MAILBAG: Fascinating Alabama, Michigan, Washington hypothetical, Penn State and Notre Dame on upset alert, what's wrong with Carson Beck

The Week 8 mailbag offers up a doozy Alabama, Michigan and Washington hypothetical. Plus, are No. 12 Notre Dame (vs. No. 25 Navy) and No. 3 Penn State (at Wisconsin) on upset alert? And what’s wrong with Georgia quarterback Carson Beck?

As always, you can hit me up on X with a DM or tweet @JesseReSimonton or you can email me at [email protected] for all future questions.

Jerry asks: In a crazy world of hypotheticals, Alabama, Michigan and Washington all have new coaches this season, but what would their records be if Nick Saban, Jim Harbaugh and Kalen DeBoer were all still the head coaches for their teams? How much would their seasons look different?

This is a fascinating question, but I’m going to give you an answer you probably won’t expect: Would any of the teams’ records look all that drastically different?

Let’s take it case-by-case. 

Alabama is 5-2 with a historic loss as the No. 1 team at Vandy, nearly getting upset as a two-touchdown favorite at home to South Carolina and then falling to Tennessee last weekend. But if Nick Saban were still in charge, there’s a very reasonable argument the Tide could/would still be 5-2 at this point of the season. 

Would Jalen Milroe, who’s had his ups and downs in 2024, be playing better in a Tommy Rees offense? Alabama’s secondary would benefit from Caleb Downs still being on the roster, but the rest of the unit would still be young and super inexperienced. Ryan Williams would remain the lone, consistent threat at receiver — and he’s a freshman. 

Alabama probably doesn’t lose at Vandy, but maybe it doesn’t race to a 28-0 lead against Georgia. The Saban-led Tide lost at Tennessee two years ago, and needed to rally from down two-scores against the Vols at home just last season. Saban is forever the GOAT, but throughout last season, the program’s foundation was starting to show some cracks. Just like this year, Alabama was plagued by penalties, had coaching problems, was inefficient running the ball and had inconsistent QB play. 

Seems pretty familiar.

With Michigan, this is a harder hypothetical to ponder because unlike Saban, who sprung his retirement a bit out of left field, Jim Harbaugh had one foot out the door the entire 2023 season. It always seemed like a ‘Last Dance’ deal, and sure enough, he led his alma mater to a national title and bounced. 

There’s no doubt that with Harbaugh still in charge (meaning Jesse Minter probably stays as DC, the strength and conditioning program remains the standard-bearer, etc.), the Wolverines would be much better coached than they have been this season. 

But the roster was always going to be in a transition year after losing so much talent to the NFL Draft. Harbaugh hadn’t capitalized on Michigan’s success with Top 10 recruiting classes, and he is partially to blame for the program’s issues at quarterback right now. 

Michigan probably has just 1-2 losses instead of three right now, but Harbuagh got out when he did because the chickens were always going to come home to roost in 2024. 

As for Washington, last season was an all-in year for Kalen DeBoer’s team, too. They had fifth and sixth-year senior starters on both sides of the ball. Michael Penix Jr., Rome Odunze and Bralen Trice were all headed to the NFL. DeBoer wasn’t set to bring in a Top 25 recruiting class, either. 

I’m sure he would’ve hit the portal again for reinforcements, but as we’ve seen, that’s hardly a guaranteed avenue to success on an annual basis. Will Rogers was set to be Penix’s heir apparent at quarterback, and despite briefly entering the portal, he did in fact take over the QB1 job with the Huskies — just for a different coach. 

Kalen DeBoer is a better play-caller than Jedd Fisch, but the Washington head coach isn’t chopped liver there, either. Again, perhaps a game or two record-wise goes differently thus far (Washington is 4-3 before this weekend’s game at No. 13 Indiana), but I’m not sure the results for any of these programs look dramatically different just because they lost their former coaches. 

Ryan asks: What’s wrong Carson Beck? Is he hurt? Is the receivers fault?

People are asking! 

It’s truly been a strange deal watching Carson Beck this season. The guy who looked so smooth, accurate and decisive for most of 2023 has rarely flashed those traits with any consistency through seven games this season. 

Beck has been a Jekyll and Hyde quarterback, which is why he’s practically off all Heisman Trophy watchlists and has seen his NFL Draft stock tank. 

Through seven games, Beck has completed 66% of his throws for 15 touchdowns and eight picks. He actually has more touchdowns at this point of the season compared to 2023, but his completion percentage and yards per attempt are down, and his interceptions (six all of last year vs. eight already this season) are way up. 

Of course Beck misses Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey. Georgia’s receivers have letdown Beck with too many drops (four more in the win over Texas), with the Bulldogs ranking No. 2 nationally in in yards lost to drops.

And yet, the senior quarterback is also simply missing wide open receivers or asking the wideouts/tight ends to make way more tougher, contested catches than necessary. 

Against Alabama, Auburn, and Texas, Beck had 4-5 complete head-scratching throws. He’s forcing way too many throws with poor mechanics.

I’m no QB scout/guru, but it’s not hard to see how Beck’s footwork and base are totally misaligned way too often. And yet, when the fundamentals are right, Beck will flash that 1st Round potential — like the clutch seed to Arian Smith on 3rd-and-10 backed up deep in UGA’s territory. One takeaway I have noticed with Beck is he doesn’t let one awful series carry over to the next. He’ll keep slingin’ it, which is why he was able to shake off a terrible half against Alabama and actually rally Georgia from a four-touchdown deficit to a lead in the second half. 

For all of UGA’s passing game issues this year, the Bulldogs still rank in the Top 5 nationally in explosive passing plays over both 20 and 30 yards. So if Beck can rediscover last season’s accuracy and cut down on the turnovers, the passing game is positioned to be really good. 

Can he? We’ll see.

From Peter (a Nittany Lions fan): Who is on bigger upset alert this weekend between Penn State (at Wisconsin) or Notre Dame (at Navy)?

For starters, both teams could lose this weekend. Will they? Probably not, but it’s definitely on the table.

The spread in the Penn State-Wisconsin game has hovered around a touchdown, while Navy presents some bad matchups for a banged-up Notre Dame defense.

Are the Nittany Lions really the No. 3 in the country? We’re going to find out in the next two weeks. Coming off their idle date, they play at Camp Randall Stadium at night and then host No. 4 Ohio State next weekend. So Saturday is a classic lookahead spot — this for a PSU team that has had a couple of strange road games already this season (at West Virginia in the opener where a weather delay totally changed the game, and a two-touchdown comeback against a wilting USC team). 

Wisconsin has won three straight games by at least 20 points, but against any quarterback with a functional arm (Alabama and USC), the Badgers’ pass defense has been shredded. Penn State has only beaten one team with a winning record (No. 20 Illinois), but I think Drew Allar cooks on Saturday night and PSU remains unbeaten before its showdown with Ohio State. 

Despite a much larger spread (Notre Dame -12.5), the Irish might be in a trickier spot on Saturday. 

The game is at Met Life Stadium in New Jersey, so I’m not sure how much that matters, but the Irish blitzed the Midshipmen 42-3 last season. So will they give Navy their full attention?

They better. 

Navy is averaging 45 points per game and has sunk teams from the jump. It ranks in the Top 10 nationally in rushing and passing success rate. Blake Horvath has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country (12.3 yards per attempt, 10 touchdowns to one pick with 621 rushing yards and 10 scores), and he’ll be facing an Irish defense down multiple starters on the defensive line. 

Notre Dame’s backups did an excellent job slowing down Georgia Tech’s ground game last weekend (just 64 yards allowed at 2.2 per carry), but that also had a lot to do with the Bees playing a backup quarterback who offered zero threat as a passer. 

That’s not the case with this Navy team. 

If the Irish try to sleepwalk past Navy as they did against Northern Illinois, their playoff hopes could go bottoms-up. 

As a bonus: A couple of other sneaky Top 25 teams that should be on upset alert: No. 21 SMU, which plays at 6-1 Duke, and No. 11 BYU, which must travel across the country and play at UCF. The Knights aren’t very good, yet the spread in that game has the Cougs as a +1.5-point underdog. (INSERT EYES EMOJI).