MAILBAG: What's wrong with Oregon, is Marcus Freeman on the hot seat, SEC playoff pretender
Week 2 was fun, huh? After unveiling some overreactions and an updated stock report, it’s time to answer some reader questions.
As always, you can hit me up on X with a DM or tweet @JesseReSimonton or you can email me at [email protected] for all future questions.
Let’s roll.
Luke asks: Jesse, what’s wrong with Oregon? In Dan Lanning’s first two seasons, the Ducks were blowing out FCS teams. Now they can barely beat Idaho and should’ve lost to Boise State.
The Ducks are certainly treading water through the first two games of the 2024 season. Dan Lanning’s team is probably thrilled to just to be facing an opponent from a state other than Idaho for the rest of the year.
The Oregon defense (especially the line) hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, but the more pressing concerns surround the offense. Luke brings up the fact Oregon was previously blowing out FCS teams under Lanning — and he’s right. Even playing vanilla offenses, Oregon was putting up 70+ points on Eastern Washington and Portland St. the last two seasons, and now this year, they struggled to score three touchdowns against the Vandals.
The offensive line is banged up (they’ve been starting a walk-on at center) and struggling badly. Oregon has already allowed seven sacks — this from a unit that was the best pass-protecting line in the country the last two years with just five sacks allowed all season in 2022 and 2023. The run game hasn’t gotten going (just 4.4 yards per carry, an explosive rush rate in the 110s), and the offense as a whole has really lacked long scrimmage plays (No. 2 nationally in 2023 versus 83rd so far in 2024).
I haven’t even mentioned quarterback Dillon Gabriel yet, but the Oklahoma transfer certainly looks like a significant downgrade from Bo Nix so far in Will Stein’s system. The down-to-down efficiency is meh (47% passing success rate, 46th nationally) and there are hardly any vertical shots. It’s all super short, quick-game stuff (Gabriel has just seven throws all season over 20 yards).
Another concerning trend? Oregon’s passing offense looks very predictable right now. The southpaw quarterback pretty much only throws to the center or left side of the field. Of his 70 attempts this season, just five — FIVE!!! — throws have been to the right side of the formation, per PFF. You better bet defensive coordinators are keying in on that trend for the rest of the season.
The best news for the Ducks is they clearly have awesome special teams (two touchdowns were the difference in surviving against Boise State) and they have a schedule (Oregon State, UCLA, Michigan State all before the huge showdown with Ohio State) that allows them to iron out these kinks. This remains a super-talented team with a really good head coach.
Let’s see if they can get their ducks in a row — pun intended.
From Patrick: Is Marcus Freeman on the hot seat after losing to Northern Illinois?
Not yet, but it’s fair to question Freeman’s long-term status as the Irish’s head coach after another inexplicable loss. The spiciest of takes here is that Saturday’s “been here before” loss was the official beginning of the end for Freeman. He won’t be fired in 2024, but he’s now authored the line on his Notre Dame tombstone — whenever he is eventually canned.
Considering all the pressure on Freeman entering Year 3, I’m not sure there’s any path to redemption from Saturday’s stunner. He was supposed to be past all that. His inexperience as a head coach was no longer supposed to be an excuse.
And yet.
Freeman admirably took culpability for the program’s worst loss in nearly 30 years, but his comments actually did more harm than good, IMO. He reminded all the Notre Dame faithful that indeed Notre Dame had been here before under his very watch.
The terrible, no-show loss to Northern Illinois came after similar stunners to Marshall and Stanford. Then there are the games the Irish could’ve (or should’ve) won in the last two years but didn’t due to coaching malpractice — like having just 10 men on the field against Ohio State last season or collapsing against Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.
There’s a lot that’s been fairly written about Brian Kelly’s tenure with the Irish, but outside his first season in South Bend, Kelly wasn’t losing to the worst teams on Notre Dame’s schedule. Freeman might have the Irish recruiting at a better clip than Kelly, but are Notre Dame fans suddenly reminiscing about all those boring 10-2 seasons over continued inexcusable results?
What makes Notre Dame’s performance against NIU so eye-opening is the fact the Irish were seven days removed from a win at Texas A&M. After nine months of hype and build-up, the victory in College Station seemed to rubber-stamp Freeman’s vision for the program. It was a proof-of-concept win. Or not.
The loss to NIU not only likely dashed Notre Dame’s playoff hopes, but like an abracadabra spell, made all the goodwill Freeman established just a week prior disappear. If the Irish don’t make the 12-team CFP (with this season’s schedule), then Freeman will enter the 2025 season on a scorching hot seat.
GamecocksJunkie asks: Did South Carolina shut up all haters by upsetting Kentucky last weekend? The defense is super strong. Sellers is only going to improve. Sanders is good. We can beat LSU this weekend. Tell me why this team can’t win 8+ games?
South Carolina’s upset over UK was among the more shocking results last Saturday — although that didn’t make it any less funny that Mark Stoops just can’t beat Shane Beamer.
The Gamecocks have one of the better defensive lines in college football, and the way they harassed UK’s poor offensive line and quarterback Brock Vandagriff (15 hurries, four sacks) would be considered a crime in most states. Georgia Tech transfer Kyle Kennard (3.5 sacks) has been productive immediately, while 5-star freshman Dylan Stewart (2.5 sacks) is already drawing double and triple-teams. Add in veteran defensive tackles Tonka Hemingway and T.J. Sanders, senior linebacker Debo Williams and safety Nick Emmanwori, and this is a defense that’s going to keep South Carolina in most games.
But 8+ wins? Let’s not get ahead of our skies just yet. Remember, we’re just two weeks removed from South Carolina being very fortunate to win against Ole Dominion.
The offense remains a real concern.
South Carolina only mustered 250 yards against UK. LaNorris Sellers hit a couple of deep shots, but he had a bad interception and is completing just 55% of his passes this season. The ‘Cocks don’t have many playmakers on the perimeter, which makes the fact that 5-star sophomore Nyck Harbor can’t find the field (zero touches so far this season) all the more alarming.
I also don’t have nearly your faith in Arkansas transfer tailback Rocket Sanders, either. He looks like he’s running on ‘E’ to me. Is he still hurt from last season or has he run out of jet fuel after a terrific 2022 season (just 3.8 yards per carry on 37 attempts this year).
Beamer has proven he can beat Kentucky before, but can South Carolina win a game against the likes of LSU (which comes to Columbia this weekend with College GameDay in town), Oklahoma or Texas A&M?
Even with a stout defensive line, can the ‘Cocks even be competitive against Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri or Clemson?
We should know a lot more about 2024 South Carolina after Saturday, but I will say, this is probably a bowl team — which wasn’t something I believed during the preseason.
Mark asks: Which undefeated SEC team (setting aside Georgia and Texas for obvious reasons) is most likely to fall out of the playoff picture? Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, or Missouri?
I won’t go super long on this one: The most logical choice is Alabama — and I say that as someone who is super bullish on Kalen DeBoer and the Tide.
But Ole Miss and Missouri have cake schedules compared to the other teams mentioned, and Tennessee looks like an avalanche so far in 2024.
The Tide looks like they have some fleas, though. The offensive line is banged up and underperforming again. Jalen Milroe is still finding his way in DeBoer’s offense and the secondary could get exposed against above-average passing attacks.
I don’t think the Tide are in any real danger at Wisconsin this Saturday, but then they host Georgia in two weeks, with remaining big games at Tennessee, Missouri at home, at LSU and at Oklahoma. A 9-3 or 8-4 finish isn’t out of the question — especially compared to the other SEC contenders.