MAILBAG: Reviewing the Connor Stalions doc, is Texas overrated, which CFB team will be the talk of Week 1?

We’re a day away from the Week 1 bender that is the true start of the 2024 college football season. So let’s wrap up some final preseason thoughts, as well as a review of the Connor Stallions documentary. 

As always, you can hit me up on X with a DM or tweet @JesseReSimonton or you can email me at [email protected] for all future questions.

Let’s roll.

From Matt: What were your thoughts on the Connor Stalions documentary?

My prediction on Monday’s Andy Staples Show that the Netflix Connor Stalions doc “Untold: Sign Stealer” would be a total nothing-burger was wrong.  

Instead, it was 90 minutes of PR, spin and victimhood — so at times nominal interesting.

As has come to be with these “Untold” docs (see: last year’s “Swamp Kings”), mostly everything in them has already been reported previously. We knew that Stalions was a zealot who so badly wanted to work at Michigan that he became (maybe?) the first person to ever to serve in the Marines to just to become a football coach. 

We knew that Stalions wasn’t going to actually admit to anything interesting, and there would be no smoking gun to prove his innocence or guilt. We knew that he wouldn’t actually give up the goods on his “manifesto.”

While the peak behind the curtain with NCAA investigators was novel, Stalions (and his lawyer’s) defiance with the NCAA was framed as him being a victim of this whole ordeal.

Perhaps most importantly, still have no idea how good Stalions was at actually stealing signs or how much it even helped Michigan win its 2023 national title. Stalions states that he was simply better at codebreaking than anyone else in college football — the veracity of such claims were never actually explored, though. 

Ultimately, the doc was mostly an absurd watch on an absurd character. Despite plenty of suspenseful music and shots of back-alleys with graffiti, it lacked actual intrigue and answers.

It did put a face to a meme and a name associated with a manifesto, but that’s about it. 

Jason asks: Georgia Tech beating FSU was the story of Week 0, so what unranked team will everyone be talking about after this weekend?

There’s a couple different ways to attack this question. 

Are we talking a stunning upset like the Bees pulled off against Florida State, or simply an unranked team impressing and making us recalibrate how they should be viewed moving forward?

Week 1 presents a couple of answers for both categories. 

The most obvious unranked candidate that will be the talk of CFP next week is Florida — really for good or worse.

In a game that’s been dubbed everything from the Toilet Bowl, the Anxiety Bowl to the Pitchforks and Torches Bowl, Billy Napier’s Gators badly need to beat Mario Cristobal’s Miami Hurricanes on Saturday. 

A loss would trigger an epic meltdown powerful enough to crash Message Board Geniuses. A win would earn Napier two weeks of goodwill before another pressure-filled home date with Texas A&M.

Elsewhere, West Virginia has an opportunity to pull off a Top 10 upset against No. 7 Penn State to change the narrative around its program in 2024. 

Morgantown will be a buzzed up, blazing hornet’s nest on Saturday at high noon, and Penn State is breaking in new offensive, defensive and special teams coordinators. The Nittany Lions are favored by 8.5-points with good reason, but in a Week 1 spot, they can get got by Garrett Greene, CJ Donaldson & Co. 

If West Virginia can beat Penn State, then the Mountaineers can absolutely compete for a wide-open Big 12 title. 

The last obvious candidate for this question is Colorado — and like Florida, for good or worse. 

If Deion Sanders’ team smokes North Dakota State, then the Buffs will suck up tons of internet oxygen like they did in 2023 when they started 3-0. 

But if Shedeur Sanders and Colorado lose at home to an FCS team (former powerhouse or not), then the schadenfreude at Coach Prime’s expense will also dominate podcasts and column headlines. 

Kenneth asks: Is Texas the most overrated team in 2024? You don’t lose that much talent & just pick up where you left off. Especially defensively. They won’t be as dominant up front & their DBs are a liability. Great OL & good QB, but top weapons are gone & lost 1st & 2nd string RBs already.

Nope. After one week, Florida State is the only known overrated team so far in 2024. But stay tuned, there will be more!

Is Texas one of them? TBD. 

The Longhorns are really talented, but I agree that they have concerns along the defensive interior without Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat. I’m not as down on the secondary and while they lost some really good playmakers, they portal’d in some dudes in Isaiah Bond, Amari Niblack, Silas Bolden and Matthew Golden. Chemistry could be an issue early on, but this is a group that will make plays. 

CJ Baxter was set to split carries with Jaydon Blue, but freshman Christian Clark was running 4th-string and was more of an insurance loss. 

In the end, we’ll know a lot about the true potential of this Texas team (ranked No. 4 in most preseason polls) in its Week 2 game at Michigan.

Marcus asks: Why are you so down on LSU? They have an awesome offensive line. Garrett Nussmeier showed what he is capable of against Wisconsin in the bowl game. Blake Baker should improve their defense. What’s not to like?

Well Marcus, I first want to point out that in my preseason Stock Report piece that I acknowledged we actually don’t know much of anything about these teams before they play a game. We think we do, but it’s all hypotheses, theories and guesstimations. 

So perhaps you’re right, and LSU is a team that should be seen in a positive light as a potential national title contender. 

With bookend tackles Will Campbell and Emory Jones, the OL is legit. Nussmeier has patiently waited for his moment, and he’s a gunslinger armed with some really good weapons (wideouts Kyren Lacy, CJ Daniels, tight end Mason Taylor). 

But LSU’s No. 1-ranked offense from last season was historically dominant. For all the optimism around Nussmeier, this is still a unit that must replace a Heisman-winning quarterback, two first-round wide receivers and its offensive coordinator. 

So will the Tigers be able to run the ball without the threat of the QB’s legs? Is Lacy ready to be WR1? 

There are legitimate unknowns, and that’s before you then account for a defense that was terrible in 2023. 

Can a bad unit improve? Sure. The coaching should be better with Baker, Kevin Peoples and Bo Davis, but the personnel is largely the same. 

Maybe Harold Perkins Jr. replicates his flashes of brilliance in 2022 or perhaps the inconsistencies is just part of the package. The Tigers didn’t adequately address the holes on the defensive line and their secondary features a combination of sophomore and seniors who all struggled last fall. 

This is a prove it year for Brian Kelly and LSU. Sunday’s marquee matchup against USC should be telling on a lot of fronts. 

So maybe I’m wrong and shortchanging the Tigers. But until I see it,  I remain bearish on the Bayou Bengals in 2024.