MAILBAG: Dismissing SEC offseason talking points, Texas' national title odds after RB injuries, more
Football returns THIS WEEKEND. Sure, it’s a weak Week 0 slate (two of the four games aren’t even being played on the continental United States) but the 2024 season is here! That means the return of my weekly mailbag, where I’ll answer your questions about all things CFB.
As always, you can hit me up on X with a DM or tweet @JesseReSimonton or you can email me at [email protected].
Let’s roll.
From @SECMike: What is a popular SEC talking point this offseason that you aren’t buying (can be any team, player, coach, etc.)?
Great question from a friend of the column, so why not attack all three?
TEAM: Are we absolutely positive that Ole Miss is going to be awesome in 2024? I know the Rebels are going to be good — there’s simply too much raw talent.
But awesome?
I don’t care that Ole Miss has never had back-to-back 10+ win seasons, but as I recently pointed out on Twitter X, I do care that the Rebels had the nation’s best turnover margin in 2023 and were 4-0 in one-score games.
Those tend to regress towards the mean — especially the Rebels’ crazy fumble luck (11 fumbles, just one lost). So what if Lane Kiffin’s team coughs up the football a few more times and doesn’t win a nail-biter or two against LSU or Arkansas? Suddenly, the Rebels are a run-of-the-mill 8-4 team instead of a program believed to be on the cusp of a special, special season. And that would be seen as a massive disappointment after months of offseason hype.
PLAYER: SEC Mike/Missouri flag-bearer won’t like this one, but is Brady Cook really a consensus Top 5 quarterback in the league? Every preseason QB Rankings piece I’ve seen has Cook listed in the Top 5 — oftentimes right at No. 5.
Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers and Jalen Milroe? Sure. Jaxson Dart? Probably. But Cook? Consensus? Eh. I’m skeptical.
While think the Tigers’ quarterback is solid and is certainly surrounded by a wealth of weapons at wideout and receiver, it wouldn’t shock me at all if come the end of the year, Nico Iamaleva, Conner Weigman or Garrett Nussmeier takes Cook’s spot in the Top 5.
COACH: I think Florida is going to be a little better than people think, likely good enough to get to six wins and go bowling. That obviously is not what the expectations should be for a Gators program that’s won multiple national championships in the last two decades, but that doesn’t mean Billy Napier is some dead-man walking. Right now, I think the odds are stronger than not that Napier is UF’s head coach in 2025.
There are a slew of reasons for that (hardest schedule maybe ever? DJ Lagway, improved coaching staff, etc.), but one under-discussed element to Napier’s supposed simmering hot seat is the uncertainty around his own bosses.
Gators AD Scott Stricklin is not going to be allowed to hire a third football coach. So if Napier goes, Florida must clean house of the entire athletic department. But UF isn’t in a position to do that currently because Ben Sasse just resigned as university president and Kent Fuchs — the guy who hired Stricklin and was in charge when Napier came over from Louisiana-Lafayette — is back as the interim for at least the next 6-8 months. Under those circumstances, Florida is very unlikely to make such seismic changes.
So barring a total disastrous season — like 3-9 — I think Napier is probably back for a make-or-break season in 2025.
As a bonus to the coach question, I’ll also add I don’t buy the narrative that Bobby Petrino is waiting in the weeds to Littlefinger Sam Pittman. Arkansas will likely have a new coach next season — but it won’t be their former motorcycle man and current OC.
From Texas Dave: Do the Longhorns’ injuries at tailback change your thoughts on their championship odds this season?
Absolutely.
Texas has had rotten luck with preseason injuries at a position where A) depth really matters and B) is a critical component to Steve Sarkisian’s offense.
The Longhorns have lost a pair of tailbacks for the year in projected starter CJ Baxter (knee) and freshman Christian Clark (Achilles). They now have just three scholarship backs on the depth chart with Jaydon Blue, sophomore Tre Wisner and freshman Jerrick Gibson — and they haven’t played a SEC game yet.
Texas can still win the national championship, but its margin for error has certainly taken a hit this preseason. Sarkisian loves to pound the rock and then dial up shot plays. Before Jonathon Brooks tore his ACL late last season, he had over 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns splitting carries with Baxter. Before that, Bijan Robinson had consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and Roschon Johnson was routinely chipping in 550+ seasons. In addition to the pure rushing yardage, Texas’ tailbacks are heavily involved in the passing game.
Blue is an explosive, capable playmaker (over 7.5 yards per touch in 2023), but he’s not an overly big tailback (just 6-foot, 190). Neither is Wisner.
Can they withstand a season’s worth of work in the SEC? They’re going to have to if the Longhorns hope to fulfill their championship expectations this fall.
From Jason: Who is an under-the-radar transfer everyone will be talking about at the end of September?
Tough question. With so many potential options, I narrowed it down to a couple of candidates in some spotlight opportunities during the first month of the season.
NC State WR Noah Rogers¸— The former blue-chip recruit couldn’t crack the rotation at Ohio State, so Rogers transferred back to his home state of North Carolina to play for the Wolfpack. By all accounts, he’s had an outstanding preseason and is in line to be a factor in NC State’s offseason this fall. KC Conception remains the Wolfpack’s No. 1 wideout, but if Rogers makes a game-changing play against Tennessee or Clemson (both in September) then suddenly he’ll become a transfer everyone knows about.
Texas EDGE Trey Moore — The UTSA pass rusher should already be a household name after recording 14 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss in 2023 — but that’s what happens when you play for a G5 team. Now at Texas, Moore will be in the spotlight as one of the Longhorns’ best edge rushers. In the first month of the season, Moore will get to play against his former Roadrunners teammates and T-off against a Michigan offensive line in transfer.
Oklahoma EDGE Caiden Woullard — Similarly to Trey Moore, Woullard shouldn’t be considered an under-the-radar transfer after totaling 10 sacks and 12 tackles for loss for Miami (OH) last season. He’s had a rather quiet fall camp, but he’ll have plenty of opportunities to make some noise in September with games against Temple and Houston (two terrible OLs) and marquee SEC affairs with Tennessee and Auburn.