the Sun Belt) at one of the more moribund programs in FBS. He also exacted some revenge on the Blazers, embarrassing Trent Dilfer’s program 32-6 in Week 2. 

Mario Cristobal, Miami — Cristobal goes against the up-and-comer or overachiever narrative that usually surrounds these conversations, but he deserves credit for landing Cam Ward, assembling a strong staff and building a roster that can compete for an ACC title. It took until Year 3, but better late than never. 

Clark Lea, Vanderbilt — Has any coach this season changed the tenor around his tenure more than Lea? He admitted he was all but fired in January, but his decision to do a 180 on the transfer portal has delivered the ‘Dores some of their best memories in program history. Transfer QB Diego Pavia leading Vandy to the upset over No. 1 Alabama is an all-timer, but that result wasn’t a fluke — neither was Vandy upsetting Va. Tech and Kentucky as two-touchdown underdogs. Vandy is 4-2 and easily could be 6-0 if it hadn’t collapsed against Missouri (OT loss) and Georgia State. 

Kalani Sitake, BYU — Sitake was a sneaky darkhorse hot seat candidate, but the longtime Cougs’ head coach has BYU in contention for a spot in the Big 12 Championship despite minimal preseason expectations. 

Matt Campbell, Iowa State — The Cyclones’ best coach in school history has led the program to its best start since 1938! We’re talking 86 years! With Rocco Becht at quarterback and a defense that is in the Top 10 in takeaways, Campbell has a dangerous team in 2024. 

Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State — The Sun Devils were picked to finish last in the Big 12, yet come mid-October, they’re 5-1 and right in the hunt for the race to Dallas. I’m not sure there’s a team in the country that has improved more from 2023 to 2024 than ASU, and Dillingham deserves major praise for that alone.

Pat Narduzzi, Pitt — On the heels of a 3-9 season, one of the most stubborn head coaches in college football finally admitted he needed to adapt or die, so he hired 31-year-old Kade Bell as Pitt’s new OC. The up-tempo, spread offense has since seen Pitt go from ACC cellar-dweller to its best start in 42 years. 

I’m sure I’m missing some other candidates, too. Big boys like Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning and Penn State’s James Franklin could all be in the mix by season’s end. Same for Jeff Monken at Army, Fran Brown at Syracuse, Jake Dickert at Washington State and Brian Newberry at Navy. 

Again, it’s a loaded crop of candidates right now. 

From Chris: Explain to me why the rankings are so bad? I’m a Miami fan (biased obviously) but why is Miami behind Georgia (which has a loss) and Ohio State (same)? Alabama beat UGA and is ranked lower? How does that make sense? Shouldn’t the results matter? Why is  Iowa State ahead of BYU in the polls? Is it all preseason bias? 

Well the good news is Chris, the polls are largely meaningly. Can they sway opinions and create narratives? Absolutely? But they don’t actually dictate what happens come season’s end. 

Now, as someone who tracks and predicts the AP Poll Top 25 each Sunday, I actually think they voters this year have become much more reactive to the weekly results than year’s past. Previously, there was a lack of volatility and movement — especially if a team won. But voters have become more willing to punish or praise a team based on how it performs in that particular week. 

Case in point: Even before losing at Alabama, Georgia was dropped from No. 1 after winning ugly at Kentucky. In the years I’ve been tracking the AP Poll, that typically didn’t happen. 

As for your particular gripes: Even though Ohio State has a loss on its ledger now, I still think the Buckeyes’ resume (and potential) is better than Miami’s (who haven’t played a ranked team — and might not all season). Georgia has not looked like a world-beater since the opener, but the Bulldogs still have a 31-point win over Clemson in their pocket. 

I don’t believe there’s any sort of preseason bias here because neither team was in any Top 25 rankings, but I agree that BYU should be slotted ahead (or right next to) Iowa State. It’s why I have BYU in my latest College Football Playoff Projections as the No. 4 seed, because I believe the committee sees it the same way.

The Cyclones have a nice win over Iowa (a very capable 4-2 team), but the Cougs have two current Top 25 wins over SMU and Kansas State — and they’ve bludgeoned preseason darlings Ariana by three touchdowns.   

My biggest issue with the latest AP Poll Top 25? 

Why is Michigan still ranked? The Wolverines are 4-2, and their best win is against a now three-loss USC. 

Vanderbilt, Arizona State, Washington State and Texas Tech all have either more impressive wins, records or both. 

Frank (a Gators fan) asks: If DJ Lagway gets Billy Napier to 6 wins does he keep his job?

I don’t see it. I feel like the hour glass has already turned over on Billy Napier, who is 14-17 at UF, and just 2-8 in his last 10 games against Power Conference teams. 

Florida had won two-straight games before coughing up a chance at a Top 10 upset at Tennessee last weekend. The result was largely Napier’s fault, with the same issues that have plagued the Gators for three seasons rearing their ugly heads at the most inopportune times: Special teams gaffes that strip away points, poor clock management, iffy play-calling, defensive busts. That’s not even to mention that Napier should’ve gone for two at the end of the fourth quarter when the aforementioned DJ Lagway threw the game-tying touchdown at the end of regulation. 

It is now officially the DJ Lagway Show in Gainesville, as Graham Mertz (who was much better than anyone anticipated the last two seasons for UF) suffered a season-ending knee injury. Lagway had settled into his ‘every third series’ role the last three games before Mertz got hurt, leading multiple scoring drives against Mississippi State and UCF. He’s averaging 10.6 yards per attempt, and his mobility has opened up Florida’s run game more-so than Mertz. Still, Lagway is a freshman, and he’s been prone to turnovers (four picks) and taking bad sacks. There’s no discounting his tremendous raw ability, but he’s going to make more mistakes than Mertz, which is why he wasn’t tabbed the starter already. 

For the Gators to have any hopes of making a bowl game, they have to beat Kentucky on Saturday. They still have games against Top 25 teams Texas, Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss on the schedule, so it’s going to take a herculean effort to win three more games. 

Napier, to his credit, has purposely shied away from tethering his fate as Florida’s coach to his 5-star freshman quarterback. But considering Lagway represents the only hope UF has right now, the kid is Napier’s only ‘Hail Mary’ shot at seeing a Year 4. 

James asks: There are less than 12 (10 or 11 I think) undefeated teams left at about the midway point of the season. So who is the best 1 and 2 loss team in your eyes?

Ohio State lost by one point in Autzen Stadium where it had the ball with a chance to kick a walk-off field goal if Will Howard didn’t lose track of the clock. So I think the Buckeyes are clearly the best one-loss team amongst the likes of Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Clemson, etc. Maybe UGA changes that conversation after this weekend?

Howard actually answered a lot of questions with his performance against Oregon, and while I have some concerns about OSU’s defense against really good offenses, they’re still a top-tier unit. 

The debate about the best two-loss team is much more interesting. 

Michigan is 4-2, but as noted above, the Wolverines shouldn’t be ranked in the Top 25 right now. So they’re out, IMO. 

The only other two-loss team in the polls is Ole Miss at No. 18. 

But what about Vandy, with wins over No. 1 Alabama, Kentucky (who beat Ole Miss) and Va. Tech? Iowa is 4-2 with a one-point loss to No. 9 Iowa State and a second-half blowout to No. 3 Ohio State. Georgia Tech is 5-2 with an upset over No. 10 Florida State to start the season, and a victory over an undefeated Duke team two weeks ago. 

The safe answer probably is still Ole Miss, considering the Rebels’ talent, upside and two losses by a combined six points. But there’s somethin’ about those ‘Dores, man.